Optimizing carbon sequestration in commercial forests by integrating carbon management objectives in wood supply modeling

This paper provides a methodology for generating forest management plans, which explicitly maximize carbon (C) sequestration at the forest-landscape level. This paper takes advantage of concepts first presented in a paper by Meng et al. (2003; Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 8:371–403) by integrating C-sequestration objective functions in existing wood supply models. Carbon-stock calculations performed in Woodstock^TM (RemSoft Inc.) are based on C yields generated from volume table data obtained from local Forest Development Survey plots and a series of wood volume-to-C content conversion factors specified in von Mirbach (2000). The approach is used to investigate the impact of three demonstration forest-management scenarios on the C budget in a 110,000 ha forest in south-central New Brunswick, Canada. Explicit demonstration scenarios addressed include (1) maximizing timber extraction either by clearcut or selection harvesting for greatest revenue generation, (2) maximizing total C storage in the forest landscape and in wood products generated from harvesting, and (3) maximizing C storage together with revenue generation. The level of clearcut harvesting was greatest for scenario 1 (≥15 × 10⁴ m³ of wood and ≥943 ha of land per harvesting period), and least for scenario 2 (=0 m³ per harvesting period) where selection harvesting dominated. Because softwood saw logs were worth more than pulpwood ($60 m⁻³ vs. $40 m⁻³) and were strategic to the long-term storage of C, the production of softwood saw logs exceeded the production of pulpwood in all scenarios. Selection harvesting was generally the preferred harvesting method across scenarios. Only in scenario 1 did levels of clearcut harvesting occasionally exceed those of selection harvesting, mainly in the removal of old, dilapidated stands early in the simulation (i.e., during periods 1 through 3). Scenario 2 provided the greatest total C-storage increase over 80 years (i.e., 14 × 10⁶ Mg C, or roughly 264 Mg ha⁻¹) at a cost of $111 per Mg C due to lost revenues. Scenarios 3 and 1 produced reduced storage rates of roughly 9 × 10⁶ Mg C and 3 × 10⁶ Mg C, respectively; about 64% and 22% of the total, 80-year C storage calculated in scenario 2. The bulk of the C in scenario 2 was stored in the forest, amounting to about 76% of the total C sequestered.     

Field study of TCE diffusion profiles below DNAPL to assess aquitard integrity

An area where a free-product accumulation of trichloroethylene (TCE) dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) occurs at the bottom of a 10-m-thick surficial sand aquifer was studied to determine the integrity of the underlying, 20-m-thick, clayey silt aquitard formed of glaciolacustrine sediment. TCE concentration-versus-depth profiles determined from aquitard cores collected at five locations indicated penetration of detectable TCE 2.5 to 3.0 m into the aquitard. Two of the profiles show persistent DNAPL at the aquitard interface, while two others indicate that DNAPL, present initially, was completely dissolved away producing concentration declines at the aquitard interface. The fifth profile suggests shallow DNAPL penetration (<0.5 m) into the aquitard, however, this penetration, which was likely caused by cross-contamination during core collection or cone penetrometry (CPT) of the aquitard interface, did not increase the maximum depth of TCE penetration. Combining the field profiles with one-dimensional model simulations, downward migration of the aqueous TCE front, defined as the EPA MCL of 5 microg/l, which was below the analytical detection limit, was projected to a distance between 4 and 5 m below the top of the aquitard. Using a single set of estimated aquitard parameter values, simulations of aqueous TCE migration into the aquitard provided a good fit to four of the field profiles with a migration time of 35 to 45 years, consistent with the history of TCE use at the site. These simulations indicate aqueous TCE migration is diffusion-dominated with only small advective influence by the downward groundwater velocity of 2 to 3 cm/year or less in the aquitard due to pumping of the underlying aquifer to supply water to the facility in the past 50 years. The applicability of the parameter values was confirmed by in situ diffusion experiments of 1-year duration, in which stainless steel cylinders containing DNAPL were inserted into the aquitard. The diffusion-dominated nature of the profiles indicates that the aquitard provides long-term protection of the underlying aquifer from contamination from this DNAPL zone. Simulations of long-term migration of the TCE solute front indicate breakthrough to the lower aquifer at 1200 years for the no advection scenario and at 500 years if the strong downward hydraulic gradient persists. However, even after breakthrough, the mass flux through the aquitard to the underlying aquifer remains relatively low, and when considered in terms of potential impacts to pumping wells, concentrations are not expected to increase significantly above present-day MCLs. The use of contaminant profiles of different time and distance scales, in addition to hydraulic data, dramatically improves the ability to assess aquitard integrity, and provides improved transport parameter values for estimating contaminant arrival times and fluxes. The apparent lack of deep preferential pathways for TCE migration, such as open fractures, is probably due to the softness of the silty aquitard deposit and minimal physical or chemical weathering of the aquitard provides long-term protection of the underlying aquifer from contamination from this DNAPL zone. Simulations of long-term migration of the TCE solute front indicate breakthrough to the lower aquifer at 1200 years for the no advection scenario and at 500 years if the strong downward hydraulic gradient persists. However, even after the breakthrough, the mass flux through the aquitard to the underlying aquifer remains relatively low, and when considered in terms of potential impacts to pumping wells , concentrations are not expected to increase significantly above present-day MCLs. The use of contaminant profiles of different time and distance scales, in addition to hydraulic data, dramatically improves the ability to assess aquitard integrity, and provides improved transport parameter values for estimating contaminant arrival times and fluxes. The apparent lack of deep preferential pathways for TCE migration, such as open fractures, is probably due to the softness of the silty aquitard deposit and minimal physical or chemical weathering of the aquitard.     

Correlating emissions with time and temperature to predict worst-case emissions from open liquid area sources

The two primary factors influencing ambient air pollutant concentrations are emission rate and dispersion rate. Gaussian dispersion modeling studies for odors, and often other air pollutants, vary dispersion rates using hourly meteorological data. However, emission rates are typically held constant, based on one measured value. Using constant emission rates can be especially inaccurate for open liquid area sources, like wastewater treatment plant units, which have greater emissions during warmer weather, when volatilization and biological activity increase. If emission rates for a wastewater odor study are measured on a cooler day and input directly into a dispersion model as constant values, odor impact will likely be underestimated. Unfortunately, because of project schedules, not all emissions sampling from open liquid area sources can be conducted under worst-case summertime conditions. To address this problem, this paper presents a method of varying emission rates based on temperature and time of the day to predict worst-case emissions. Emissions are varied as a linear function of temperature, according to Henry's law, and a tenth order polynomial function of time. Equation coefficients are developed for a specific area source using concentration and temperature measurements, captured over a multiday period using a data-logging monitor. As a test case, time/temperature concentration correlation coefficients were estimated from field measurements of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) at the Rowlett Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant in Garland, TX. The correlations were then used to scale a flux chamber emission rate measurement according to hourly readings of time and temperature, to create an hourly emission rate file for input to the dispersion model ISCST3. ISCST3 was then used to predict hourly atmospheric concentrations of H2S. With emission rates varying hourly, ISCST3 predicted 384 acres of odor impact, compared with 103 acres for constant emissions. Because field sampling had been conducted on relatively cool days (85-90 degrees F), the constant emission rate underestimated odor impact significantly (by 73%).     

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002–2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

ABSTRACT

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10– 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5– 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC – Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160–800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70–1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3–$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million–$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90–2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180–580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0–1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960–1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: ?280,350–963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.

Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.     

Which visibility indicators best represent a population’s preference for a level of visual air quality?

Several studies have been carried out over the past 20 or so years to assess the level of visual air quality that is judged to be acceptable in urban settings. Groups of individuals were shown slides or computer-projected scenes under a variety of haze conditions and asked to judge whether each image represented acceptable visual air quality. The goal was to assess the level of haziness found to be acceptable for purposes of setting an urban visibility regulatory standard. More recently, similar studies were carried out in Beijing, China, and the more pristine Grand Canyon National Park and Great Gulf Wilderness. The studies clearly showed that when preference ratings were compared to measures of atmospheric haze such as atmospheric extinction, visual range, or deciview (dv), there was not a single indicator that represented acceptable levels of visual air quality for the varied urban or more remote settings. For instance, using a Washington, D.C., setting, 50% of the observers rated the landscape feature as not having acceptable visual air quality at an extinction of 0.19 km^?1 (21 km visual range, 29 dv), while the 50% acceptability point for a Denver, Colorado, setting was 0.075 km^?1 (52 km visual range, 20 dv) and for the Grand Canyon it was 0.023 km^?1 (170 km visual range, 7 dv). Over the past three or four decades, many scene-specific visibility indices have been put forth as potential indicators of visibility levels as perceived by human observers. They include, but are not limited to, color and achromatic contrast of single landscape features, average and equivalent contrast of the entire image, edge detection algorithms such as the Sobel index, and just-noticeable difference or change indexes. This paper explores various scene-specific visual air quality indices and examines their applicability for use in quantifying visibility preference levels and judgments of visual air quality.

Implications: Visibility acceptability studies clearly show that visibility become more unacceptable as haze increases. However, there are large variations in the preference levels for different scenes when universal haze indicators, such as atmospheric extinction, are used. This variability is significantly reduced when the sky–landscape contrast of the more distant landscape features in the observed scene is used. Analysis suggest that about 50% of individuals would find the visibility unacceptable if at any time the more distant landscape features nearly disappear, that is, they are at the visual range. This common metric could form the basis for setting an urban visibility standard.     

Monitoring PAHs in the Brisbane River and Moreton Bay, Australia, using semipermeable membrane devices and EROD activity in yellowfin bream, Acanthopagrus australis

Two water quality monitoring strategies designed to sample hydrophobic organic contaminants have been applied and evaluated across an expected concentration gradient in PAHs in the Moreton region. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) that sequester contaminants via passive diffusion across a membrane were used to evaluate the concentration of PAHs at four and five sites in spring and summer 2001/2002, respectively. In addition, induction of hepatic cytochrome P4501, EROD activity, in yellowfin bream, Acanthopagrus australis, captured in the vicinity of SPMD sampling sites following deployment in summer was used as a biomarker of exposure to PAHs and related chemicals. SPMDs identified a clear and reproducible gradient in PAH contamination with levels increasing from east to west in Moreton Bay and upstream in the Brisbane River. The highest PAH concentrations expressed as B(a)P-toxicity equivalents (TEQs) were found in urban areas, which were also furthest upstream and experienced the least flushing. Cytochrome P4501 induction in A. australis was similar at all sites. The absence of clear trends in EROD activity may be attributable to factors not measured in this study or variable residency time of A. australis in contaminated areas. It is also possible that fish in the Moreton region are displaying enzymatic adaptation, which has been reported previously for fish subjected to chronic exposure to organic contaminants. These potential interferences complicate interpretation of EROD activity from feral biota. It is, therefore, suggested that future monitoring combine the two methods by applying passive sampler extracts to in vitro EROD assays.