20世纪重大自然灾害评析

人类在科学技术上取得了辉煌成绩的同时,在认识自然和改造自然方面也得到了才识和新的认识,这一教训主要是来自自然灾害。根据收集到的全球自然灾害有关数据,对２０世纪全球主要自然灾害特征分布特点进行了分析,并对其成因提出了看法。     

A new neosuchian with Asian affinities from the Jurassic of northeastern Brazil

Phylogenetic relationships near the origin of extant crocodylians are weakly supported, and this lack of resolution makes for poor estimates of taxonomic and morphological diversity. Previously known taxa are found throughout the Cretaceous in Laurasia and at a few sites from Brazil, Australia, and northern Africa. Here, we report Batrachomimus pastosbonensis gen. et sp. nov. from the Late Jurassic of northeastern Brazil, which is deeply nested within Neosuchia and associated to the Cretaceous Asian paralligatorids. The new taxon predates all other members of Paralligatoridae and its immediate sister group (including Eusuchia) by 30 million years. A nearly complete skull, osteoderms, and limb bones were recovered, and autapomorphies of B. pastosbonensis include a scalloped lateral margin of the rostrum in dorsal view, unsculpted alveolar margin at the caudalmost portion of the maxilla, blunt lateral prongs on the jugal at the base of the postorbital bar, hourglass shaped choanae, and pterygoid choanal septum extended between the palatal shelves of the palatines. The crocodyloid-like skull proportions and the slender, conical teeth suggest an amphibious and piscivorous life history to this 1 m long animal.

     

Climate change impact on the olive pollen season in Mediterranean areas of Italy: air quality in late spring from an allergenic point of view

Recent studies have shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens, and thus on allergic diseases in humans. In the Mediterranean region, despite the importance of the olive tree for production, there is high allergenicity of olive pollen and related risks to human health. Aerobiological sampling techniques can be used to analyse the pollinosis phenomenon through determination of mean daily pollen concentrations per cubic metre of air. The present study was carried out from 1999 to 2008 in 16 olive-growing areas in Italy, to update the information on the pollinosis characteristics of Olea europaea in the study areas. The analysis of the average flowering season over the study period highlights a temporal scaling of pollen in the atmosphere that depends on the different climatic characteristics. This is mainly dependent on temperature, and in part, determined by latitude. Generally, the levels of O. europaea pollen in the atmosphere are higher from mid-April to the end of June, with the period of greatest risk to human health due to this olive pollen in this area currently limited primarily to the last 10 days of May. However, the pollen season can move, depending on the climate scenario considered, and data here can be used to determine potential time shifts in pollinosis that might cause more precocious asthma and allergy problems. The allergy season for this type of pollen might be significantly precocious in future decades (20–30 days earlier in the year), which will impact on the severity and duration of allergies attributable to olive tree pollen.     

Ammonia as confounding factor in toxicity tests with the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lmk)

The aim of this study was to investigate the toxicity of total ammonia towards sea urchin bioassays, in order to elucidate the role of ammonia as confounding factor in sediment quality assessment studies. New toxicity data, expressed as EC50, NOEC and LOEC are reported for Paracentrotus lividus based on experiments at differing pH values. Results confirmed that sperm cell toxicity test is not very sensitive to ammonia, while total ammonia embryotoxicity is strictly pH dependent. Accurate observations of embryotoxic effects at increasing total ammonia concentrations evidenced progressive shifts from malformed plutei to gastrula and blastula blockages. Toxicity data obtained for P. lividus are comparable with previous results with other echinoid species.     

Transcending scale dependence in identifying habitat with resource selection functions

Multi-scale resource selection modeling is used to identify factors that limit species distributions across scales of space and time. This multi-scale nature of habitat suitability complicates the translation of inferences to single, spatial depictions of habitat required for conservation of species. We estimated resource selection functions (RSFs) across three scales for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), with two objectives: (1) to infer the relative effects of two forms of anthropogenic disturbance (forestry and linear features) on woodland caribou distributions at multiple scales and (2) to estimate scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) that synthesize results across scales for management-oriented habitat suitability mapping. We found a previously undocumented scale-specific switch in woodland caribou response to two forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Caribou avoided forestry cut-blocks at broad scales according to first- and second-order RSFs and avoided linear features at fine scales according to third-order RSFs, corroborating predictions developed according to predator-mediated effects of each disturbance type. Additionally, a single SRSF validated as well as each of three single-scale RSFs when estimating habitat suitability across three different spatial scales of prediction. We demonstrate that a single SRSF can be applied to predict relative habitat suitability at both local and landscape scales in support of critical habitat identification and species recovery.     

Phototransformation of <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">l</Emphasis>-tryptophan and formation of humic substances in water

Humic substances are poorly known, though they represent a major pool of non-biotic organic carbon on earth. In particular, there is little knowledge on the formation of humic substances by irradiation of organic matter dissolved in waters. Specifically, it is known that humic substances can be formed from proteins by photochemical processes in surface waters, but the role of single amino acids and their transformation pathways are not yet known. Therefore, here we studied the phototransformation of aqueous l-tryptophan under simulated sunlight. Irradiated l-tryptophan solutions were analyzed by absorption, fluorescence, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies, chromatography, potentiometry and mass spectrometry (MS). The solutions appeared turbid after irradiation; therefore, nephelometry and dynamic laser light scattering were used to characterize the suspended particles. Results show that about 95% of l-tryptophan was degraded in 8-h irradiation, undergoing deamination and decarboxylation of the amino acidic moieties to release ammonium and formate. The MS signal at m/z 146 suggests the formation of 3-ethylindole, while pH-metric and NMR data revealed the presence of hydroxylated compounds. The phototransformation intermediates of l-tryptophan had fluorescence and absorption spectra similar to those of humic substances, they were able to produce ^·OH upon irradiation and tended to aggregate by both ionic and hydrophobic interactions. Overall, our findings reveal for the first time the nature of products formed upon phototransformation of l-tryptophan. Interestingly, the transformation of l-tryptophan is quite different from that of the previously studied l-tyrosine, although both compounds produce humic-like materials under irradiation.     

Nitrogen Budget in a Lowland Coastal Area Within the Po River Basin (Northern Italy): Multiple Evidences of Equilibrium Between Sources and Internal Sinks

Detailed studies on pollutants genesis, path and transformation are needed in agricultural catchments facing coastal areas. Here, loss of nutrients should be minimized in order to protect valuable aquatic ecosystems from eutrophication phenomena. A soil system N budget was calculated for a lowland coastal area, the Po di Volano basin (Po River Delta, Northern Italy), characterized by extremely flat topography and fine soil texture and bordering a network of lagoon ecosystems. Main features of this area are the scarce relevance of livestock farming, the intense agriculture, mainly sustained by chemical fertilizers, and the developed network of artificial canals with long water residence time. Average nitrogen input exceeds output terms by ~60 kg N ha^?1 year^?1, a relatively small amount if compared to sub-basins of the same hydrological system. Analysis of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in groundwater suggests limited vertical loss and no accumulation of this element, while a nitrogen mass balance in surface waters indicates a net and significant removal within the watershed. Our data provide multiple evidences of efficient control of the nitrogen excess in this geographical area and we speculate that denitrification in soil and in the secondary drainage system performs this ecosystemic function. Additionally, the significant difference between nitrogen input and nitrogen output loads associated to the irrigation system, which is fed by the N-rich Po River, suggests that this basin metabolizes part of the nitrogen excess produced upstream. The traditionally absent livestock farming practices and consequent low use of manure as fertilizer pose the risk of excess soil mineralization and progressive loss of denitrification capacity in this area.     

The Fate of Priority Areas for Conservation in Protected Areas: A Fine-Scale Markov Chain Approach

Park managers in alpine areas must deal with the increase in forest coverage that has been observed in most European mountain areas, where traditional farming and agricultural practices have been abandoned. The aim of this study is to develop a fine-scale model of a broad area to support the managers of Paneveggio Nature Park (Italy) in conservation planning by focusing on the fate of priority areas for conservation in the next 50–100 years. GIS analyses were performed to assess the afforestation dynamic over time using two historical maps (from 1859 and 1936) and a series of aerial photographs and ortho-photos (taken from 1954 to 2006) covering a time span of 150 years. The results show an increase in the forest surface area of about 35%. Additionally, the forest became progressively more compact and less fragmented, with a consequent loss of ecotones and open habitats that are important for biodiversity. Markov chain-cellular automata models were used to project future changes, evaluating the effects on a habitat scale. Simulations show that some habitats defined as priority by the EU Habitat Directive will be compromised by the forest expansion by 2050 and suffer a consistent loss by 2100. This protocol, applied to other areas, can be used for designing long-term management measures with a focus on habitats where conservation status is at risk.     

Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.