Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins1

Laforce, Serge, Marie‐Claude Simard, Robert Leconte, and François Brissette, 2011. Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):785‐799. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00560.x Abstract: A methodology is presented for mapping the flooded extent of rivers under projected climate change. The methodology follows a top‐down modeling approach, where future climate projections generated by global climate models (GCMs) are downscaled to the watershed scale and used as input to hydrological and hydrodynamic models for predicting future river flows and associated open water levels. A range of possible future climate responses are taken into account, allowing quantification of flood‐mapping uncertainties resulting from GCM structure and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES). Probabilistic projections of future flood zones are developed by assuming that all GCMs and GHGES be equally weighted. The proposed methodology was applied to two river basins located in southern Quebec, Canada, for the time horizons 2020 and 2080. Twenty‐ and hundred‐year floods were computed and corresponding flood maps have been produced. Results indicate that there is a general trend toward an increased spring peak discharge for the Châteauguay River Basin and a decrease for the du Nord River Basin at the 2020 horizon. A less obvious trend was observed for the 2080 horizon, some GCM‐GHGES producing an increase in spring peak flows, whereas others would result in a less severe spring flood. These uncertainties in flood flows have cascaded into uncertainties in the corresponding flooded extent and represented as probabilistic flood maps.     

Influence of corallivory, competition, and habitat structure on coral community shifts

The species composition of coral communities has shifted in many areas worldwide through the relative loss of important ecosystem engineers such as highly branched corals, which are integral in maintaining reef biodiversity. We assessed the degree to which the performance of recently recruited branching corals was influenced by corallivory, competition, sedimentation, and the interactions between these factors. We also explored whether the species-specific influence of these biotic and abiotic constraints helps to explain recent shifts in the coral community in lagoons of Moorea, French Polynesia. Population surveys revealed evidence of a community shift away from a historically acroporid-dominated community to a pocilloporid- and poritid-dominated community, but also showed that the distribution and abundance of coral taxa varied predictably with location in the lagoon. At the microhabitat scale, branching corals grew mainly on dead or partially dead massive Porites ("bommies"), promontories with enhanced current velocities and reduced sedimentation. A demographic study revealed that growth and survival of juvenile Pocillopora verrucosa and Acropora retusa, the two most common branching species of each taxon, were affected by predation and competition with vermetid gastropods. By 24 months of age, 20-60% of juvenile corals suffered partial predation by corallivorous fishes, and injured corals experienced reduced growth and survival. A field experiment confirmed that partial predation by corallivorous fishes is an important, but habitat-modulated, constraint for branching corals. Competition with vermetid gastropods reduced growth of both branching species but unexpectedly also provided an associational defense against corallivory. Overall, the impact of abiotic constraints was habitat-specific and similar for Acropora and Pocillopora, but biotic interactions, especially corallivory, had a greater negative effect on Acropora than Pocillopora, which may explain the local shift in coral community composition.     

Large variation in breast milk levels of organohalogenated compounds is dependent on mother's age, changes in body composition and exposures early in life

We identified factors that are important determinants of body burdens (breast milk levels) of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs)) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). PCBs, PCDD/Fs and PBDEs were analysed in breast milk from up to 325 first-time mothers in Uppsala, Sweden, who delivered between 1996 and 2006. Hierarchical clustering was used as a method for identification of groups of compounds with common sources of exposure and similar toxicokinetics. Based on correlations between levels of single compounds/congeners in breast milk, distinctly separated clusters were formed, strongly dependent on structural similarities of the organohalogen molecules. In a multiple regression model, levels of PCBs (except PCB 28), PCDD/Fs and BDE-153 were positively associated with age of the mother and weight loss after delivery and inversely associated with pre-pregnancy BMI (body mass index) and weight gain during pregnancy. Higher levels of mono-ortho PCB TEQ, non-ortho PCB TEQ and BDE-153 in milk were found among women with high physical activity. Women who were breastfed during infancy and grew up on the Baltic coast of Sweden, with high availability of contaminated fish from the Baltic sea, had higher levels of PCBs and PCDD/Fs in breast milk indicating that exposure early in life from breast milk and contaminated fish may still affect body burdens at the time of pregnancy. The importance of current consumption of fatty Baltic fish as a source of exposure was supported by the positive association with breast milk levels of mono-ortho PCB TEQ, PCDF TEQ and BDE-153. The results show that, in contrast to the lower brominated PBDE congeners, the hexa-brominated BDE-153 resembles the chlorinated compounds with regards to determinants in breast milk. This suggests that some of the PBDEs may have toxicokinetic properties and that are similar to the PCBs and PCDD/Fs. Our results show that a few simple advices to women regarding weight changes in connection with pregnancy and consumption of contaminated fatty fish during the whole lifetime may lower the levels of dioxins in breast milk by up to 60%.     

Validation of the inhalable dust algorithm of the Advanced REACH Tool using a dataset from the pharmaceutical industry

As it is often difficult to obtain sufficient numbers of measurements to adequately characterise exposure levels, occupational exposure models may be useful tools in the exposure assessment process. This study aims to refine and validate the inhalable dust algorithm of the Advanced REACH Tool (ART) to predict airborne exposure of workers in the pharmaceutical industry. The ART was refined to reflect pharmaceutical situations. Largely task based workplace exposure data (n = 192) were collated from a multinational pharmaceutical company with exposure levels ranging from 5 × 10(-5) to 12 mg m(-3). Bias, relative bias and uncertainty around geometric mean exposure estimates were calculated for 16 exposure scenarios. For 12 of the 16 scenarios the ART geometric mean exposure estimates were lower than measured exposure levels with on average, a one-third underestimation of exposure (relative bias -32%). For 75% of the scenarios the exposure estimates were, within the 90% uncertainty factor of 4.4, as reported for the original calibration study, which may indicate more uncertainty in the ART estimates in this industry. While the uncertainty was higher than expected this is likely due to the limited number of measurements per scenario, which were largely derived from single premises.     

Grazing management effects on sediment, phosphorus, and pathogen loading of streams in cool-season grass pastures

Erosion and runoff from pastures may lead to degradation of surface water. A 2-yr grazing study was conducted to quantify the effects of grazing management on sediment, phosphorus (P), and pathogen loading of streams in cool-season grass pastures. Six adjoining 12.1-ha pastures bisected by a stream in central Iowa were divided into three treatments: continuous stocking with unrestricted stream access (CSU), continuous stocking with restricted stream access (CSR), and rotational stocking (RS). Rainfall simulations on stream banks resulted in greater ( < 0.10) proportions of applied precipitation and amounts of sediment and P transported in runoff from bare sites than from vegetated sites across grazing treatments. Similar differences were observed comparing vegetated sites in CSU and RS pastures with vegetated sites in CSR pastures. Bovine enterovirus was shed by an average of 24.3% of cows during the study period and was collected in the runoff of 8.3 and 16.7% of runoff simulations on bare sites in CSU pastures in June and October of 2008, respectively, and from 8.3% of runoff simulations on vegetated sites in CSU pastures in April 2009. Fecal pathogens (bovine coronavirus [BCV], bovine rotavirus group A, and O157:H7) shed or detected in runoff were almost nonexistent; only BCV was detected in feces of one cow in August of 2008. Erosion of cut-banks was the greatest contributor of sediment and P loading to the stream; contributions from surface runoff and grazing animals were considerably less and were minimized by grazing management practices that reduced congregation of cattle by pasture streams.     

Size distribution, directional source contributions and pollution status of PM from Chengdu, China during a long-term sampling campaign

Long-term and synchronous monitoring of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 was conducted in Chengdu in China from 2007 to 2013. The levels, variations, compositions and size distributions were investigated. The sources were quantified by two-way and three-way receptor models (PMF2, ME2-2way and ME2-3way). Consistent results were found: the primary source categories contributed 63.4% (PMF2), 64.8% (ME2-2way) and 66.8% (ME2-3way) to PM₁₀, and contributed 60.9% (PMF2), 65.5% (ME2-2way) and 61.0% (ME2-3way) to PM_2.5. Secondary sources contributed 31.8% (PMF2), 32.9% (ME2-2way) and 31.7% (ME2-3way) to PM₁₀, and 35.0% (PMF2), 33.8% (ME2-2way) and 36.0% (ME2-3way) to PM_2.5. The size distribution of source categories was estimated better by the ME2-3way method. The three-way model can simultaneously consider chemical species, temporal variability and PM sizes, while a two-way model independently computes datasets of different sizes. A method called source directional apportionment (SDA) was employed to quantify the contributions from various directions for each source category. Crustal dust from east-north-east (ENE) contributed the highest to both PM₁₀ (12.7%) and PM_2.5 (9.7%) in Chengdu, followed by the crustal dust from south-east (SE) for PM₁₀ (9.8%) and secondary nitrate & secondary organic carbon from ENE for PM_2.5 (9.6%). Source contributions from different directions are associated with meteorological conditions, source locations and emission patterns during the sampling period. These findings and methods provide useful tools to better understand PM pollution status and to develop effective pollution control strategies.     

Climate risk insurance in Pacific Small Island Developing States: possibilities,challenges and vulnerabilities—a comprehensive review

Climate change has become one of the most compelling fields of empirical research over the last couple of decades, partly due to its socio-economic impacts. Using a meta-analysis of 235 peer-reviewed articles published between January 2010 and July 2020, this paper appraises climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal and draws lessons for future adaptation planning. The number of research is observed to have increased significantly in recent years (2015–2020) although there is no consistent pattern over the review period and at the thematic level. Findings submit that the agriculture and food security has the highest number of publications (37%) followed by gender equality and social inclusion (18%) and forest, biodiversity and watershed management (16%). There are no studies found in rural and urban settlement theme. Geographic distribution of CCA studies revealed that over 40% studies were carried out from central Nepal, while no study was conducted in ten districts of eastern and western Nepal. The study focus was also discrete, and the perception and attitude and impact assessment of climate change were common agendas; however, the drivers of change and options for adaptation were understudied. CCA with multipronged initiatives provide a broader understanding of dynamics and governance of climate change that not only affects rural livelihoods, but also influences regional and global environments and biodiversity.