A method for quantifying bias in modeled concentrations and source impacts for secondary particulate matter

A method for quantifying source impacts for secondary PM_2.5 species is derived. The method provides estimates of bias in modeled concentrations. Adjusted concentrations match corresponding observations at monitored locations. Sources impacts on secondary species are estimated over the US for 20 sources. Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) estimates of sulfates, nitrates, ammonium, and organic carbon are highly influenced by uncertainties in modeled secondary formation processes, such as chemical mechanisms, volatilization, and condensation rates. These compounds constitute the majority of PM_2.5 mass, and reducing bias in estimated concentrations has benefits for policy measures and epidemiological studies. In this work, a method for adjusting source impacts on secondary species is developed that provides estimates of source contributions and reduces bias in modeled concentrations compared to observations. The bias correction adjusts concentrations and source impacts based on the difference between modeled concentrations and observations while taking into account uncertainties at the location of interest; and it is applied both spatially and temporally. We apply the method over the US for 2006. The mean bias for initial CMAQ concentrations compared to observations is −0.28 (OC), 0.11 (NO₃), 0.05 (NH₄), and −0.08 (SO₄). The normalized mean bias in modeled concentrations compared to observations was effectively zero for OC, NO₃, NH₄, and SO₄ after applying the secondary bias correction. 10-fold cross-validation was conducted to determine the performance of the spatial application of the bias correction. Cross-validation performance was favorable; correlation coefficients were greater than 0.69 for all species when comparing observations and concentrations based on kriged correction factors. The methods presented here address model uncertainties by improving simulated concentrations and source impacts of secondary particulate matter through data assimilation. Secondary-adjusted concentrations and source impacts from 20 emissions sources are generated for 2006 over continental US.     

Decomposition analysis of the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the motor vehicle collision–related mortality rate from 1994 to 2015

Abstract

Objective: Though the mortality rate for motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) has been decreasing since the 1960s with the advent of the first federal seat belt laws in 1968, MVC remains a leading cause of death for individuals aged 1 to 44 years. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of frontal (FABs) and side airbags (SABs) and electronic stability control (ESC) on the components of the MVC mortality rate.

Methods: The MVC mortality rate from 1994 to 2015 was separated into its components of exposure of vehicles, exposure of travel, collision density, injury incidence, and case fatality rate. Year was categorized on the availability of safety technology in vehicles: 1994–1997 (first-generation FABs mandated), 1998–2001 (sled-certified, second-generation FABs mandated), 2002–2006 (increasing prevalence of SABs and ESC), 2007–2011 (advanced airbags mandated), and 2012–2015 (ESC mandated, SAB in over 90% of vehicles, introduction of advanced safety systems). Relative contributions (RCs) of the components to changes in the MVC-related mortality rate were calculated as the absolute value of the component’s beta coefficient divided by the sum of the absolute values of all components’ beta coefficients. Negative binomial regression–estimated rate ratios (RRs) for the changes in the rate of each component by year category compared to the prior year category.

Results: Significant decreases in the MVC mortality rate were observed for 2007–2011 and 2012–2015. The decrease in 2007–2011 was due in most part to an 18% decrease in the injury incidence (RR?=?0.82, P?<?.0001, RC?=?63%), though there was a noted contribution by the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (RR?=?0.95, P?<?.0001, RC?=?15%). The continued decrease in mortality in 2012–2015 was due is most part to the 10% decreased case fatality rate (RR?=?0.90, P?<?.0001, RC?=?66%) because there was no significant change in the vehicle miles traveled and injury incidence.

Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the MVC-related mortality rate and can help direct prevention efforts. Through the study period, there was no meaningful contribution to decreases in the MVC-related mortality rate due to components related to exposure (i.e., vehicles per population and the rate of vehicle miles traveled), suggesting that prevention efforts at decreasing exposure prevalence would have little effect on the MVC-related mortality rate. Instead, prevention efforts should continue to focus on event-phase methods to decrease injury occurrence and mitigate injury severity during the collision.     

Evaluating the effect of rainfall variability on vegetation establishment in a semidesert grassland

Of the operations required for reclamation in arid and semi-arid regions, establishing vegetation entails the most uncertainty due to reliance on unpredictable rainfall for seed germination and seedling establishment. The frequency of successful vegetation establishment was estimated based on a land surface model driven by hourly atmospheric forcing data, 7 years of eddy-flux data, and 31 years of rainfall data at two adjacent sites in southern Arizona, USA. Two scenarios differing in the required imbibition time for successful germination were evaluated—2 or 3 days availability of sufficient surface moisture. Establishment success was assumed to occur if plants could germinate and if the drying front in the soil did not overtake the growth of seminal roots. Based on our results, vegetation establishment could be expected to fail in 32 % of years. In the worst 10-year span, six of ten plantings would have failed. In the best 10-year span, only one of ten was projected to fail. Across all assessments, at most 3 years in a row failed and 6 years in a row were successful. Funding for reclamation seeding must be available to allow reseeding the following year if sufficient amount and timing of rainfall does not occur.     

Composition and concentration of hydrocarbons in sediment samples from the oil producing area of the East Shetland Basin, Scotland

The East Shetland Basin is one of the areas that the Fisheries Research Services (FRS) has concentrated on to assess the possible impacts of oil exploration and production on the marine environment. A stratified random survey of the sediment was carried out in 2002. TOCs were low across the basin and were positively correlated with grain size. The total PAH concentrations (2- to 6-ring parent and alkylated PAHs, including the 16 US EPA PAHs) were less than 150 microg kg(-1) dry weight and their composition indicated a predominantly pyrolytic input to the basin in 2002. Minor unresolved complex mixtures in the n-alkane profiles indicated a slight petrogenic input but further examination of the biomarkers (hopanes and steranes) showed a mixed North Sea and Middle Eastern source. The Middle Eastern source is likely due to inputs from shipping activity, as it is widely used as bunker fuel. Grid surveys were carried out in 1986, 1988-89 and 1994 and areas were selected for which there was data for all the historic grid surveys and the 2002 stratified random survey. Although referring to only a small part of the East Shetland Basin, comparison with these historic surveys shows clearly that the concentrations of Forties crude oil equivalents and total PAH concentrations were highest in 1988-89 and by 2002 had returned to concentrations the same as or less than observed in the original survey in 1986.     

A long-term monitoring study of chlorophyll,microbial contaminants,and pesticides in a coastal residential stormwater pond and its adjacent tidal creek

Stormwater ponds are commonly used in residential and commercial areas to control flooding. The accumulation of urban contaminants in stormwater ponds can lead to water-quality problems including nutrient enrichment, chemical contamination, and bacterial contamination. This study presents 5 years of monitoring data assessing water quality of a residential subdivision pond and adjacent tidal creek in coastal South Carolina, USA. The stormwater pond is eutrophic, as described by elevated concentrations of chlorophyll and phosphorus, and experiences periodic cyanobacterial blooms. A maximum monthly average chlorophyll concentration of 318.75 μg/L was measured in the stormwater pond and 227.63 μg/L in the tidal creek. Fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels were measured in both the pond and the tidal creek that exceeded health and safety standards for safe recreational use. A maximum monthly average FCB level of 1,247 CFU/100 mL was measured in the stormwater pond and 12,850 CFU/100 mL in the tidal creek. In addition, the presence of antibiotic resistant bacteria and pathogenic bacteria were detected. Low concentrations of herbicides (atrazine and 2,4-D), a fungicide (chlorothalonil), and insecticides (pyrethroids and imidacloprid) were measured. Seasonal trends were identified, with the winter months having the lowest concentrations of chlorophyll and FCB. Statistical differences between the stormwater pond and the tidal creek were also noted within seasons. The tidal creek had higher FCB levels than the stormwater pond in the spring and summer, whereas the stormwater pond had higher chlorophyll levels than the tidal creek in the summer and fall seasons. Chlorophyll and FCB levels in the stormwater pond were significantly correlated with monthly average temperature and total rainfall. Pesticide concentrations were also significantly correlated with temperature and rainfall. Pesticide concentrations in the stormwater pond were significantly correlated with pesticide concentrations in the adjacent tidal creek. Chlorophyll and FCB levels in the tidal creek, however, were not significantly correlated with levels in the pond. While stormwater ponds are beneficial in controlling flooding, they may pose environmental and human health risks due to biological and chemical contamination. Management to reduce residential runoff may improve water quality in coastal stormwater ponds and their adjacent estuarine ecosystems.     

Singular Spectrum Analytic (SSA) Decomposition and Reconstruction of Flowering: Signatures of Climatic Impacts

An empirical approach for the decomposition and reconstruction of long-term flowering records of eight eucalypt species is presented. Results from singular spectrum analysis (SSA) allow for characterisation of the dynamic and complex flowering patterns in response to temperature and rainfall throughout the year. SSA identified trend, annual, biennial and other sub-components of flowering. The ability to discriminate flowering and climate relationships is demonstrated based on SSA (cross-)correlation analysis. SSA also identified the cyclical influence of temperature and rainfall on peak flowering. For each species, there is, on average, 6 months of the annual cycle when temperature positively influences flowering and 6 months when the influence of temperature is negative. For all species, rainfall exerts a negative influence when temperature is positive. Investigation of short-term and long-term lags of climate on flowering provided best-case climatic scenarios for each species’ flowering; e.g. more intense peak flowering is likely in Eucalyptus leucoxylon when cool, wet conditions coincide with peak flowering and is further enhanced if the preceding autumn and winter were warm and dry, and the previous spring and summer cool and wet. Three clear species groupings, according to similar SSA (cross-)correlation signatures, were identified: (1) E. leucoxylon and E. tricarpa; (2) E. camaldulensis, E. melliodora and E. polyanthemos and (3) E. goniocalyx, E. microcarpa and E. macrorhyncha. Lastly, change point years for flowering based on SSA sub-components in four of the species seem to align with years of major shift in global ENSO signal (1951/1957/1958) as indicated by the extended multivariate ENSO index.     

Two Measured Parameters Correlated to Participation Rates in Curbside Recycling Schemes in the UK

Local authorities in the United Kingdom are currently changing their approach towards recycling as they attempt to meet legislative targets. An important part of this drive is the provision of an effective curbside recycling service and it is vital to understand the parameters that influence the performance of the system offered. In this article, three primary datasets, collected from over 1400 households each, are examined for parameters correlated to participation rates. Two measured parameters were found that are not commonly identified in previous studies of curbside recycling schemes, and they are shown to merit further investigation as useful tools for planning purposes. One is the number of types of material collected; participation rates are greater for schemes collecting more materials. The second is the number of households situated on the same road; the lower the number, the higher the participation rate. In both cases, evidence of the measured correlation is presented, justifying their usefulness for planning. The multiple underlying factors causing the correlations are not identified here, but suggestions are made for further studies.     

Estimating yields of salt- and water-stressed forages with remote sensing in the visible and near infrared

In arid irrigated regions, the proportion of crop production under deficit irrigation with poorer quality water is increasing as demand for fresh water soars and efforts to prevent saline water table development occur. Remote sensing technology to quantify salinity and water stress effects on forage yield can be an important tool to address yield loss potential when deficit irrigating with poor water quality. Two important forages, alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and tall wheatgrass (Agropyron elongatum L.), were grown in a volumetric lysimeter facility where rootzone salinity and water content were varied and monitored. Ground-based hyperspectral canopy reflectance in the visible and near infrared (NIR) were related to forage yields from a broad range of salinity and water stress conditions. Canopy reflectance spectra were obtained in the 350- to 1000-nm region from two viewing angles (nadir view, 45 degrees from nadir). Nadir view vegetation indices (VI) were not as strongly correlated with leaf area index changes attributed to water and salinity stress treatments for both alfalfa and wheatgrass. From a list of 71 VIs, two were selected for a multiple linear-regression model that estimated yield under varying salinity and water stress conditions. With data obtained during the second harvest of a three-harvest 100-d growing period, regression coefficients for each crop were developed and then used with the model to estimate fresh weights for preceding and succeeding harvests during the same 100-d interval. The model accounted for 72% of the variation in yields in wheatgrass and 94% in yields of alfalfa within the same salinity and water stress treatment period. The model successfully predicted yield in three out of four cases when applied to the first and third harvest yields. Correlations between indices and yield increased as canopy development progressed. Growth reductions attributed to simultaneous salinity and water stress were well characterized, but the corrections for effects of varying tissue nitrogen (N) and very low leaf area index (LAI) are necessary.     

The case for regulating intragenic GMOs

This paper discusses the ethical and regulatory issues raised by “intragenics” – organisms that have been genetically modified using gene technologies, but that do not contain DNA from another species. Considering the rapid development of knowledge about gene regulation and genomics, we anticipate rapid advances in intragenic methods. Of regulatory systems developed to govern genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, the Australian system stands out in explicitly excluding intragenics from regulation. European systems are also under pressure to exclude intragenics from regulation. We evaluate recent arguments that intragenics are safer and more morally acceptable than transgenic organisms, and more acceptable to the public, which might be thought to justify a lower standard of regulation. We argue that the exemption of intragenics from regulation is not justified, and that there may be significant environmental risks associated with them. We conclude that intragenics should be subject to the same standard of regulation as other GMOs.