Sampling Schemes for Policy Analyses Using Computer Simulation Experiments

/ Evaluating the environmental and economic impacts of agricultural policies is not a simple task. A systematic approach to evaluation would include the effect of policy-dependent factors (such as tillage practices, crop rotations, and chemical use) as well as the effect of policy-independent covariates (such as weather, topography, and soil attributes) on response variables (such as amount of soil eroded or chemical leached into the groundwater). For comparison purposes, the effects of these input combinations on the response variable would have to be assessed under competing policy scenarios. Because the number of input combinations is high in most problems, and because policies to be evaluated are often not in use at the time of the study, practitioners have resorted to simulation experiments to generate data. However, generating data from simulation models is often costly and time consuming; thus, the number of input combinations in a study may be limiting even in simulation experiments. In this paper, we discuss the problem of designing computer simulation experiments that require generating data for just a fraction of the possible input combinations. We propose an approach that is based on subsampling the 1992 National Resources Inventory (NRI) points. We illustrate the procedure by assessing soil erosion in a situation where there are "observed" data [reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)] for comparison. Estimates for soil erosion obtained using the procedure we propose are in good agreement with NRCS reported values.KEY WORDS: Metamodel; National Resources Inventory; Nonpoint source pollution     

Higher education level teaching of (master’s) programmes in sustainable development: analysis of views on prerequisites and practices based on a worldwide survey

The concept of sustainable development (SD) has highly been debated since it was presented 25 years ago, with ‘hard science’ approaches on one side and more process-oriented approaches on the other side. Academic teaching in SD has emerged in response to this in very different contexts, partly mirroring this academic debate. Some master’s programmes in SD take a strong science approach, while other programmes focus on the process of implementing sustainability projects, sometimes connected with forms of action research and teaching. In this article, we identify diverse views on the concept of SD as well as views on most relevant modes of teaching. We discuss core competencies required for sustainability professionals in their working practices and we organise them in three main clusters: Know, Interact and Be (KIB). The article presents the results of a worldwide survey, which addresses these visions on the concept of SD, the capabilities needed for ‘sustainable development professionals’ and the teaching approach needed. The analysis is based on the responses of 54 lecturers and 287 students active in 34 SD master’s programmes on all continents. The results of this worldwide survey are discussed. We observe in practice some gaps between preferences and practice. Looking at what both lecturers and students see as essential topics to address, some topics get relatively less attention (like the population issue). The identified core competencies (KIB) are supported and all addressed in practice, while the ‘Be’ competencies receive relatively less attention. Suggested consequences for academic teaching include a further matching of programmes with perceived needs and bridging the gap between the experienced teaching approaches in practice with such identified needs.     

Mapping the niche space of soil microorganisms using taxonomy and traits

The biodiversity of microbial communities has important implications for the stability and functioning of ecosystem processes. Yet, very little is known about the environmental factors that define the microbial niche and how this influences the composition and activity of microbial communities. In this study, we derived niche parameters from physiological response curves that quantified microbial respiration for a diverse collection of soil bacteria and fungi along a soil moisture gradient. On average, soil microorganisms had relatively dry optima (0.3 MPa) and were capable of respiring under low water potentials (-2.0 MPa). Within their limits of activity, microorganisms exhibited a wide range of responses, suggesting that some taxa may be able to coexist by partitioning the moisture niche axis. For example, we identified dry-adapted generalists that tolerated a broad range of water potentials, along with wet-adapted specialists with metabolism restricted to less-negative water potentials. These contrasting ecological strategies had a phylogenetic signal at a coarse taxonomic level (phylum), suggesting that the moisture niche of soil microorganisms is highly conserved. In addition, variation in microbial responses along the moisture gradient was linked to the distribution of several functional traits. In particular, strains that were capable of producing biofilms had drier moisture optima and wider niche breadths. However, biofilm production appeared to come at a cost that was reflected in a prolonged lag time prior to exponential growth, suggesting that there is a trade-off associated with traits that allow microorganisms to contend with moisture stress. Together, we have identified functional groups of microorganisms that will help predict the structure and functioning of microbial communities under contrasting soil moisture regimes.     

Spike dives of juvenile southern bluefin tuna (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus maccoyii</Emphasis>): a navigational role?

Tunas make sharp descents and ascents around dawn and dusk called spike dives. We examine spike dives of 21 southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) implanted with archival tags in the Great Australian Bight. Using a new way to categorize this behavior, we show that spike dives are similar among all the fish in the study. The dive profiles are mirror images at dawn and dusk and are precisely timed with respect to sunrise and sunset. We analyze the possible reasons for spike dives, considering the timing of spike dives, the characteristic dive profile, and the tuna's magnetic habitat. In addition, we present anatomical evidence for elaboration of the pineal organ, which is light mediated and has been implicated in navigation in other vertebrates. The new evidence presented here leads us to suspect that spike dives represent a survey related to navigation.     

EFFECTS OF INCREASED DELTA EXPORTS ON SACRAMENTO VALLEY'S ECONOMY AND WATER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Exports from the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta are an important source of water for Central Valley and Southern California users. The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyze the effects increased exports to south of Delta users would have on the Sacramento Valley economy and water management if water were managed and reallocated for purely economic benefits, as if there were an ideal Sacramento Valley water market. Current Delta exports of 6,190 thousand acre‐feet per year were increased incrementally to maximum export pumping plant capacities. Initial increases in Delta exports did not increase regional water scarcity, but decreased surplus Delta flows. Further export increases raised agricultural scarcity. Urban users suffer increased scarcity only for exports exceeding 10,393 taf/yr. Expanding exports raises the economic value of expanding key facilities (such as Engle bright Lake and South Folsom Canal) and the opportunity costs of environmental requirements. The study illustrates the physical and economic capacity of the Sacramento Valley to further increase exports of water to drier parts of the state, even within significant environmental flow restrictions. More generally, the results illustrate the physical capacity for greater economic benefits and flexibility in water management within environmental constraints, given institutional capability to reoperate or reallocate water resources, as implied by water markets.     

Spatial methods for plot-based sampling of wildlife populations

Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.     

Habitat structure affects intraguild predation

Intraguild predation is thought to be ubiquitous in natural food webs. Yet, theory on intraguild predation predicts the intraguild prey to persist only under limited conditions. This gap between theory and empirical observations needs scrutiny. One reason might be that theory has focused on equilibrium dynamics and a limited set of species (usually three) that interact in well-mixed populations in unstructured habitats, and these assumptions will often not hold in natural systems. In this review, we focus on the effects of habitat structure on intraguild predation. Habitat structure could reduce encounter rates between predators and prey and could create refuges for prey. In both cases, habitat structure could reduce the strength of intraguild interactions, thereby facilitating species coexistence. A meta-analysis of studies on manipulation of habitat structure shows that intraguild prey indeed suffer less from intraguild predation in structured habitats. This was further confirmed by a meta-analysis in which studies on intraguild predation were classified according to habitat structure. Intraguild predation reduced densities of the intraguild prey significantly more in habitats with little structure than in habitats rich in structure. The effect of intraguild predation on the shared prey was negative, and not significantly affected by habitat structure. We conclude that habitat structure may increase persistence of the intraguild prey by decreasing the strength of the interaction between intraguild predator and intraguild prey.     

Uptake of cesium-137 and strontium-90 from contaminated soil by three plant species; application to phytoremediation

A field test was conducted to determine the ability of three plant species to extract 137Cs and 90Sr from contaminated soil. Redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus L.), Indian mustard [Brassica juncea (L.) Czern.], and tepary bean (Phaseolus acutifolius A. Gray) were planted in a series of spatially randomized cells in soil that was contaminated in the 1950s and 1960s. We examined the potential for phytoextraction of 90Sr and 137Cs by these three species. Concentration ratios (CR) for 137Cs for redroot pigweed, Indian mustard, and tepary bean were 2.58, 0.46, and 0.17, respectively. For 90Sr they were substantially higher: 6.5, 8.2, and 15.2, respectively. The greatest accumulation of both radionuclides was obtained with redroot pigweed, even though its CR for 90Sr was the lowest, because of its relatively large biomass. There was a linear relationship between the 137Cs concentration in plants and its concentration in soil only for redroot pigweed. Uptake of 90Sr exhibits no relationship to 90Sr concentrations in the soil. Estimates of time required for removal of 50% of the two contaminants, assuming two crops of redroot pigweed per year, are 7 yr for 90Sr and 18 yr for 137Cs.     

Cluster analysis of structural stage classes to map wildland fuels in a Madrean ecosystem

Geospatial information technology is changing the nature of fire mapping science and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system technology coupled with remotely sensed data provide powerful tools for mapping, assessing, and understanding the complex spatial phenomena of wildland fuels and fire hazard. The effectiveness of these technologies for fire management still depends on good baseline fuels data since techniques have yet to be developed to directly interrogate understory fuels with remotely sensed data. We couple field data collections with GIS, remote sensing, and hierarchical clustering to characterize and map the variability of wildland fuels within and across vegetation types. One hundred fifty six fuel plots were sampled in eight vegetation types ranging in elevation from 1150 to 2600 m surrounding a Madrean 'sky island' mountain range in the southwestern US. Fuel plots within individual vegetation types were divided into classes representing various stages of structural development with unique fuel load characteristics using a hierarchical clustering method. Two Landsat satellite images were then classified into vegetation/fuel classes using a hybrid unsupervised/supervised approach. A back-classification accuracy assessment, which uses the same pixels to test as used to train the classifier, produced an overall Kappa of 50% for the vegetation/fuels map. The map with fuel classes within vegetation type collapsed into single classes was verified with an independent dataset, yielding an overall Kappa of 80%.