Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

Understanding the paradox of rising consumption of alternative medicine in Kenya

Kenya has been expanding provision of healthcare services, taking health facilities closer to the people. While this would be expected to reduce dependence on complementary/alternative medicine, the consumption has continued to rise. This raises the question of whether alternative medicine is replacing conventional medicine or the two are jointly used to deal with diseases. Thus, this study sought to establish the relationship of the two remedies in household choice of healthcare and explored the determinants of such choices. The study used bivariate probit analysis on cross-sectional data. The study found that consumption of conventional medicine and alternative medicine was indeed interdependent. The two were, on average, substitutes although some groups still consumed them jointly. Gender, education and age of the household head, price of conventional medicine, distance to conventional medicine facilities and social networks were found to influence the decisions. Male household heads, price of conventional medicine and distance to conventional medical facilities had a positive relationship with the probability of using alternative remedies. Education and age of household head, and social capital were associated with lower likelihood of choosing alternative remedies. The results of this study have important ramifications for medical researchers, health policy makers and health insurance providers. For medical researchers, joint use of alternative and conventional medicines makes it important to understand the interactions between the two so as to avoid adverse reactions that may endanger the lives of patients. For the health policy makers, because patients have different preferences for healthcare services, it is useful to provide alternative medicine and conventional medicine in a joint and integrated health system for patients’ freedom of choice, and for safety and efficacy of treatment. Health insurance providers, on their part, need to explore the possibilities and modalities for bringing users of alternative medicine, and joint users of alternative and conventional medicines under their cover.     

Ecology, management and monitoring of grey dunes in Flanders

Grey dunes are a priority habitat type of the European Union Habitats Directive and demand special attention for conservation and management. Knowledge of the ecology of coastal grey dunes can contribute to this policy. Dune grassland succession is initiated by fixation and driven by the complex of soil formation (humus accumulation) and vegetation development. Leaching and mobilization of CaCO₃. which are important in nutrient dynamics, complicate the picture. At present, grass- and scrub encroachment greatly overrules these fine scaled soil processes and causes substantial loss of regional biodiversity. Belgium has an international responsibility in grey dune conservation because of the limited range of its characteristic vegetation, flora and fauna. As biomass removal seems essential in grassland preservation, grazing is an important management tool. Evaluation of management measures focuses on biodiversity measurements on the levels of landscape, community and species.     

Behaviorally mediated spatial and temporal refuges from a cleptoparasite,Argochrysis armilla (Hymenoptera: Chrysididae), attacking a ground-nesting wasp,Ammophila dysmica (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae)

Summary It has been suggested that parasite pressure favors the evolution of sociality within the Hymenoptera. I analyzed the impact of a chrysidid nest parasite, Argochrysis armilla, on its host, the solitary ground-nesting wasp, Ammophila dysmica, to assess the role of parasitism in favoring two steps towards sociality: aggregated nesting and delayed nest provisioning. The foraging strategy of Argochrysis armilla involves discovering host nests during excavation, learning the locations of discovered nest, and returning to oviposit in nests during nest provisioning; I therefore assessed the influence of host behavior on (1) parasite discovery of nests and (2) parasite oviposition in nests. Significantly fewer parasites discovered host nests that were excavated during the early morning and late afternoon, due to partial asynchrony of host and parasite activity. Nests excavated in areas of low nest density were also less likely to be discovered; use of low density nest sites increased during periods of high parasite activity. Due to a rapidly decelerating rate of parasite recruitment to nests under excavation, the duration of nest digging had only a limited influence on nest discovery by parasites. The probability of parasite oviposition in a host nest was determined by the number of parasites discovering the nest during excavation and by the time between nest excavation and provisioning; delaying nest provisioning reduced the risk of parasite oviposition. Delayed provisionings primarily appeared to be a result of the stochastic process of hunting and prey encounter. The number of provisions placed in a nest (one vs two) had no effect on the probability of nest parasitism. Spatial patterns of parasitism were directly density dependent in 1984 and density independent in 1986. In this system parasite pressure acts against the formation of nesting aggregations and in favor of delayed nest provisioning. The dependence of these results on species-specific aspects of the parasite's foraging strategy and the host's defensive strategy suggests, however, that different parasite species may generate qualitatively different selection pressures, potentially contributing to the diversity of nesting behavior in the Hymenoptera.     

Generation pattern of sulfur containing gases from anaerobically digested sludge cakes.

Eleven dewatered sludge cakes collected from anaerobic digesters at different treatment plants were evaluated for the amount, type, and pattern of odorous gas production. All but one of the sludge cakes were from mesophilic anaerobic digesters. One was from a thermophilic digester. The pattern and quantities of sulfur gases were found to be unique for each of the samples with regard to the products produced, magnitude, and subsequent decline. The main odor-causing chemicals were volatile sulfur compounds, which included hydrogen sulfide, methanethiol, and dimethyl sulfide. Volatile sulfur compound production peaked in 3 to 8 days and then declined. The decline was a result of conversion of organic sulfur compounds to sulfide. In one side-by-side test, a high-solids centrifuge cake generated more odorous compounds than the low-solids centrifuge cake. The data show that anaerobic digestion does not eliminate the odor potential of anaerobically digested dewatered cakes.