Detecting deterrence from patrol data

The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols’ own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE-E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE-E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE-ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE-ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE-E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching-activity-specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE-ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment.     

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975–2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.     

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density–yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.     

Patients' attitudes following chorionic villus sampling

The attitudes of 190 patients who had undergone chorionic villus sampling (CVS) were assessed by means of a questionnaire. One hundred and fifty-two patients replied of whom 68 (45 per cent) were referred because of increased maternal age and in the other 84 cases the indications included previous chromosomal abnormalities, fetal sexing, DNA analysis, and biochemical analysis. One hundred and twenty-two patients had a transcervical procedure, 24 had a transabdominal, and six patients required both procedures. One hundred and forty-one patients (93 per cent) reported CVS to be a satisfactory procedure, and the same percentage thought earlier diagnosis was beneficial. Thirty-nine patients (81 per cent) reported a better experience with CVS than with a previous amniocentesis. A majority of patients (93 per cent) wished a CVS in a future pregnancy and 137 patients (97 per cent) would accept a risk of miscarriage from the procedure of twice that quoted for amniocentesis (1 per cent).     

Characterization of Fine Particulate Matter Produced by Combustion of Residual Fuel Oil

ABSTRACT

Combustion experiments were carried out on four different residual fuel oils in a 732-kW boiler. PM emission samples were separated aerodynamically by a cyclone into fractions that were nominally less than and greater than 2.5 |j.m in diameter. However, examination of several of the samples by computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy (CCSEM) revealed that part of the PM_2.5 fraction consists of carbonaceous cenospheres and vesicular particles that range up to 10 |j.m in diameter. X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy data were obtained at the S, V, Ni, Fe, Cu, Zn, and As K-edges and at the Pb L-edge. Deconvolution of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) region of the S spectra established that the dominant molecular forms of S present were sulfate (26-84% of total S) and thiophene (13-39% of total S). Sulfate was greater in the PM_2.5 samples than in the PM₂₅₊ samples. Inorganic sulfides and elemental sulfur were present in lower percentages. The Ni XANES spectra from all of the samples agreed fairly well with that of NiSO₄, while most of the V spectra closely resembled that of vanadyl sulfate (VO?SO₄?xH₂O). The other metals investigated (i.e., Fe, Cu, Zn, and Pb) also were present predominantly as sulfates. Arsenic was present as an arsen-ate (As⁺⁵). X-ray diffraction patterns of the PM_2.5 fraction exhibit sharp lines due to sulfate compounds (Zn, V, Ni, Ca, etc.) superimposed on broad peaks due to amorphous carbons. All of the samples contain a significant organic component, with the loss on ignition (LOI) ranging from 64 to 87% for the PM_2.5 fraction and from 88 to 97% for the PM_2.5+ fraction. Based on ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis, the carbon is predominantly condensed in graphitic structures. Aliphatic structure was detected in only one of seven samples examined.     

Daily Mortality in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area and Size-Classified Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Time-series of daily mortality data from May 1992 to September 1995 for various portions of the seven-county Philadelphia, PA, metropolitan area were analyzed in relation to weather and a variety of ambient air quality parameters. The air quality data included measurements of size-classified PM, SO₄ ^2-, and H+ that had been collected by the Harvard School of Public Health, as well as routine air pollution monitoring data. Because the various pollutants of interest were measured at different locations within the metropolitan area, it was necessary to test for spatial sensitivity by comparing results for different combinations of locations. Estimates are presented for single pollutants and for multiple-pollutant models, including gaseous pollutants and mutually exclusive components of PM (PM_2.5 and coarse particles, SO₄ ^2- and non-SO₄ ^2- portions of total suspended particulate [TSP] and PM₁₀), measured on the day of death and the previous day.

We concluded that associations between air quality and mortality were not limited to data collected in the same part of the metropolitan area; that is, mortality for one part may be associated with air quality data from another, not necessarily neighboring, part. Significant associations were found for a wide variety of gaseous and particulate pollutants, especially for peak O₃. Using joint regressions on peak O₃ with various other pollutants, we found that the combined responses were insensitive to the specific other pollutant selected. We saw no systematic differences according to particle size or chemistry. In general, the associations between daily mortality and air pollution depended on the pollutant or the PM metric, the type of collection filter used, and the location of sampling. Although peak O₃ seemed to exhibit the most consistent mortality responses, this finding should be confirmed by analyzing separate seasons and other time periods.