A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts into Existing Water Resource Management Practices1

Gong, Gavin, Lucien Wang, Laura Condon, Alastair Shearman, and Upmanu Lall, 2010. A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts Into Existing Water Resource Management Practices. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):574-585. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00435.x Abstract: Climate-based streamflow forecasting, coupled with an adaptive reservoir operation policy, can potentially improve decisions by water suppliers and watershed stakeholders. However, water suppliers are often wary of straying too far from their current management practices, and prefer forecasts that can be incorporated into existing system modeling tools. This paper presents a simple framework for utilizing streamflow forecasts that works within an existing management structure. Climate predictors are used to develop seasonal inflow forecasts. These are used to specify operating rules that connect to the probability of future (end of season) reservoir states, rather than to the current storage, as is done now. By considering both current storage and anticipated inflow, the likelihood of meeting management goals can be improved. The upper Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States is used to demonstrate the basic idea. Physically plausible climate-based forecasts of March-April reservoir inflow are developed. Existing simulation tools and rule curves for the system are used to convert the inflow forecasts to reservoir level forecasts. Operating policies are revised during the forecast period to release less water during forecasts of low reservoir level. Hindcast simulations demonstrate reductions of 1.6% in the number of drought emergency days, which is a key performance measure. Forecasts with different levels of skill are examined to explore their utility.     

Effects of sediment quality on macroinvertebrates in the Sunraysia region of the Murray-Darling Rivers, Australia

A field-based microcosm approach was tested to identify deterioration of sediment quality in waterways using freshwater macroinvertebrates. The method can potentially identify the nature of contaminants based on species-specific responses. Sediments were collected from the Murray and Darling Rivers and irrigation drains within the Sunraysia region of south-eastern Australia and compared to non-polluted reference sediment. Clean sediments were also spiked with fertiliser to test whether nutrients affected the aquatic fauna. Seven of the eight sediments from the Sunraysia region had a negative impact on the macroinvertebrates, in particular sediment from the Darling River, which supported an impoverished fauna. Three species of chironomid showed varied responses to sediment quality and, although it was hypothesised that nutrients may have impacted on the macroinvertebrate fauna, the results suggest that other pollutants are also involved. The field-based microcosm method proved effective for determining the impact of sediment quality on indigenous macroinvertebrates.     

ANALYSIS OF A KARSTIC AQUIFER MANAGEMENT PROBLEM BY FUZZY COMPOSITE PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: A multiple objective framework for water resources problems possessing uncertain or imprecise elements is provided using distance-based concepts, fuzzy set theory, and fuzzy arithmetic. The case of regional management of a karstic aquifer in Hungary in which six conflicting objectives and six alternatives have been identified illustrates the methodology The objectives are classified into three groups of two objectives each, namely: (1) environmental (aesthetics, thermal springs temperature), (2) economic (mining, tourism), and (3) water quality (nitrates, phosphates). Both environmental objectives are formulated under fuzziness, and all objectives are scaled using the extension principle. Fuzzy compromise programming (FCP-I) is then applied; here, all six objectives are entered in a single l_p norm measuring the distance between each alternative and an ideal point. Next, fuzzy composite programming (FCP-II) is developed; here, a trade off is first made within each group of objectives, and then an upper level trade-off takes place between the three groups. The fuzzy numbers describing each alternative as a result from applying these techniques are ranked to yield an ordering of the alternatives. The results of applying FCP.I, FCP-II, and two different ordering techniques are compared. The FCP-II technique appears to provide a relatively simple approach at hierarchical or multilevel multiple objective decision-making, where uncertainty is described by fuzziness. (KEY TERMS: compromise programming; fuzzy arithmetic; fuzzy sets; hierarchical criteria; karstic aquifer; l_p, norms; mining; multiple objectives; thermal springs.)     

Promising results from the first biological control programme against a solanaceous weed (Solanum elaeagnifolium)

Two leaf-feeding chrysomelid beetles, Leptinotarsa texana and L. defecta, have been successfully established on Solanum elaeagnifolium, a solanaceous weed inadvertently introduced into South Africa from North America during the early 1900s. Unlike L. defecta, which remains localised and scarce, L. texana has proliferated at a number of release sites. Surveys of the damage caused by L. texana on S. elaeagnifolium showed that in some situations the beetles reached densities where the host plants were completely stripped of leaves, flowers and bark, whereas fruits were not eaten by the beetles. Longer term studies in plots with and without L. texana showed that even at relatively low levels of abundance of the beetles, the growth of S. elaeagnifolium was suppressed and the capacity of the plants to produce fruits was severely curtailed. As a result L. texana has the potential to be an effective biological control agent of S. elaeagnifolium in South Africa and elsewhere.