Influence of storage and release on particle emissions from new and used CRTs

This paper describes the results of three experiments performed with Continuously Regenerating Traps (CRTs^®) in a controlled laboratory setting to elucidate the effects of fuel sulfur content, filter age, and storage and release effects on particle concentration. In the first experiment, a new CRT was tested using near zero sulfur Fischer-Tropsch fuel and low sulfur lubricating oil (420 ppm). The objective was to measure particle emissions from an emission control device that had not previously been exposed to sulfur under a variety of operating and dilution conditions. Next, a used CRT was evaluated using the same fuel and lubricating oil. Finally, the used uncatalyzed Diesel particulate filter (DPF) from the used CRT was replaced with a new, uncatalyzed DPF. The emissions from the used Diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) + new DPF were evaluated and compared to those of the used CRT.Our laboratory results show that particle number emissions from the new CRTs are 99.9% lower than equivalent used CRT data collected on-road at an exhaust temperature of 370 °C. Even as the new CRT temperature was increased to almost 400 °C, emission levels were still at background levels for roadway aerosol and no nucleation mode was observed. With the used CRT, the nucleation mode particle number concentration increased sharply at an exhaust temperature of about 380 °C and remained high for the duration of the test. Mass emissions were estimated and found to exceed US EPA on-road standards. The used DOC + new DPF led to essentially the same number emissions as the used CRT, suggesting that these emissions arise mainly from release of sulfates stored by the DOC and not the uncatalyzed DPF.     

Long-term trends in water chemistry of acid-sensitive Swedish lakes show slow recovery from historic acidification

Long-term (1987–2012) water quality monitoring in 36 acid-sensitive Swedish lakes shows slow recovery from historic acidification. Overall, strong acid anion concentrations declined, primarily as a result of declines in sulfate. Chloride is now the dominant anion in many acid-sensitive lakes. Base cation concentrations have declined less rapidly than strong acid anion concentrations, leading to an increase in charge balance acid neutralizing capacity. In many lakes, modeled organic acidity is now approximately equal to inorganic acidity. The observed trends in water chemistry suggest lakes may not return to reference conditions. Despite declines in acid deposition, many of these lakes are still acidified. Base cation concentrations continue to decline and alkalinity shows only small increases. A changing climate may further delay recovery by increasing dissolved organic carbon concentrations and sea-salt episodes. More intensive forest harvesting may also hamper recovery by reducing the supply of soil base cations.     

Evaluating common drivers for color,iron and organic carbon in Swedish watercourses

The recent browning (increase in color) of surface waters across much of the northern hemisphere has important implications for light climate, ecosystem functioning, and drinking water treatability. Using log-linear regressions and long-term (6–21 years) data from 112 Swedish watercourses, we identified temporal and spatial patterns in browning-related parameters [iron, absorbance, and total organic carbon (TOC)]. Flow variability and lakes in the catchment were major influences on all parameters. Co-variation between seasonal, discharge-related, and trend effects on iron, TOC, and absorbance were dependent on pH, landscape position, catchment size, latitude, and dominant land cover. Large agriculture-dominated catchments had significantly larger trends in iron, TOC, and water color than small forest catchments. Our results suggest that while similarities exist, no single mechanism can explain the observed browning but show that multiple mechanisms related to land cover, climate, and acidification history are responsible for the ongoing browning of surface waters.     

THE EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-RELATED DROUGHT ON THE RECOVERY OF ACIDIFIED LAKES

Although SO₂ emissions and deposition rates havedeclined substantially since the implementation of sulphuremission control programmes in North America [1], recovery(measured as decreases in concentrations) of affected lakes in central Ontario has been much less substantial thananticipated based on the decrease in deposition. The slowrecovery is attributed to the reoxidation and release of storedsulphur in catchments. Reduced sulphur retained in previousyears when sulphur deposition was higher is exposed to air andoxidized during severe droughts, then exported duringsubsequent wet periods. Elevated stream concentrations and export rates occur in the autumns of yearswith prolonged severe droughts, particularly in catchments withextensive wetlands. Drought in our study catchments occurred inyears following strong El Niño events. When the SouthernOscillation Index (SOI) was strongly negative (1976–77, 1982–83,1986–87, 1991–92, 1993–94) the frequency of occurrence ofdrought the following summer in small catchments with shallowoverburden was extremely high. A lakes rate of recovery fromacidification depends upon the amount of excess reduced Sthat has been stored in anoxic zones in the catchment (largely afunction of the extent of wetlands) during years of elevated Sdeposition rates, and the frequency and severity of droughts. Iflong-term changes in global or regional climate alter thefrequency or magnitude of El Niño-related droughts, therecovery of acidified lakes will be affected.     

STEP WISE,MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values.     

Ensemble Bayesian model averaging using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery et al. Mon Weather Rev 133:1155–1174, 2005) has recommended the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model streamflow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.     

Patterns and Trends in Southern Ontario Lake ice Phenology

An analysis is presented of 46 ice break up and 15 ice free season phenology data series obtained largely through volunteer monitoring efforts in Southern Ontario. Observations spanned the years 1853–2001. Available data included dates of ice formation and ice break up as well as the number of ice free days in a year. A high degree of temporal coherence in ice phenology between lakes was observed (137/365 pairwise correlations significant at P<0.05). Significant monotonic trends towards earlier break up dates and longer ice free seasons were observed across the region both in the entire series and in the last thirty years of data. Trends in longer series may be associated with the end of the Little Ice Age. The significantly longer ice free seasons and earlier ice break up dates observed in the study area have important implications for lakes in other parts of Canada where climate change effects are predicted to be more extreme than in South-Central Ontario.