Multi-model analysis of tree competition along environmental gradients in southern New England forests.

Robust predictions of competitive interactions among canopy trees and variation in tree growth along environmental gradients represent key challenges for the management of mixed-species, uneven-aged forests. We analyzed the effects of competition on tree growth along environmental gradients for eight of the most common tree species in southern New England and southeastern New York using forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data, information theoretic decision criteria, and multi-model inference to evaluate models. The suite of models estimated growth of individual trees as a species-specific function of average potential diameter growth, tree diameter at breast height, local environmental conditions, and crowding by neighboring trees. We used ordination based on the relative basal area of species to generate a measure of site conditions in each plot. Two ordination axes were consistent with variation in species abundance along moisture and fertility gradients. Estimated potential growth varied along at least one of these axes for six of the eight species; peak relative abundance of less shade-tolerant species was in all cases displaced away from sites where they showed maximum potential growth. Our crowding functions estimate the strength of competitive effects of neighbors; only one species showed support for the hypothesis that all species of competitors have equivalent effects on growth. The relative weight of evidence (Akaike weights) for the best models varied from a low of 0.207 for Fraxinus americana to 0.747 for Quercus rubra. In such cases, model averaging provides a more robust platform for prediction than that based solely on the best model. We show that predictions based on the selected best models dramatically overestimated differences between species relative to predictions based on the averaged set of models.     

Integrating economic costs into the analysis of flexible conservation management strategies.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.     

Urbanization affects stream ecosystem function by altering hydrology, chemistry, and biotic richness.

Catchment urbanization can alter physical, chemical, and biological attributes of stream ecosystems. In particular, changes in land use may affect the dynamics of organic matter decomposition, a measure of ecosystem function. We examined leaf-litter decomposition in 18 tributaries of the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. Land use in all 18 catchments ranged from 0% to 93% urban which translated to 0% to 66% total impervious area (TIA). Using a litter-bag technique, we measured mass loss, fungal biomass, and macroinvertebrate biomass for two leaf species (red maple [Acer rubrum] and sweetgum [Liquidambar styraciflua]). Rates of litter mass loss, which ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 per day for red maple and 0.006 to 0.018 per day for sweetgum, increased with impervious catchment area to levels of approximately 30-40% TIA and then decreased as impervious catchment area exceeded 40% TIA. Fungal biomass was also highest in streams draining catchments with intermediate levels of TIA. Macroinvertebrate biomass ranged from 17 to 354 mg/bag for red maple and from 15 to 399 mg/bag for sweetgum. Snail biomass and snail and total invertebrate richness were strongly related to breakdown rates among streams regardless of leaf species. Land-use and physical, chemical, and biological variables were highly intercorrelated. Principal-components analysis was therefore used to reduce the variables into several orthogonal axes. Using stepwise regression, we found that flow regime, snail biomass, snail and total invertebrate richness, and metal and nutrient content (which varied in a nonlinear manner with impervious surface area) were likely factors affecting litter breakdown rates in these streams.     

Distribution and ecology of leptocephali of the congrid eel, Ariosoma scheelei, around Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

A survey for leptocephali around Sulawesi Island in the central Indonesian Seas during May 2001 found that the leptocephali of the congrid eel, Ariosoma scheelei, were present in all seven areas that were sampled. A total of 551 leptocephali (22–166 mm TL) were collected, and A. scheelei was by far the most abundant species of leptocephali collected during the survey. The wide range of sizes in most areas indicated that spawning had occurred during a period of several months in many different areas, although the exact spawning locations were not determined. The larger size classes were more abundant in all areas except in Tomini Bay on the northeast side of Sulawesi Island. The highest catch rates were observed at the eastern edge of the Java Sea and to the north in the Celebes Sea near Makassar Strait. Premetamorphic leptocephali were also collected in surface samples at 11 stations (N=62), but metamorphosing leptocephali (N=86) were only caught in IKMT tows that fished from the surface to about 200 m. Metamorphosing leptocephali were collected primarily at two stations in the Java Sea and Makassar Strait where a surface layer of lower-salinity water was detected. Their total lengths (105.3–153.3 mm) and the largest premetamorphic individuals suggested that this species can reach maximum sizes of about 165 mm before beginning to metamorphose. It is hypothesized that this species may be abundant in the Indonesian Seas region and that it has ecological traits such as large size at recruitment and a small size at reproduction that have made it successful in many regions of the Indo-Pacific.     

Habitat edge, land management, and rates of brood parasitism in tallgrass prairie.

Bird populations in North America's grasslands have declined sharply in recent decades. These declines are traceable, in large part, to habitat loss, but management of tallgrass prairie also has an impact. An indirect source of decline potentially associated with management is brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which has had substantial negative impacts on many passerine hosts. Using a novel application of regression trees, we analyzed an extensive five-year set of nest data to test how management of tallgrass prairie affected rates of brood parasitism. We examined seven landscape features that may have been associated with parasitism: presence of edge, burning, or grazing, and distance of the nest from woody vegetation, water, roads, or fences. All five grassland passerines that we included in the analyses exhibited evidence of an edge effect: the Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Henslow's Sparrow (A. henslowii), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna). The edge was represented by narrow strips of woody vegetation occurring along roadsides cut through tallgrass prairie. The sparrows avoided nesting along these woody edges, whereas the other three species experienced significantly higher (1.9-5.3x) rates of parasitism along edges than in prairie. The edge effect could be related directly to increase in parasitism rate with decreased distance from woody vegetation. After accounting for edge effect in these three species, we found evidence for significantly higher (2.5-10.5x) rates of parasitism in grazed plots, particularly those burned in spring to increase forage, than in undisturbed prairie. Regression tree analysis proved to be an important tool for hierarchically parsing various landscape features that affect parasitism rates. We conclude that, on the Great Plains, rates of brood parasitism are strongly associated with relatively recent road cuts, in that edge effects manifest themselves through the presence of trees, a novel habitat component in much of the tallgrass prairie. Grazing is also a key associate of increased parasitism. Areas managed with prescribed fire, used frequently to increase forage for grazing cattle, may experience higher rates of brood parasitism. Regardless, removing trees and shrubs along roadsides and refraining from planting them along new roads may benefit grassland birds.     

Interactions between wave action and grazing control the distribution of intertidal macroalgae

Canopy-forming macroalgae are key species on temperate rocky shores. However, there is a lack of understanding of how the relative balance of physical and biological factors controls the establishment and persistence of intertidal macroalgae. Here we present an integrated study of the relative importance of wave-induced forces and grazing for the recruitment and survival of the canopy-forming intertidal macroalgae Fucus vesiculosus and F. spiralis. A set of overtopped breakwaters provided a nearly unconfounded gradient in wave exposure between seaward and landward sides. A biomechanical analysis was performed based on empirical measurements of maximum drag forces in breaking waves, a model of long-term maximum wave height, and the breaking stress of Fucus spp. The estimated maximum flow speed (7-8 m/s) on the seaward side of the breakwaters was predicted to completely dislodge or prune Fucus spp. larger than approximately 10 cm, while dislodgment was highly unlikely on the landward side for all sizes. Experimental transplantation of Fucus spp. supported the biomechanical analysis but also suggested that mechanical abrasion may further limit survival in wave-exposed locations. Experimental removal of the limpet Patella vulgata, which was the principal grazer at this site, resulted in recruitment of Fucus spp. on the seaward side. We present a model of limpet grazing that indicates that limpet densities >5-20 individuals/m2 provide a proximate mechanism preventing establishment of Fucus spp., whereas wave action >2 m/s reduces persistence through dislodgment and battering. In a conceptual model we further propose that recruitment and survival of juvenile Fucus spp. are controlled indirectly by wave exposure through higher limpet densities at exposed locations. This model predicts that climate change, and in particular an increased frequency of storm events in the northeast Atlantic, will restrict fucoids to more sheltered locations.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

A convective wind resource model for Solar Vortex power generation

ABSTRACT

Climate change has increased the need for clean, nonpolluting energy sources to decrease dependence on fossil fuels. Alternative energy sources, mainly solar and horizontal wind, have been the primary focus for producing clean energy. New technologies are being developed, such as the Solar Vortex (SoV), which was developed at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and relies on a vertical wind resource to generate power. The National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) has resource models representing solar and horizontal wind resources across the 48 United States. This research developed a vertical wind resource model that is comparable in resolution to NREL’s solar and horizontal wind resource models and uses the model for estimating power output for the SoV. This model complements NREL’s existing resource models and supports the deployment of an additional clean energy generation technology. The model was applied to Mesa, Arizona to find feasible sites for a small-scale vertical wind farm.