Container contamination as a possible source of a diarrhoea outbreak in Abou Shouk camp, Darfur province, Sudan

Diarrhoea is one of the five major causes of death in an emergency setting and one of the three main causes of death in children (Curtis and Cairncross, 2003). In June 2004, an outbreak of shigellosis was confirmed in Abou Shouk camp in the Northern Darfur province of Sudan. As water testing showed no contamination, it was assumed that post-collection contamination was happening. The decision was taken to launch a programme of mass disinfection of all water containers in order to break the contamination cycle. Diarrhoea figures from the clinics showed a fall in cases following the cleaning campaign. It is extremely difficult to obtain good and statistically rigorous data in an emergency setting, the priority being to intervene rapidly to prevent further cases of diarrhoea. However, the results do appear to indicate that the disinfection programme has had an impact on the prevalence of bloody and watery diarrhoea.     

Cycles in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the frequency domain

A model is derived that relates price cycles to investment behavior in the mineral industries and predicts that these cycles will be roughly twice as long as the investment period (the period between the investment decision and the project completion). Spectral techniques are used to estimate the principal cycles in metal and fuel prices. For the metals, the estimated cycle lengths reinforce the model predictions. However, no significant cycles are found in the prices of the fuels. The lead-lag relationships between prices of different commodities are also investigated and are found to be significant for those that are jointly produced.     

Self-appraisal and perceptions of the appraisal discussion: A field experiment

Performance evaluation based on self-appraisal has been widely advocated because of its potential for increasing the effectiveness of the performance appraisal discussion. A field experiment was conducted to assess the effects of a formal ’both-rate‘ self appraisal (where both manager and subordinate independently complete appraisals before the discussion) on perceptions of ratee and rater behaviors and outcomes. One hundred fifty-one ratees and 81 raters randomly assigned to self-appraisal and control groups participated in the study. Results indicated that the self-appraisal treatment had no main effects on ratee perceptions of their contributions to the discussion or satisfaction with the appraisal. Self-appraising ratees perceived less influence over the appraisal discussion, and less agreement with their manager's rating than did non-self appraisers. However, informal self-appraisal behavior was significantly and positively correlated with most dependent variables. Results suggest major differences between formal and informal self-appraisal which warrant future research.     

Coastal zone development: Mitigation,marsh creation,and decision-making

Marsh creation is currently receiving wide attention in the United States as an important tool for mitigating the impacts of development in coastal wetlands. The perception that there is no net loss in valuable coastal wetlands when development is mitigated by the creation of man-made marshes can have a substantial impact on the permitting and decision-making processes. The effective result may be the trading of natural salt marshes for man-made marshes.Techniques for marsh creation were developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to enhance and stabilize dredge spoil materials. Most research sponsored by the Corps has been directed at determining whether these goals have been accomplished. A survey of the research indicates that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that man-made marshes function like natural salt marshes or provide the important values of natural marshes. It is necessary, therefore, for decision-makers to understand the limitations of present knowledge about man-made marshes, realistically evaluate the trade-offs involved, and relegate mitigation to its proper role in the permitting process—post facto conditions imposed on developments that clearly meet state qualifications and policies.     

Environmental resource management on the Munduruku savanna

For 13 years, the Munduruku were observed living in the savanna region located in South America in the Brazilian state of Pará. The area is near the point where the states of Pará, Amazonas, and Mato Grosso join their borders, and is utilized by about 200–300 Munduruku Amerindians. Their subsistence staple is manioc (a cassava), with fruits and meat included in the diet. Gold mining by Brazilians is a disruptive element in the resource management of the savanna habitat on the rim of the Amazon Basin. Direct and indirect results of mining interference are described. A study of the manner in which the Munduruku on the Cururu River (a tributary of the Tapajós) have handled the potentially disruptive rubber tapping suggests possible ways of reversing the interference. Several courses of action are discussed.     

Hierarchical modeling of seed variety yields and decision making for future planting plans

Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the twenty first century. This paper addresses the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision making framework. Specifically, a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop) is introduced. This prediction mechanism is then integrated with a weather forecasting model and three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk. The model was applied to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. The prediction model achieved a median absolute error of 235 kg/ha and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models. The decision models identified the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer’s risk aversion level. More generally, the models can support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.     

Founder need to belong,tertius iungens orientation and new venture performance

In this study, we examine the role of founders' need to belong and tertius iungens orientation (i.e., the tendency of bringing people together and coordinating among others) in the context of new ventures. We propose and document evidence that a founder's tendency to engage in tertius iungens oriented networking is positively associated with new venture performance. We also reveal that a founder's need to belong is a significant motivational antecedent of the founder's tertius iungens orientation. Further, the need to belong–networking orientation linkage is stronger for founders in new ventures at the early product development stage than those at the late product development stage. We tested our hypotheses using survey data collected with a two‐wave sample of new ventures in China. We discuss the theoretical significance of studying the need to belong and tertius iungens orientation for social networks and entrepreneurship literatures, as well as the practical implications for managing a successful new venture.