A game theoretic approach to multimodal communication

Over the last few decades the animal communication community has become increasingly aware that much communication occurs using multiple signals in multiple modalities. The majority of this work has been empirical, with less theoretical work on the advantages conferred by such communication. In the present paper, we ask: Why should animals communicate with multiple signals in multiple modalities? To tackle this question we use game theoretic techniques, and highlight developments in the economic signaling literature that might offer insight into biological problems. We start by establishing a signaling game, and investigate signal honesty under two prevailing paradigms of honest communication – costly signaling and cheap talk. In both paradigms, without further constraint, it is simple to show that anything that can be achieved with multiple signals can be achieved with one. We go on to investigate different sets of possible constraints that may make multiple signals and multimodal signals in particular more likely to evolve. We suggest that constraints on cost functions and bandwidths, orthogonal noise across modalities, strategically distinct modes, multiple qualities, multiple signalers, and multiple audiences, all provide biologically plausible scenarios that theoretically favor multiple and multimodal signaling.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

World diamond industry: 1970–2000

The diamond cartel has remained effective in controlling diamond supplies and prices for a longer period than any other major minerals cartel in the twentieth century. This paper examines the diamond pipeline from mine to the jewellery market. Particular attention is given to the characteristics of diamonds and of the industry structure that make the long-term stability of the cartel possible. The strategies of De Beers Consolidated Diamond Mines in controlling rough gem supplies and prices are examined, and projections are made to 2000. The paper shows that in spite of a projected decrease in the share of total diamond production sold through the De Beers' cartel in the 1990s, the cartel is expected to continue effectively to control supplies and prices.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

Managing petroleum refining wastes by thermal desorption

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has developed regulations under the Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments (HSWA) of 1984 to restrict the land disposal of hazardous wastes. As a result of the regulations, all hazardous wastes to be placed on the land must meet treatment standards based on the performance of the best demonstrated available technology (BDAT) identified for individual waste classifications. The Marathon Oil Company is currently evaluating innovative technologies for managing listed waste materials, with a focus on waste minimization and recycling. Remediation Technologies, Inc. (ReTeC) has conducted testing on wastewater treatment sludges from three Marathon refineries using a proprietary thermal desorption technology. The results from these tests have demonstrated that the technology has the ability to consistently meet BDAT treatment standards, while preferentially separating and condensing residual moisture and oils from the material.     

SOIL MOISTURE SENSORS FOR CONTINUOUS MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Certain physical and chemical properties of soil vary with soil water content. The relationship between these properties and water content is complex and involves both the pore structure and constituents of the soil solution. One of the most economical techniques to quantify soil water content involves the measurement of electrical resistance of a dielectric medium that is in equilibrium with the soil water content. The objective of this research was to test the reliability and accuracy of fiberglass soil-moisture electrical resistance sensors (ERS) as compared to gravimetric sampling and Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR). The response of the ERS was compared to gravimetric measurements at eight locations on the USDA-ABS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. The comparisons with TDR sensors were made at three additional locations on the same watershed. The high soil rock content (≥45 percent) at seven locations resulted in consistent overestimation of soil water content by the ERS method. Where rock content was less than 10 percent, estimation of soil water was within 5 percent of the gravimetric soil water content. New methodology to calibrate the ERS sensors for rocky soils will need to be developed before soil water content values can be determined with these sensors.     

Evaluation of a chemical stabilization process

Environmental Resources Management (ERM) performed an evaluation of a biosolids chemical stabilization process known as BIO*FIX®, marketed by Bio Gro Systems, Inc., of Annapolis, Maryland. The purpose of the evaluation was (1) to assess major characteristics of the process and its final product, (2) to determine the quantity and final disposition of all components in the incoming biosolids, and (3) to determine if the process conforms to new regulations promulgated and administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) titled “Standards for the Use or Disposal of Sewage Sludges” (40 CFR Part 503). The BIO*FIX® chemical stabilization process involves the addition of calcium oxide (CaO) to dewatered biosolids at rates that achieve the pathogen reduction and vector attraction reduction requirements of the 503 program while creating a marketable end product used as an agricultural amendment. ERM's project involved the testing of four process streams in order to create a mass balance on the process. Laboratory analyses were performed on samples of the dewatered biosolids, the chemically-stabilized end product, and the scrubber water effluent. The primary components of concern tested in the above process streams were ammonia, metals, odorous compounds, particulate matter, and organic matter. Through the tests described in the article, ERM drew the following conclusions: (1) The major gaseous pollutant resulting from the BIO*FIX® process is gaseous ammonia. The total gaseous ammonia released from the product depends on the ammonia nitrogen content of the biosolids, and pH and temperature levels reached in the process. Additional ammonia is emitted when the end product is loaded in trucks and stored. Any gaseous ammonia remaining in the end product after processing will slowly dissipate over time. (2) Other potential odor pollutants such as hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) and mercaptans were found to be below detectable levels in the uncontrolled exhaust gas. (3) Metals were not found in the exhaust gas in any detectable quantities. They would not be expected to volatilize during the process. Particulate matter emissions were found to be very low. (4) The pathogen reduction and vector attraction reduction requirements of the 40 CFR 503 regulations were met or exceeded. (5) Finally, through observations and tests, ERM found that the BIO*FIX® chemical stabilization process provides for a simple, viable, and effective conversion of biosolids into a beneficial use product in compliance with all pertinent regulations.     

Drainage Investment and Wetlands Loss: an Analysis of the National Resources Inventory Data

The United States Soil Conservation Service (SCS) conducts a survey for the purpose of establishing an agricultural land use database. This survey is called the National Resources Inventory (NRI) database. The complex NRI land classification system, in conjunction with the quantitative information gathered by the survey, has numerous applications. The current paper uses the wetland area data gathered by the NRI in 1982 and 1987 to examine empirically the factors that generate wetland loss in the United States. The cross-section regression models listed here use the quantity of wetlands, the stock of drainage capital, the realty value of farmland and drainage costs to explain most of the cross-state variation in wetland loss rates. Wetlands preservation efforts by federal agencies assume that pecuniary economic factors play a decisive role in wetland drainage. The empirical models tested in the present paper validate this assumption.