Linkages between the energy and agricultural sectors: insights from European Union greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios

Over the past decade, the relationship between agricultural and energy markets has strengthened. Traditional energy sources have been increasingly replaced by energy from biomass, and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Consequently, an assessment of the efficiency of bioenergy policies requires a comprehensive analysis of both agricultural and energy markets. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of two detailed European Union (EU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation policies on the utilization of biomass for energy production and the implications for agricultural prices and trade. The consequences of a policy-induced shift from consumption of fossil to renewable energy are assessed under full consideration of interrelations between the energy and agricultural sectors. To this end, we combine an energy system model and an agricultural sector model by establishing a consistent interface between them. Depending on the ambition of the GHG emission reduction scenarios, the results indicate significant price increases. Furthermore, the increase in European demand for energy crops is to a substantial degree covered by additional imports. These results highlight that GHG emission mitigation policies enacted in a large economy like the EU cannot be considered without accounting for indirect effects in the rest of the world. They put the efficiency and also the effectiveness of such policies in general into question.     

Up the down staircase: Wayfinding strategies in multi-level buildings

The intention of this article is to create a link between human spatial cognition research and architectural design. We conducted an empirical study with human subjects in a complex multi-level building and compared thinking aloud protocols and performance measures of experienced and inexperienced participants in different wayfinding tasks. Three specific strategies for navigation in multi-level buildings were compared. The central point strategy relies on well-known parts of the building; the direction strategy relies on routes that first head towards the horizontal position of the goal, while the floor strategy relies on routes that first head towards the vertical position of the goal. We show that the floor strategy was preferred by experienced participants over the other strategies and was overall tied to better wayfinding performance. Route knowledge showed a greater impact on wayfinding performance compared to survey knowledge. A cognitive-architectural analysis of the building revealed seven possible causes for navigation problems. Especially the staircase design was identified as a major wayfinding obstacle. Finally we address the benefits of cognitive approaches for the architectural design process and describe some open issues for further research.     

Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 °C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.     

Reviewing the relevance of dioxin and PCB sources for food from animal origin and the need for their inventory,control and management

Background

In the past, cases of PCDD/F and PCB contamination exceeding limits in food from animal origin (eggs, meat or milk) were mainly caused by industrially produced feed. But in the last decade, exceedances of EU limit values were discovered more frequently for PCDD/Fs or dioxin-like(dl)-PCBs from free range chicken, sheep, and beef, often in the absence of any known contamination source.

Results

The German Environment Agency initiated a project to elucidate the entry of PCBs and PCDD/Fs in food related to environmental contamination. This paper summarizes the most important findings. Food products from farm animals sensitive to dioxin/PCB exposure—suckling calves and laying hens housed outdoor—can exceed EU maximum levels at soil concentrations that have previously been considered as safe. Maximum permitted levels can already be exceeded in beef/veal when soil is contaminated around 5 ng PCB-TEQ/kg dry matter (dm). For eggs/broiler, this can occur at a concentration of PCDD/Fs in soil below 5 ng PCDD/F–PCB-TEQ/kg dm. Egg consumers—especially young children—can easily exceed health-based guidance values (TDI). The soil–chicken egg exposure pathway is probably the most sensitive route for human exposure to both dl-PCBs and PCDD/Fs from soil and needs to be considered for soil guidelines. The study also found that calves from suckler cow herds are most prone to the impacts of dl-PCB contamination due to the excretion/accumulation via milk. PCB (and PCDD/F) intake for free-range cattle stems from feed and soil. Daily dl-PCB intake for suckler cow herds must in average be less than 2 ng PCB-TEQ/day. This translates to a maximum concentration in grass of 0.2 ng PCB-TEQ/kg dm which is less than 1/6 of the current EU maximum permitted level. This review compiles sources for PCDD/Fs and PCBs relevant to environmental contamination in respect to food safety. It also includes considerations on assessment of emerging POPs.

Conclusions

The major sources of PCDD/F and dl-PCB contamination of food of animal origin in Germany are (1) soils contaminated from past PCB and PCDD/F releases; (2) PCBs emitted from buildings and constructions; (3) PCBs present at farms. Impacted areas need to be assessed with respect to potential contamination of food-producing animals. Livestock management techniques can reduce exposure to PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Further research and regulatory action are needed to overcome gaps. Control and reduction measures are recommended for emission sources and new listed and emerging POPs to ensure food safety.

     

Multiple biomarker responses in caged benthic gastropods <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bellamya aeruginosa</Emphasis> after in situ exposure to Taihu Lake in China

Background

Freshwater sediments have been recognized as a long-term sink and potential source for environmental pollutants released into the aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the sediment quality of Taihu Lake, which is susceptible to anthropogenic contamination, was assessed by a combination of chemical analytical and biological end points. Specifically, the snail Bellamya aeruginosa was caged in situ at two locations representing different pollution levels for different exposure times (7, 14 and 21 days). At each of these time points, biochemical parameters, i.e., phase I biotransformation enzymes ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD), the antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase and catalase, reactive oxygen species, protein carbonyl content and lipid peroxidation, were evaluated in the hepatopancreas of snails. In addition, surface sediments were collected for analysis of contaminants of concern, including inorganic pollutants, organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenyl ethers.

Results

Chemical analyses revealed that sediments from Taihu Lake were contaminated with trace elements and organic pollutants. Concentrations of trace elements (Cu, Ni and As) and organochlorinated pesticides (4,4′-DDE) exceeded their corresponding threshold effect level according to the sediment quality assessment values for freshwater ecosystems in Canada, indicating that adverse biological effects may occur. All biomarkers, except EROD activity, were induced in snails during all exposure times. The integrated biomarker response index (IBR) indicated that during the initial exposure phase (7 days), B. aeruginosa were subjected to significant environmental stress, which diminished during later sampling time points.

Conclusions

Results showed that IBR correlated well with the levels of environmental contaminants, demonstrating the applicability of this biomonitoring approach to complex environmental exposure scenarios.

     

The economic dynamics of antibiotic efficacy under open access

We analyze the exploitation of an antibiotic in a market subject to open access on the part of antibiotic producers to the common pool of antibiotic efficacy. While the market equilibrium depends only on current levels of antibiotic efficacy and infection of the epidemiological system, the social optimum accounts for the dynamic externalities which relate those levels to the intertemporal use being made of the antibiotic. We show that depending on the parameters of the model, in particular the cost of production and the improvement in the recovery rate that results from antibiotic treatment, the positive steady-state level of antibiotic efficacy to which the system tends under open access can be lower or higher than the level which should prevail in the socially optimal steady state. In fact there are parameter configurations for which the steady states can be exactly the same. However, the paths leading to the steady state always differ.     

The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.     

Acute toxicity of copper,lead, cadmium,and zinc to early life stages of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in laboratory and Columbia River water

Populations of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) are in decline in North America. This is attributed, primarily, to poor recruitment, and white sturgeon are listed as threatened or endangered in several parts of British Columbia, Canada, and the United States. In the Columbia River, effects of metals have been hypothesized as possible contributing factors. Previous work has demonstrated that early life stage white sturgeon are particularly sensitive to certain metals, and concerns over the level of protectiveness of water quality standards are justified. Here we report results from acute (96-h) toxicity tests for copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), zinc (Zn), and lead (Pb) from parallel studies that were conducted in laboratory water and in the field with Columbia River water. Water effect ratios (WERs) and sensitivity parameters (i.e., median lethal accumulations, or LA50s) were calculated to assess relative bioavailability of these metals in Columbia River water compared to laboratory water, and to elucidate possible differences in sensitivity of early life stage white sturgeon to the same concentrations of metals when tested in the different water sources. For Cu and Pb, white sturgeon toxicity tests were initiated at two life stages, 8 and 40 days post-hatch (dph), and median lethal concentrations (LC50s) ranged between 9–25 μg Cu/L and 177–1,556 μg Pb/L. LC50s for 8 dph white sturgeon exposed to Cd in laboratory water and river water were 14.5 and 72 μg/L, respectively. Exposure of 8 dph white sturgeon to Zn in laboratory and river water resulted in LC50s of 150 and 625 μg/L, respectively. Threshold concentrations were consistently less in laboratory water compared with river water, and as a result, WERs were greater than 1 in all cases. In addition, LA50s were consistently greater in river water exposures compared with laboratory exposures in all paired tests. These results, in combination with results from the biotic ligand model, suggest that the observed differences in toxicity between river water exposures and laboratory water exposures were not entirely due to differences in water quality and metal bioavailability but rather in combination with differences in fish sensitivity. It is hypothesized that differences in concentrations of calcium in the different water sources might have resulted in differences in acquired sensitivity of sturgeon to metals. Canadian water quality guidelines, US national criteria for the protection of aquatic life, and water quality criteria for the state of Washington were less than LC50 values for all metals and life stages tested in laboratory and Columbia River water. With the exception, however, that 40 dph white sturgeon exposed to Cu in laboratory water resulted in threshold values that bordered US national criteria and criteria for the state of Washington.     

Questioning the Doubt: Climate Skepticism in German Newspaper Reporting on COP17

Despite numerous international studies on climate change, there is skepticism in the media and it is prominent in public opinion polls. This article focuses in particular on the framing of climate skepticism in Germany, a country that, in the main, is said to be convinced about climate change. By using a two-step content analysis of 379 news articles (print and online) we demonstrate that climate skepticism is present in German news media reporting on the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Durban, South Africa. We identify two overarching skepticism frames: skepticism about the phenomenon of climate change and about climate science. Our analysis further shows that climate skepticism is not exclusive to a specific political ideology, even though a newspaper's ideology may influence how skeptical frames are being evaluated.