Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

An Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology for the calibration of water quality models

This paper proposes an Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology (IMCM) to solve the parameter estimation problem in water quality models. The methodology is based on Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and it operates by means of four modules: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Moving Feasible Ranges (MFR), Statistical Analysis of the Joint Posterior Distribution (SAD) and Uncertainty Propagation Analysis (UPA). The main innovation of the new proposal lies in the combination of MCMC and MFR modules which provides the joint posterior distribution of the calibrated parameters following the classical Bayesian approach. While MCMC module, based on Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm, is specially designed to sample complex joint posterior shapes within certain parameter ranges, the MFR readjusts these ranges until the coverage of the feasible parameter space is guaranteed. Once the joint posterior distribution is properly defined, the SAD provides the parameter statistics and the UPA performs an analysis of the uncertainty propagation through the model. The possibilities of the new proposal have been tested on the basis of a simple model featuring different activated sludge batch experiments. IMCM has been implemented in Matlab and it is prepared to be easily connected to any software package.     

Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.     

Disappearing plants: why they hide and how they return

Prolonged dormancy is a life-history stage in which mature plants fail to resprout for one or more growing seasons and instead remain alive belowground. Prolonged dormancy is relatively common, but the proximate causes and consequences of this intriguing strategy have remained elusive. In this study we tested whether stored resources are associated with remaining belowground, and investigated the resource costs of remaining belowground during the growing season. We measured stored resources at the beginning and end of the growing season in Astragalus scaphoides, an herbaceous perennial in southwest Montana, USA. At the beginning of the growing season, dormant plants had lower concentrations of stored mobile carbon (nonstructural carbohydrates, NSC) than did emergent plants. Surprisingly, during the growing season, dormant plants gained as much NSC as photosynthetically active plants, an increase most likely due to remobilization of structural carbon. Thus, low levels of stored NSC were associated with remaining belowground, and remobilization of structural carbon may allow for dormant plants to emerge in later seasons. The dynamics of NSC in relation to dormancy highlights the ability of plants to change their own resource status somewhat independently of resource assimilation, as well as the importance of considering stored resources in understanding plant responses to the environment.     

Gas exchange in Paulownia species growing under different soil moisture conditions in the field

In order to evaluate their responses to drought, we determined the photosynthetic activity water potential, stomatal conductance, transpiration, water use efficiency photosynthetic photon flux density and leaf temperature of Paulownia imperialis, P. fortunei and P. elongata in three different soil moisture conditions in the field. Our results showed that P. imperialis had greater photosynthesis (8.86 micromol CO2 m(-2) s(-1)) and instantaneous water use efficiency (0.79 micromol CO2 mmol H2O(-1)) than either P. elongata (8.20 micromol CO2 m(-2) s(-1) and 0.71 micromol CO2 mmol H2O(-1)) or P. fortunei (3.26 micromol CO2 m(-2) s(-1) and 0.07 micromol CO2 mmol H2O(-1)). The rapid growth of Paulownia did not appear to be correlated with photosynthetic rates. Paulownia fortunei showed more transpiration (48.78 mmol H2O m(-2) s(-1)) and stomatal conductance (840 mmol m(-2) s(-1)) than P. imperialis (20 mmol H2O m(-2) s(-1) and 540 mmol m(-2) s(-1)) and P. elongata (20 mmol H2O m(-2) s(-1) and 410 mmol m(-2) s(-1)), which allowed these two Paulownia species to increase their tolerance to low soil moisture, and maintain higher water use efficiency under these conditions. According to our physiological gas exchange field tests, Paulownia imperialis does appear to be capable of successful growth in semiarid zones.     

Counterintuitive effects of large-scale predator removal on a midlatitude rodent community

Historically, small mammals have been focal organisms for studying predator-prey dynamics, principally because of interest in explaining the drivers of the cyclical dynamics exhibited by northern vole, lemming, and hare populations. However, many small-mammal species occur at relatively low and fairly stable densities at temperate latitudes, and our understanding of how complex predator assemblages influence the abundance and dynamics of these species is surprisingly limited. In an intact grassland ecosystem in western Montana, USA, we examined the abundance and dynamics of Columbian ground squirrels (Spermophilus columbianus), deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), and montane voles (Microtus montanus) on 1-ha plots where we excluded mammalian and avian predators and ungulates, excluded ungulates alone, or allowed predators and ungulates full access. Our goal was to determine whether the relatively low population abundance and moderate population fluctuations of these rodents were due to population suppression by predators. Our predator-exclusion treatment was divided into two phases: a phase where we excluded all predators except weasels (Mustela spp.; 2002-2005), and a phase where all predators including weasels were excluded (2006-2009). Across the entire duration of the experiment, predator and/or ungulate exclusion had no effect on the abundance or overall dynamics of ground squirrels and deer mice. Ground squirrel survival (the only species abundant enough to accurately estimate survival) was also unaffected by our experimental treatments. Prior to weasel exclusion, predators also had no impacts on montane vole abundance or dynamics. However, after weasel exclusion, vole populations reached greater population peaks, and there was greater recruitment of young animals on predator-exclusion plots compared to plots open to predators during peak years. These results suggest that the impacts of predators cannot be generalized across all rodents in an assemblage. Furthermore, they suggest that specialist predators can play an important role in suppressing vole abundance even in lower-latitude vole populations that occur at relatively low densities.     

Heavy metals in fish species from lotic freshwater ecosystem at Afikpo, Nigeria

A study was conducted between March 2006 and February 2007 to assess the concentration of Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb, and Cr in the gills and muscles of six fish species (Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus, Clarias anguillaris, Tillapia zillii, Mormyrus rume rume, Mormyrus macrophthalmus and Mormyrus tapirus) from lotic freshwater ecosystem at Afikpo South- East Nigeria using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. In all the fish species studied the concentration of metals in the gills was significantly higher than that of the muscles (p<0.05). While the highest concentration (mg l(-1)) of Fe (702.20 +/- 0.04), Zn (34.40 +/- 0.02), Cu (2.10 +/- 0.01), Mn (4.91 +/- 0.08) Pb (0.50 +/- 0.02) and Cr (1.12 +/- 0.07) were recorded in the gills of C. nigrodigitatus, that in the muscles were recorded in T. zillii (443.20 +/- 0.08, 23.30 +/- 0.06, 1.33 +/- 0.06, 3.09 +/- 0.02, 0.31 +/- 0.01 and 0.66 +/- 0.04 for Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb and Cr respectively). The lowest concentration of all the heavy metals in the gills was recorded in M. tapirus (309.00 +/- 0.07, 16.45 +/- 0.03, 0.92 +/- 0.04, 2.15 +/- 0.04, 0.21 +/- 0.01 and 0.50 +/- 0.06 mg l(-1)for Fe, Zn, Cu Mn, Pb and Cr respectively) while the lowest in the muscles was recorded in C. anguillaris [Fe (186.00 +/- 0.07), Zn (14.20 +/- 0.08), Cu (0.56 +/- 0.03), Mn (1.30 +/- 0.02), Pb (0.10 +/- 0.01) and Cr (0.28 +/- 0.04)]. The order of heavy metals concentrations in both the gills and muscles was Fe>Zn>Mn>Cu>Cr>Pb. While the concentration of Zn, Cu and Pb both in the muscles and gills of all the six fish species studied were within the WHO and FEPA prescribed limits, that of Fe(except in the muscles), Mn and Cr were above the prescribed limits thus indicating contamination of the fish species by these metals. Fe has the highest bio-concentration factor (BCF) in both tissues while the least was Cu. Periodic monitoring of these metals in both fishes and river to ensure safety is advocated.     

Bioreduction of nitrate in groundwater using a pilot-scale hydrogen-based membrane biofilm reactor

A long-term pilot-scale H₂-based membrane biofilm reactor (MBfR) was tested for removal of nitrate from actual groundwater. A key feature of this second-generation pilot MBfR is that it employed lower cost polyester hollow fibers and still achieved high loading rate. The steady-state maximum nitrate surface loading at which the effluent nitrate and nitrite concentrations were below the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) was at least 5.9 g·N·(m²·d)^?1, which corresponds to a maximum volumetric loading of at least 7.7 kg·N·(m³·d) ^?1. The steady-state maximum nitrate surface area loading was higher than the highest nitrate surface loading reported in the first-generation MBfRs using composite fibers (2.6 g·N·(m²·d)^?1). This work also evaluated the H₂-utilization efficiency in MBfR. The measured H₂ supply rate was only slightly higher than the stoichiometric H₂-utilization rate. Thus, H₂ utilization was controlled by diffusion and was close to 100% efficiency, as long as biofilm accumulated on the polyester-fiber surface and the fibers had no leaks.     

Monitoring of Bt-Maize pollen exposure in the vicinity of the nature reserve Ruhlsdorfer Bruch in northeast Germany 2007 to 2008

Background, aim, and scope Basically, technological innovations are associated with benefits and risks. This is also true for the introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMO) into agriculture. In Germany, precautionary regulations currently demand isolation distances (i.?e. buffer zones) for the cultivation of genetically modified maize (Bt-maize) in the vicinity of conventional (150?m) and organic maize fields (300?m). The Bt-toxin may harm non-target organisms (NTO) such as Lepidoptera. Despite this, corresponding regulations for the protection of nature reserves are lacking to date. Conventional and Bt-maize have been grown in the vicinity of the Flora-Fauna-Habitat (FFH) Ruhlsdorfer Bruch in Brandenburg, Germany. The aim of this study was to investigate whether exposure of maize pollen from surrounding Bt-maize fields to NTOs in the nature protection area could be excluded or not. Two types of exposure were investigated: Firstly, whether maize pollen was dispersed by wind into the nature reserve area exposing resident NTOs. Secondly, foraging NTOs from the nature reserve are exposed by roaming the surrounding fields and collecting maize pollen. In order to fulfil the precautionary principle defined by law, the study should help to determine appropriate isolation distances for the cultivation of Bt-maize with regard to sustainable protection of NTOs in the FFH Ruhlsdorfer Bruch. In 2007, the local authorities issued an isolation distance between Bt-maize fields and nature reserves of 100?m and in 2008, this became 250?m in the northern and 500?m in the westerly direction, respectively. Materials and methods Standardised methods for biological and technical pollen sampling issued by the Association of German Engineers (VDI 4330 Part 3, 2007 and VDI 4330 Part 4, 2006) were applied providing a quality controlled and methodologically harmonised database which does not only serve the needs to be fulfilled by the present case-specific monitoring study but can also be used as a reference database for further investigations. Maize pollen exposure was measured within the FFH Ruhlsdorfer Bruch and its immediate vicinity in July and August 2007 and 2008. In 2007, the sampling was performed at three sites using 12 technical samplers (Sigma-2/PMF) placed at five measuring points at distances from 5?m to 120?m from the maize field edges. Additionally, for biological pollen sampling six bee colonies were situated at these three sites (two colonies at each site). The technical sampler Sigma-2/PMF enables point sampling which is primarily influenced by wind and topography providing information on effective maize pollen input (flow and deposition) at the measuring sites. Honey-bees roaming in the surrounding area with typical foraging distances of several kilometres may act as planar collectors. They may serve as indicators for the exposure to pollen-collecting NTOs. Furthermore, biological sampling is more selective due to the organism’s preferences, whereas the technical sampling is neutral. Hence, both the technical and the biological sampling complement each other in their scope of application. The pollen samples of both matrices were analysed microscopically and the maize pollen loads were quantified. Pollen-DNA was analysed by means of the quantitative PCR-method (qPCR) identifying conventional and Bt-maize pollen by two independent laboratories. In 2008, the monitoring was repeated with additional sites. Eighteen technical samplers were exposed at five sites with eight measuring points at distances from 5?m to 250?m from the maize field edges. Two honey-bee colonies for biological sampling were placed at one site for control purposes. PCR-analyses were performed to measure the amounts of Bt-maize pollen in the samples. Results The results of pollen monitoring at the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch revealed maize pollen exposure for all monitoring sites in both surveys. In 2007, up to 1.75 million maize pollen/m² were deposited at sites closest to the maize field. At 120?m from field edge in the middle of the FFH-reserve, 99,000 maize pollen/m² were detected. In 2008, similar results were found, at distances up to 250?m from the field edges deposition of 164,000 maize pollen/m² was detected. Data on maize pollen deposition show a clear distance relationship and are in accordance with results of further comprehensive surveys based on the same methodology (Hofmann 2007). The results of the microscopic analysis of the pollen pellets demonstrated that bees collected maize pollen at all sites, in 2007 and 2008. Although maize pollen is not the main food source (2007:0.1–0.3?%; 2008:2–3?%) the collection efficiency of the bee colonies resulted in high amounts of sampled maize pollen with 4 to 11 million per site in 2007 and up to 467 million in 2008. Molecular-biological analysis of maize pollen DNA by qPCR demonstrated that transgenic Bt-MON810 DNA was present in all technical and biological samples, corroborated by two independent laboratories. In 2007, the GMO-content in the samples ranged up to 44?% in the bioaerosols and 49?% in the pollen pellets. In 2008, GMO-proportions of up to 18?% were detected. Discussion The results of this study provide evidence that NTOs in the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch were exposed to Bt-maize pollen under the cultivation conditions in 2007 with a buffer zone of 100?m. The GMO-content reached up to 48?%. The results of the monitoring in 2008 confirmed these findings. Even though the exposure could be reduced by increasing the isolation distances to 250?m and 500?m respectively, the results still show percentages of up to 18?% Bt-MON810 in the pollen samples. The results on maize pollen deposition at the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch in 2007 and 2008 correspond to the results of an investigation which was conducted over several years applying the same standardised method, but covering a wider range of distances. The correlation between maize pollen deposition (n/m²) and distance to the source field (m) fitted best to a power function of the type y = 1.2086 · 10⁶ · x ^–0.548. Despite the same trend, the pollen deposition in the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch revealed above-average findings. Also the analysis of the pollen pellets collected by the bees showed an exposure in 2007 with values for the GMO-content of up to 49?%. For both methods, the exposure decreased in 2008 due to the greater buffer zones up to 500?m. Whereas the GMO-content for the biological sampling were reduced to values below 10?%, the values for the technical sampling were still higher indicating that greater buffer zones would be necessary for safety reasons under the precautionary principle. Conclusions The results of this investigation proved that maize pollen were dispersed by wind to distances farther than 250?m from field edge leading to maize pollen exposure in the centre of the nature reserve. The results also demonstrated that foraging NTOs living in the nature reserve were exposed to maize pollen from surrounding fields. Considering the cultivation of Bt-maize MON810, the assumption of the Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) that there will be no relevant exposure beyond the Bt-maize fields, cannot be confirmed. Considering the results of this and related studies and with respect to the precautionary principle, one can state that buffer zones between Bt-maize fields and protected areas are an effective measure to minimise the exposure of Bt-maize pollen to NTOs and, thus, to prevent from adverse effects. Recommendations and perspectives Because of still insufficient ecotoxicological data for the risk assessment of Bt-maize MON810 considering butterflies and other protected NTOs, protection standards assuring the precautionary principle have to be implemented to avoid Bt-maize pollen exposure to NTOs. This applies for the case Ruhlsdorfer Bruch and for nature reserve areas in general. In order to exclude risks to protected NTOs occurring in nature reserves, sufficient buffer zones for Bt-maize cultivation should be considered. The statistical analysis revealed that distances of more than 500?m are necessary to decisively reduce exposure to foraging insects. In fact, distances of more than 1,000?m are necessary to prevent maize pollen deposition from values above 100,000 pollen/m² with a certainty of 90?%. An adequate risk assessment can only be attained if based on field measurements accounting for the high variation of pollen deposition due to local environmental site conditions and field management. The monitoring should be based on standardised methods. It should include locations with the highest expected deposition rates, the boundaries of the protected areas and sites of interest within those boundaries, e.?g., specific habitats of sensitive species.