The impact of climate change on global energy use

Robust decision making, a growing approach to infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty, aims to evaluate infrastructure performance across a wide range of possible conditions and identify the most robust strategies and designs. Robust decision making seeks to find potential weaknesses in systems in order to gird these through a combination of policy, infrastructure, and, in some cases, resilient or recovery strategies. A system can be explored by simulating many combinations of uncertain climatic and economic parameters; statistical clustering can identify parameter thresholds that lead to unacceptable performance. Often, however, uncertain variables are correlated, complicating the robustness analysis and casting doubt upon the thresholds identified. Here, we evaluate the impact of ordinary, hidden correlations in uncertainty parameters that drive simulation in robust decision making. We induced correlations between temperature and key climatic and economic parameters. We tested correlations of 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% between temperature and the absolute value of precipitation, coefficient of variation, and downward surface solar radiation, and negative correlations between temperature and net variable benefit and the discount rate. We used a calibrated simulation model of a dam system regulating Lake Tana, Ethiopia, to compute the agricultural supply and net present value of the reservoirs. As the correlation strength increased, the results converged in a smaller region. We found that strong correlations depressed robustness scores of lower-performing alternatives and conversely increased results of the higher-performing alternatives. As the correlations increased in favorable alternatives, the failure thresholds became more extreme, speciously suggesting that only intense changes would result in poor performance. This overall analysis highlights the degree to which correlations of an interconnected climatic and economic system can impact outcomes of robust decision making and suggests methods to avoid confounding results.

     

Mechanisms of nutrient attenuation in a subsurface flow riparian wetland

Riparian wetlands are transition zones between terrestrial and aquatic environments that have the potential to serve as nutrient filters for surface and ground water due to their topographic location. We investigated a riparian wetland that had been receiving intermittent inputs of NO3- and PO4(3-) during storm runoff events to determine the mechanisms of nutrient attenuation in the wetland soils. Few studies have shown whether infrequent pulses of NO3- are sufficient to maintain substantial denitrifying communities. Denitrification rates were highest at the upstream side of the wetland where nutrient-rich runoff first enters the wetland (17-58 microg N2O-N kg soil(-1) h(-1)) and decreased further into the wetland. Carbon limitation for denitrification was minor in the wetland soils. Samples not amended with dextrose had 75% of the denitrification rate of samples with excess dextrose C. Phosphate sorption isotherms suggested that the wetland soils had a high capacity for P retention. The calculated soil PO4(3-) concentration that would yield an equilibrium aqueous P04(3-) concentration of 0.05 mg P L(-1) was found to be 100 times greater than the soil PO4(3-) concentration at the time of sampling. This indicated that the wetland could retain a large additional mass of PO4(3-) without increasing the dissolved P04(3-) concentrations above USEPA recommended levels for lentic waters. These results demonstrated that denitrification can be substantial in systems receiving pulsed NO3- inputs and that sorption could account for extensive PO4(3-) attenuation observed at this site.     

Modeling and interpretation of fiber orientation-based failure mechanisms in machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites

The development and implementation of a microstructure-based finite element model for the machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites is presented. A new approach to interfacial modeling is introduced where the material interface is modeled using continuum elements, allowing failure to take place in either tension or compression. The model is capable of describing the fiber failure mode occurring throughout the chip formation process. Characteristic fiber length in the chips, and machining forces for microstructures with fibers orientated at 0°, 45°, 90°, and 135° are examined. For model validation purposes, the model-based machining performance predictions are compared to the machining responses from a set of orthogonal machining experiments. A parametric study is presented that identifies a robust tool geometry, which minimizes the effects of fiber orientation and size on the machining forces.     

Long-chain n-aldehydes

Dedicated to Prof. Dr. A. Buchs, University of Geneva, on the occasion of his 60th birthday.     

Detection of fetal HLA-DQα sequences in maternal blood: A gender-independent technique of fetal cell identification

The objective of this study was to detect fetal HLA-DQα gene sequences in maternal blood. HLA-DQα genotypes of 70 pregnant women and their partners were determined for type A1. We specifically sought couples where the father, but not the mother, had genotype A1. In 12 women, maternal blood samples were flow-sorted. Candidate fetal cells were isolated and amplified by using PCR primers specific for a paternal HLA-DQα A1 allele. Fetal HLA-DQα A1 genotype was predicted from sorted cells; amniocytes or cheek swabs were used for confirmation. Six of twelve sorted samples had amplification products indicating the presence of the HLA-DQα A1 allele; 6/12 did not. Prediction of the fetal genotype was 100 per cent correct, as determined by subsequent amplification of amniocytes or cheek swabs. We conclude that paternally inherited uniquely fetal HLA-DQα gene sequences can be identified in maternal blood. This system permits the identification of fetal cells independent of fetal gender, and has the potential for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of paternally inherited conditions.