Current controversies in prenatal diagnosis 2: Cell-free DNA prenatal screening should be used to identify all chromosome abnormalities

Noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) using cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from maternal serum has been clinically available since 2011. This technology has revolutionized our ability to screen for the common aneuploidies trisomy 21 (Down syndrome), trisomy 18, and trisomy 13. More recently, clinical laboratories have offered screening for other chromosome abnormalities including sex chromosome abnormalities and copy number variants (CNV) without little published data on the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. In this debate, the pros and cons of performing prenatal screening via cfDNA for all chromosome abnormalities is discussed. At the time of the debate in 2017, the general consensus was that the literature does not yet support using this technology to screen for all chromosome abnormalities and that education is key for both providers and the patients so that the decision-making process is as informed as possible.     

Impact of host community composition on Lyme disease risk

The drivers of variable disease risk in complex multi-host disease systems have proved very difficult to identify. Here we test a model that explains the entomological risk of Lyme disease (LD) in terms of host community composition. The model was parameterized in a continuous forest tract at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (formerly the Institute of Ecosystem Studies) in New York State, U.S.A. We report the results of continuing longitudinal observations (10 years) at the Cary Institute, and of a shorter-term study conducted in forest fragments in LD endemic areas of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, USA. Model predictions were significantly correlated with the observed nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) in both studies, although the relationship was stronger in the longer-term Cary Institute study. Species richness was negatively, albeit weakly, correlated with NIP (logistic regression), and there was no relationship between the Shannon diversity index (H') and NIP. Although these results suggest that LD risk is in fact dependent on host diversity, the relationship relies explicitly on the identities and frequencies of host species such that conventional uses of the term biodiversity (i.e., richness, evenness, H') are less appropriate than are metrics that include species identity. This underscores the importance of constructing interaction webs for vertebrates and exploring the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic stressors on host community composition.     

Incorporating catastrophic risk assessments into setting conservation goals for threatened Pacific salmon

Catastrophic die-offs can have important consequences for vertebrate population growth and biodiversity, but catastrophic risks are not commonly incorporated into endangered-species recovery planning. Natural (e.g., landslides, floods) and anthropogenic (e.g., toxic leaks and spills) catastrophes pose a challenge for evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) of Pacific salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act and teetering at precariously low population levels. To spread risks among Puget Sound chinook salmon populations, recovery strategies for ESU-wide viability recommend at least two viable populations of historical life-history types in each of five geographic regions. We explored the likelihood of Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU persistence by examining spatial patterns of catastrophic risk and testing ESU viability recommendations for 22 populations of the threatened Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU. We combined geospatial information about catastrophic risks and chinook salmon distribution in Puget Sound watersheds to categorize relative catastrophic risks for each population. We then analyzed similarities in risk scores among regions and compared risk distributions among strategies: (1) population groups selected using the ESU viability recommendations of having populations spread out geographically and including historical life-history diversity, and (2) population groups selected at random. Risks from individual catastrophes varied among populations, but overall risk from catastrophes was similar within geographic regions. Recovery strategies that called for two viable populations in each of five geographic regions had lower risk than random strategies; strategies that included life-history diversity had even lower risks. Geographically distributed populations have varying catastrophic-risks profiles, thus identifying and reinforcing the spatial and life-history diversity critical for populations to respond to environmental change or needed to rescue severely depleted or extirpated populations. Recovery planning can promote viability of Pacific salmon ESUs across the landscape by incorporating catastrophic risk assessments.     

TOWARDS CHARACTERIZING AND PLANNING FOR DROUGHT IN VERMONT‐PART I: A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTWE1

ABSTRACT: In the Green Mountain state of Vermont, droughts of one form or another and of varying intensities, seventies, and areal extent are not uncommon occurrences. The 1990s were marked by at least three drought events of which the 1998 to 1999 was the most recent. In spite of this recurrence, ongoing drought monitoring and mitigative planning efforts are not as advanced as they could be and no official drought plan exists for the state. This article is the first of two in this volume. It summarizes the cascade of drought types that impacted the state during the 1998 to 1999 episode. From a number of precipitation statistics and drought indices, fine spatial scales (county or better) were found to best capture the character of drought impacts, while the weekly time step is recommended as the temporal unit around which to base planning and monitoring efforts. The companion article outlines a possible framework for drought planning efforts and highlights key constituencies to be included in the process.     

Disaster journalism: fostering citizen and community disaster mitigation,preparedness, response,recovery, and resilience across the disaster cycle

Natural and human‐caused disasters pose a significant risk to the health and well‐being of people. Journalists and news organisations can fulfil multiple roles related to disasters, ranging from providing warnings, assessing disaster mitigation and preparedness, and reporting on what occurs, to aiding long‐term recovery and fostering disaster resilience. This paper considers these possible functions of disaster journalism and draws on semi‐structured interviews with 24 journalists in the United States to understand better their approach to the discipline. A thematic analysis was employed, which resulted in the identification of five main themes and accompanying subthemes: (i) examining disaster mitigation and preparedness; (ii) facilitating recovery; (iii) self‐care and care of journalists; (iv) continued spread of social media; and (v) disaster journalism ethics. The paper concludes that disaster journalism done poorly can result in harm, but done well, it can be an essential instrument with respect to public disaster planning, management, response, and recovery.     

A Bayesian mixture model for missing data in marine mammal growth analysis

Much of what is known about bottle nose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) anatomy and physiology is based on necropsies from stranding events. Measurements of total body length, total body mass, and age are used to estimate growth. It is more feasible to retrieve and transport smaller animals for total body mass measurement than larger animals, introducing a systematic bias in sampling. Adverse weather events, volunteer availability, and other unforeseen circumstances also contribute to incomplete measurement. We have developed a Bayesian mixture model to describe growth in detected stranded animals using data from both those that are fully measured and those not fully measured. Our approach uses a shared random effect to link the missingness mechanism (i.e. full/partial measurement) to distinct growth curves in the fully and partially measured populations, thereby enabling drawing of strength for estimation. We use simulation to compare our model to complete case analysis and two common multiple imputation methods according to model mean square error. Results indicate that our mixture model provides better fit both when the two populations are present and when they are not. The feasibility and utility of our new method is demonstrated by application to South Carolina strandings data.     

Sex differences in the repeatability of boldness over metamorphosis

Consistent individual differences in boldness have been identified in many species and can have important effects on fitness. In most animals, juveniles face different costs and benefits of risk-taking behavior than do adults. Furthermore, profound changes in hormones, morphology and environment often occur when juveniles become adults. Therefore, the boldness of individuals might change with ontogeny. In field crickets, adult males call to attract sexually receptive females, and male calling increases predation risk. We measured the repeatability of boldness (latency to emerge from a safe refuge) in both male and female crickets. Each cricket was tested once as a small nymph and once as an adult. We found that boldness was repeatable across metamorphosis in females, but not in males. Males became less bold with maturation, a result that we predicted because of the risk associated with calling for mates. We also found that in general, nymphs were bolder than adults and that individuals spent more time immobile in response to a predator cue when they were nymphs, versus when they were adults.     

The impact of the invasive shrub Lonicera maackii on the decomposition dynamics of a native plant community

Invasive plants may have variable effects within a given environment depending on their interactions with the dominant native species, yet little research has examined such species-species interactions within a site. Savanna trees with nonoverlapping canopies offer an ideal opportunity to assess associated changes in the ecosystem processes that result from interactions between an invasive species and different native tree species. We examined the influence of the exotic invasive shrub Lonicera maackii on decomposition dynamics under three native tree species: Fraxinus quadrangulata, Quercus muehlenbergii, and Carya ovata. Litter decomposition rates and litter C and N were evaluated over two years using single- and mixed-species litterbags (L. maackii and individual tree species litter); microarthropod abundance was measured at 6 weeks using Tulgren funnels. Litter from the invasive L. maackii decomposed and lost N more rapidly than the litter of the three native tree species. The rate at which L. maackii decomposed depended on its location, with L. maackii litter decomposing and losing N more rapidly under C. ovata than under the other two native tree species. Mixing L. maackii with the native species' litter did not accelerate litter mass loss overall but did result in synergistic N losses at variable times throughout the experiment, further highlighting the variable interaction between native species and L. maackii. Nitrogen loss was significantly higher than expected in mixtures of C. ovata + L. maackii litter at 6 weeks, in F. quadrangulata + L. maackii litter at 12 weeks, and in Q. muehlenbergii + L. maackii litter at 24 weeks. If the effects of invasive species on certain ecosystem processes, such as litter decomposition, are strongly influenced by their association with native species, this could suggest the need for a more nuanced understanding of the vulnerability of ecosystem processes to invasions of L. maackii and potentially other invasive species.