A comparison of statistical methods for deriving freshwater quality criteria for the protection of aquatic organisms

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly used in both ecological risk assessment and derivation of water quality criteria. However, there has been debate about the choice of an appropriate approach for derivation of water quality criteria based on SSDs because the various methods can generate different values. The objective of this study was to compare the differences among various methods. Data sets of acute toxicities of 12 substances to aquatic organisms, representing a range of classes with different modes of action, were studied. Nine typical statistical approaches, including parametric and nonparametric methods, were used to construct SSDs for 12 chemicals. Water quality criteria, expressed as hazardous concentration for 5 % of species (HC₅), were derived by use of several approaches. All approaches produced comparable results, and the data generated by the different approaches were significantly correlated. Variability among estimates of HC₅ of all inclusive species decreased with increasing sample size, and variability was similar among the statistical methods applied. Of the statistical methods selected, the bootstrap method represented the best-fitting model for all chemicals, while log-triangle and Weibull were the best models among the parametric methods evaluated. The bootstrap method was the primary choice to derive water quality criteria when data points are sufficient (more than 20). If the available data are few, all other methods should be constructed, and that which best describes the distribution of the data was selected.     

Modelling changes in nitrogen emissions into the Oder River System 1875–1944

Studies of nutrient emissions into surface waters are usually only performed for years in recent decades. However, estimating nutrient emissions for the more distant past enables us to identify the main factors responsible for the increasing nutrient contamination since the end of the nineteenth century. We focussed on the Oder River System for 1875–1944, divided into 10-year periods. Nutrient emissions into surface waters were calculated with the model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems). For seven different pathways and eight sources, the total nitrogen (TN) emissions were quantified. The TN-emissions into the surface waters for 1880 amounted to 25,300 t?year^?1, and by 1940, this value had almost doubled to 46,600?t?year^?1. In 1880, 57% of TN-emissions into the surface waters derived from urban systems, due to the high amount of untreated waste water. In 1940, only 34% of TN-emissions into surface waters derived from urban systems, despite a population growth of about 27% since 1880; point sources via newly constructed waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) increased from 4% (1880) to 26% (1940). During the study period, the main changes in diffuse TN-emissions from agriculture were caused by inorganic fertilizer application and nitrogen deposition, while TN-emissions via urban sources were shifted to point sources due to population growth and the construction of new WWTPs. Furthermore, estimated TN-concentrations could make a contribution to construct benchmarks for nutrient concentrations according to the physiochemical properties to implement the European Water Framework Directive (WFD 2000).     

Photoinduced reduction of divalent mercury in ice by organic matter

Reduction of divalent mercury and subsequent emission to the atmosphere has been identified as loss process from surface snow, but its mechanism and importance are still unclear. The amount of mercury that stays in the snow pack until spring is of significance, because during snow melt it may be released to the aquatic environment and enter the food web. Better knowledge of its fate in snow might further assist the interpretation of ice core data as paleo-archive. Experiments were performed under well-controlled laboratory conditions in a coated wall flow tube at atmospheric pressure and irradiated with light between 300 nm and 420 nm. Our results show that the presence of benzophenone and of oxalic acid significantly enhances the release of mercury from the ice film during irradiation, whereas humic acid is less potent to promote the reduction. Further it was found that oxygen or chloride, and acidic conditions lowered the photolytically induced mercury release in the presence of benzophenone, while the release got larger with increasing temperatures.     

The endocrine disrupting potential of sediments from the Upper Danube River (Germany) as revealed by in vitro bioassays and chemical analysis

Introduction  

The present study was part of a comprehensive weight-of-evidence approach with the goal of identifying potential causes for the declines in fish populations, which have been observed during the past decades in the Upper Danube River.     

Interactions between accumulation of trace elements and macronutrients in Salix caprea after inoculation with rhizosphere microorganisms

Although the beneficial effects on growth and trace element accumulation in Salix spp. inoculated with microbes are well known, little information is available on the interactions among trace elements and macronutrients. The main purpose of this study was to assess the effect of phytoaugmentation with the rhizobacteria Agromyces sp., Streptomyces sp., and the combination of each of them with the fungus Cadophora finlandica on biomass production and the accumulation of selected trace elements (Zn, Cd, Fe) and macronutrients (Ca, K, P and Mg) in Salix caprea grown on a moderately polluted soil. Dry matter production was significantly enhanced only upon inoculation with Agromyces sp. Regarding the phytoextraction of Cd and Zn, shoot concentrations were mostly increased after inoculation with Streptomyces sp. and Agromyces sp. + C. finlandica. These two treatments also showed higher translocation factors from roots to the leaves for both Cd and Zn. The accumulation of Cd and Zn in shoots was related to increased concentrations of K. This suggests that microorganisms that contribute to enhanced phytoextraction of Cd and Zn affect also the solubility and thus phytoavailability of K. This study suggests that the phytoextraction of Zn and Cd can be improved by inoculation with selected microbial strains.     

Physicochemical controls on initiation and evolution of desiccation cracks in sand-bentonite mixtures: X-ray CT imaging and stochastic modeling

The shrink-swell behavior of active clays in response to changes in physicochemical conditions creates great challenges for construction of geotechnical barriers for hazardous waste isolation, and is of significant importance for management of agricultural and natural resources. Initiation and evolution of desiccation cracks in active clays are strongly dependent on physicochemical initial and boundary conditions. To investigate effects of bentonite content (20, 40, 60%), pore fluid chemistry (0.05 and 0.5M NaCl) and drying rates (40 and 60°C) on cracking behavior, well-controlled dehydration experiments were conducted and X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) was applied to visualize and quantify geometrical features of evolving crack networks. A stochastic model based on the Fokker-Plank equation was adopted to describe the evolution of crack aperture distributions (CAD) and to assess the impact of physicochemical factors on cracking behavior. Analyses of crack porosity and crack specific surface area showed that both clay content and temperature had larger impact on cracking than pore fluid concentration. More cracks formed at high bentonite contents (40 and 60%) and at high drying rate (60°C). The drift, diffusion and source terms derived from stochastic analysis indicated that evaporative demand had greater influence on the dynamics of the CAD than solution chemistry.     

Impact of mineral components and selected trace metals on ambient PM10 concentrations

PM10 levels of the mineral components Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg and some trace metals were measured at three different sites in the urban area of Vienna (Austria). Observed trace metal concentrations varied between less than 0.1 ng m^?3 (Cd) and approximately 200 ng m^?3 (Zn), mineral components showed enhanced concentrations ranging from 0.01 μg m^?3 (Ca) to 16.3 μg m^?3 (Si). The contribution of the respective mineral oxides to PM10 mass concentrations accounted on average for 26.4 ± 16% (n = 1090) of the PM10 mass, with enhanced rates in spring and autumn (monthly averages of up to 40%) and decreased contributions in the cold season (monthly averages below 10%). The atmospheric occurrence of Al, Ti and Sr could be assigned to crustal sources, whereas for the elements Ba, Ca, Fe, Mg, Mn and V an increased contribution of non-crustal origin was observed. PM10 levels of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sn and Zn were predominantly derived from man-made emissions. Intersite comparison indicated that urban PM10 mass concentrations and PM10 levels of As, Pb and Zn were predominantly influenced from the transport of aerosols from outside into the city, whereas for the elements Ba, Mg, Ca, Cu and Fe a distinctly increased impact of local emissions was observed. The contribution of these urban emissions to total PM10 concentrations was estimated by calculating the so-called “urban impact”, which was found to be 32.7 ± 18% (n = 392) in the case of PM10 mass concentrations. The investigated elements accounted on average for 31.3 ± 19% (n = 392) of the observed PM10 mass increase. The mean values for the “urban impacts” of individual elements varied between 25.5% (As) and 77.0% (Ba).     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.