The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

Modeling the dynamic habitat and breeding population of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

To aid in the management and conservation of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus, hereafter “Flycatcher”), we developed numerous models of flycatcher breeding habitat at Roosevelt Lake, AZ. For model development and testing, we compiled 10 years of flycatcher territory data that were obtained from intensive fieldwork between 1996 and 2005. We identified riparian vegetation annually in the project area from Landsat Thematic Mapper images, and extracted floodplain features from a digital elevation model. We created a novel class of temporal (i.e., multiyear) variables by characterizing the stability and variability in breeding habitat over a 6-year time interval. We used logistic regression to determine associations between environmental variables and flycatcher territory occurrence, and to test specific hypotheses. We mapped the probability of territory occurrence with a GIS and determined model accuracies with a classification table and a 10-year population database. Environmental features that were associated with breeding flycatchers included floodplain size, proximity to water, and the density, heterogeneity, age and stability of riparian vegetation. Our best model explained 79% of the variability in the flycatcher breeding population at Roosevelt Lake. The majority of predicted flycatcher habitat formed between 1996 and 2004 on an exposed lakebed ～3 years after water levels receded during a prolonged drought. A high correlation between annual reservoir levels and predicted breeding habitat (r = ?0.82) indicates that we can create and manage habitat for conservation purposes. Our predictive models quantify and assess the relative quality of flycatcher breeding habitat remotely, and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities. Numerous techniques we developed can be used to characterize riparian vegetation and patch dynamics directly off of satellite imagery, thereby increasing its utility for conservation purposes.     

Nitrogen critical loads and management alternatives for N-impacted ecosystems in California

Empirical critical loads for N deposition effects and maps showing areas projected to be in exceedance of the critical load (CL) are given for seven major vegetation types in California. Thirty-five percent of the land area for these vegetation types (99,639 km²) is estimated to be in excess of the N CL. Low CL values (3–8 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) were determined for mixed conifer forests, chaparral and oak woodlands due to highly N-sensitive biota (lichens) and N-poor or low biomass vegetation in the case of coastal sage scrub (CSS), annual grassland, and desert scrub vegetation. At these N deposition critical loads the latter three ecosystem types are at risk of major vegetation type change because N enrichment favors invasion by exotic annual grasses. Fifty-four and forty-four percent of the area for CSS and grasslands are in exceedance of the CL for invasive grasses, while 53 and 41% of the chaparral and oak woodland areas are in exceedance of the CL for impacts on epiphytic lichen communities. Approximately 30% of the desert (based on invasive grasses and increased fire risk) and mixed conifer forest (based on lichen community changes) areas are in exceedance of the CL. These ecosystems are generally located further from emissions sources than many grasslands or CSS areas. By comparison, only 3–15% of the forested and chaparral land areas are estimated to be in exceedance of the NO₃^? leaching CL. The CL for incipient N saturation in mixed conifer forest catchments was 17 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1. In 10% of the CL exceedance areas for all seven vegetation types combined, the CL is exceeded by at least 10 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1, and in 27% of the exceedance areas the CL is exceeded by at least 5 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1. Management strategies for mitigating the effects of excess N are based on reducing N emissions and reducing site N capital through approaches such as biomass removal and prescribed fire or control of invasive grasses by mowing, selective herbicides, weeding or domestic animal grazing. Ultimately, decreases in N deposition are needed for long-term ecosystem protection and sustainability, and this is the only strategy that will protect epiphytic lichen communities.     

Sorption and Biodegradation of Vapor-Phase Organic Compounds with Wastewater Sludge and Food Waste Compost

ABSTRACT

To test the possible use of composted food waste and wastewater sludge as biofilters to treat gas-phase volatile organic compounds (VOCs), batch experiments were conducted with an isolated strain that could degrade aromatic compounds under aerobic conditions. A benzene and trichloroethylene (TCE) mixture was used as the gas-phase pollutant in experiments with composted food waste, sludge, and soil. Under aerobic conditions, benzene was degraded as a primary substrate and TCE was degraded cometabolically, with water contents varying from 6 to 60% (volume of water added/volume of solid). Optimal water content for VOC removal was 12% for the soil, 36% for the composted food waste, and 48% for the sludge.

The extent of VOC sorption and biodegradation at the optimal water content was different for each material. With the same initial VOC concentration, more VOCs were removed by sorption onto the composted food waste and the sludge, while less VOCs were biodegraded in comparison with the results using soil. The reason the biodegradation in the soil was greater may be partly attributed to the fact that, due to less sorption, the aqueous-phase concentration of VOCs, which microorganisms could utilize as a carbon source or cometabolize, was higher. We also speculate that the distribution of microorganisms in each medium affects the rate of biodegradation. A large number of microorganisms were attached to the composted food waste and sludge. Mass transfer of VOCs and oxygen to these microorganisms, which appear to have been heterogeneously distributed in clusters, may have been limited, resulting in hindered biodegradation.     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.     

Effects of a complex archipelago on genetic subdivision of the intertidal limpet Siphonaria kurracheensis

Allozyme variation in the intertidal limpet Siphonaria kurracheensis was examined in 11 populations from the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, and four from the adjacent mainland, to test if the effects of these islands on genetic subdivision should include species with high dispersal. Consistent with extensive planktonic dispersal, genetic subdivision was low, with an average standardized variance in allelic frequencies (F_ST) of 0.010 over 400 km along the mainland, and 0.009 over 70 km in the Abrolhos Islands. Nevertheless, subdivision was statistically significant at the smallest scale examined (about 10 km), showing a pattern of local heterogeneity and large-scale homogeneity, which is common in planktonic dispersers. Among the island populations, heterozygosity was positively correlated with a multivariate index of exposure. The level of heterozygosity at the most exposed island sites is equivalent to that at the (also exposed) mainland sites, whereas it is lower in the most sheltered island sites. Although this indicates that some island populations are less well connected to the major pool of larvae, the overall effect of the archipelago on genetic subdivision is no greater than occurs on the mainland coast. This is contrary to findings in previously studied species with less potential for dispersal, suggesting that the local impediments to dispersal are selective in their effects, and are unlikely to be broadly important for genetic divergence in widely dispersing species.     

Variation of the Relative Humidity of Air Released from Canisters after Ambient Sampling

ABSTRACT

Dalton's law of partial pressures and the hypothesis that water vapor equilibrium in a canister is identical to that established above liquid water are used to predict the variation of the percent relative humidity (%RH) of air released from canisters used in ambient air sampling, typically 6-L canisters pressurized with 18 L of air. When (and if) the water vapor partial pressure in a canister exceeds its saturation vapor pressure, water vapor condensation begins and the condensation rate equals the sampling rate of water vapor into the canister. Under constant temperature conditions, the air subsequently released from the canister is less humid than the original sample, following the relationship %RH = 100% (6 L/V_s) for V_s> V_r, where V_s is the residual air volume (referenced to atmospheric pressure), and V_r is shown to depend on the %RH of the ambient air sample. V_r is the residual air volume at which water is completely removed (except for adsorbed water vapor) from the canister wall. For V_s < V_r, the predicted %RH is constant and equal to its value at V_r. Experimental values agree reasonably well with predictions at both high (90%) and low (34%) RH. However, experimental values are often slightly displaced (usually towards lower values of %RH) for mid-range %RH (61%) and variations in %RH near V_r change from canister to canister.     

A game theoretic approach to multimodal communication

Over the last few decades the animal communication community has become increasingly aware that much communication occurs using multiple signals in multiple modalities. The majority of this work has been empirical, with less theoretical work on the advantages conferred by such communication. In the present paper, we ask: Why should animals communicate with multiple signals in multiple modalities? To tackle this question we use game theoretic techniques, and highlight developments in the economic signaling literature that might offer insight into biological problems. We start by establishing a signaling game, and investigate signal honesty under two prevailing paradigms of honest communication – costly signaling and cheap talk. In both paradigms, without further constraint, it is simple to show that anything that can be achieved with multiple signals can be achieved with one. We go on to investigate different sets of possible constraints that may make multiple signals and multimodal signals in particular more likely to evolve. We suggest that constraints on cost functions and bandwidths, orthogonal noise across modalities, strategically distinct modes, multiple qualities, multiple signalers, and multiple audiences, all provide biologically plausible scenarios that theoretically favor multiple and multimodal signaling.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.