A Maximum Entropy Approach to Estimating Emissions

ABSTRACT

A maximum information entropy method of calculating probabilistic estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the wood furniture and fixture coating industry is presented. The maximum entropy approach is used to produce minimally biased probability distributions for number of firms, coating use, and coating emission factors from existing summary statistics. These distributions are combined to estimate VOC emissions. The maximum entropy emissions estimate provides information to support probabilistic modeling of regional air quality, probabilistic assessment of emission reduction strategies, and risk assessments. Accurate estimation of emission distributions produces more informed regulatory decisionmaking, risk comparisons, and regulatory and scientific priority setting.     

Mixed Integer Linear Programming Models for Selecting Ground-Level Ozone Control Strategies

The traditional strategy for ground-level ozone control is to apply emission reductions across the board throughout certain time periods and locations. In this paper, we study various mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models that seek to select targeted control strategies for the Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) region to reduce emissions, in order to achieve the State Implementation Plan (SIP) requirements with minimum cost. Statistics and optimization methods are used to determine a potential set of cost-effective control strategies for reducing ozone. These targeted control strategies are specified for different types of emission sources in various time periods and locations. Three MILP models, a static model, a sequential model, and a dynamic model, are studied in this research. These different MILP models allow decision makers to study how the targeted control strategies change under different circumstances. Meanwhile, two types of auxiliary variables are considered as supplemental control strategies in the optimization if the current set of control strategies is unable to reduce ozone to comply with the 8-h ozone standard. Results from the different models can provide decision makers with information concerning how the effectiveness of the control strategies varies with daily emission patterns and meteorology.     

Mercury cycling in surface water, pore water and sediments of Mugu Lagoon, CA, USA

Mugu Lagoon is an estuary in southern California, listed as impaired for mercury. In 2005, we examined mercury cycling at ten sites within at most four habitats. In surface water (unfiltered and filtered) and pore water, the concentration of total mercury was correlated with methylmercury levels (R2=0.29, 0.26, 0.27, respectively, p<0.05), in contrast to sediments, where organic matter and reduced iron levels were most correlated with methylmercury content (R2=0.37, 0.26, respectively, p<0.05). Interestingly, levels for percent methylmercury of total mercury in sediments were higher than typical values for estuarine sediments (average 5.4%, range 0.024-38%, n=59), while pore water methylmercury Kd values were also high (average 3.1, range 2.0-4.2l kg(-1), n=39), and the estimated methylmercury flux from sediments was low (average 1.7, range 0.14-5.3ng m(-2) day(-1), n=19). Mercury levels in predatory fish tissue at Mugu are >0.3ppm, suggesting biogeochemical controls on methylmercury mobility do not completely mitigate methylmercury uptake through the food web.     

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 1--findings from recent field programs on the extent of regional transport within North America

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the role of aerosol transport, over length scales of approximately 100-1000 km, on fine particulate matter concentrations. Assessment of data from New York, NY; Baltimore, MD; Pittsburgh, PA; Atlanta, GA; Houston, TX; St. Louis, MO; and Fresno, CA, indicates that in virtually all of the regions, transport of aerosol over distances of 100-1000 km has a significant impact on urban particulate matter concentrations and a dominant role in determining rural particulate matter concentrations, though the nature of the regional contributions differs from region to region. This assessment is generally consistent with previous conceptual models of fine particulate matter formation and accumulation in these regions. The nature of the transported aerosol is largely sulfate in Eastern and Midwestern cities and nitrate in the Central Valley of California. In addition to physical transport of aerosol over distances of 100-1000 km, regional transport of aerosol precursors may lead to conditions conducive to large-scale nucleation events. Regional nucleation events have been reported in the East, Midwest, and in California. The events occurred in the morning soon after surface layers coupled with layers aloft, and the events generate ultrafine particles. In some cases, these nucleation events have been correlated with availability of sulfur dioxide and, therefore, may be sulfate formation events.     

A holistic approach towards assessment of severity of land degradation along the Great Wall in northern Shaanxi Province,China

The farming and grazing interlocked transitional zone along theGreat Wall in northern Shaanxi Province is particularly vulnerable to desertification due to its fragile ecosystem and intensive human activity. Studies reveal that desertification isboth a natural and anthropogenic process. Four desertificationindicators (vegetative cover, proportion of drifting sand area, desertification rate, and population pressure) were used to assess the severity of desertification in a GIS. The first threefactors were derived from multitemporal remote sensing and landinventory data. The last factor was calculated from census data.It was found that the overall severity of land degradation in thestudy area has worsened during the last two decades with severely, highly and moderately degraded land accounting for 84.2% of the total area in 1998. While the area affected by desertification has increased, the rate of desertification has also accelerated from 0.74 to 0.87%. Risk of land degradation in the study area has increased, on an average, by 155% since 1985. Incorporation of both natural and anthropogenic factors inthe analysis provides realistic assessment of risk of desertification.     

Effects of kinship or familiarity? Small thrips larvae experience lower predation risk only in groups of mixed-size siblings

In many species of insects, larvae are distributed in an aggregated fashion. As they may differ in size and size matters to predation risk, small larvae may be less likely to fall prey to predators when near large and therefore better-defended larvae. We hypothesize that the small larvae may profit even more when these large larvae are siblings. We tested this hypothesis on kinship-dependent survival in groups of larvae of the Western flower thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis) exposed to a predatory mite (Iphiseius degenerans). Our experiments showed that small larvae in sibling groups survive significantly better than in non-sibling groups, but only when such groups consisted of a mixture of small and large larvae. To test whether the survival effect we found is due to familiarity of thrips larvae growing up together (i.e. on one leaf), we also measured survival in sibling groups of larvae grown up on different leaves and in non-sibling groups of larvae grown up on the same leaf. These experiments showed an increased survival of small thrips larvae only in groups of sibling larvae from the same leaf. Non-sibling larvae did not show an increased survival when they come from the same leaf. Our results indicated that the increased survival in sibling groups was only partly due to the familiarity effect we tested. Growing up together did not return the same survival effect for non-siblings as it did for siblings. We conclude that growing up together is a necessary but not sufficient condition for discrimination in thrips larvae.     

Fungicides transport in runoff from vineyard plot and catchment: contribution of non-target areas

Surface runoff and erosion during the course of rainfall events are major processes of pesticides transport from agricultural land to aquatic ecosystem. These processes are generally evaluated either at the plot or the catchment scale. Here, we compared at both scales the transport and partitioning in runoff water of two widely used fungicides, i.e., kresoxim-methyl (KM) and cyazofamid (CY). The objective was to evaluate the relationship between fungicides runoff from the plot and from the vineyard catchment. The results show that seasonal exports for KM and CY at the catchment were larger than those obtained at the plot. This underlines that non-target areas within the catchment largely contribute to the overall load of runoff-associated fungicides. Estimations show that 85 and 62 % of the loads observed for KM and CY at the catchment outlet cannot be explained by the vineyard plots. However, the partitioning of KM and CY between three fractions, i.e., the suspended solids (>0.7 μm) and two dissolved fractions (i.e., between 0.22 and 0.7 µm and <0.22 µm) in runoff water was similar at both scales. KM was predominantly detected below 0.22 μm, whereas CY was mainly detected in the fraction between 0.22 and 0.7 μm. Although KM and CY have similar physicochemical properties and are expected to behave similarly, our results show that their partitioning between two fractions of the dissolved phase differs largely. It is concluded that combined observations of pesticide runoff at both the catchment and the plot scales enable to evaluate the sources areas of pesticide off-site transport.     

Decline of the Shasta Crayfish (Pacifastacus fortis Faxon) of Northeastern California

Native freshwater faunas in North America are declining, principally due to the combined effects of habitat degradation and introduced species. Relatively little attention has been directed to the decline of freshwater invertebrates, which may be even more threatened than fishes. This paper chronicles recent changes in the distribution and abundance of the Shasta crayfish ( Pacifastacus fortis Faxon), a state and federally endangered species endemic to the midreaches of the Pit River system in northeastern California. We made snorkeling and SCUBA surveys for crayfish in 1990 and 1991 and examined various records for historic distributions. Shasta crayfish have been extirpated from much of their historic range by water impoundment and diversion, and they are further threatened by two introduced crayfish species ( Pacifastacus leniusculus Dana and Orconectes virilis Hagen). By 1990 Shasta crayfish were restricted to seven isolated populations, mostly in the headwaters of spring-fed tributaries to the Pit river. P. leniusculus had become established throughout much of the study area in about 12 years. In one site P. leniusculus probably contributed to the precipitous decline of Shasta crayfish, from 2000–3000 in 1980 to about 370 (± 135) in 1991. O. virilis , which occurred in only the most disturbed parts of the system, showed little range expansion in 30 years and had been replaced in a large stretch of the Pit River by P. leniusculus. P. leniusculus occupied sites with a broad range of habitat variables (temperature, pH, turbidity, substrate size) partly or wholly overlapping measures of sites with the other two species. The decline of the Shasta crayfish, like the extinction of its closest relative P. nigrescens in the San Francisco Bay area earlier this century, reflects the decline of its habitat and probably pressure from the aggressive exotic P. leniusculus .     

First-trimester prenatal diagnosis of osteogenesis imperfecta type II by DNA analysis and sonography

Osteogenesis imperfecta type II was diagnosed prenatally by analysis of DNA obtained from chorionic villus sampling (CVS) performed at 12 weeks of gestation in a woman who previously had had an affected child. The father had been shown to be mosaic for a mutation in the gene (COL1A2) which encodes the α2(I) chain of type I collagen. An affected fetus was predicted by detection of the mutation in amplified chorionic villus genomic DNA. Ultrasound examination at 13 weeks 4 days demonstrated femoral deformity and virtual absence of calvarial mineralization. In pregnancies at risk for osteogenesis imperfecta type II, sonographic evidence of skeletal abnormalities may be evident by 13 weeks' gestation.