A Short Survey Instrument to Segment Populations According to Their Attitudes Toward Science. Scale Development,Optimization and Assessment

ABSTRACT

Surveys play a key role in researching public perceptions of and attitudes toward science. Accordingly, there is a breadth of often-used survey instruments available which have also been adopted for segmentation analyses. Even though many of these segmentation solutions are similar in their aims, they often include a large numbers of variables, making it more difficult for other researchers to build on these solutions, as survey time is scarce. Therefore, we demonstrate how a large number of variables that were used for a comprehensive segmentation analysis can be reduced considerably without losing too much information. We develop and test a short survey instrument to segment populations according to their attitudes toward science. Results show that segmentation results can be replicated with over 90% accuracy by reducing the instrument from 20 to 10 variables. This reduction does not significantly affect the predictive power of segment attribution on three dependent variables, which suggests that many segmentation analyses could be similarly optimized, helping researchers save survey time and standardize segmentation analyses more.     

Modeling Water Quantity and Sulfate Concentrations in the Devils Lake Watershed Using Coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2

Devils Lake is an endorheic lake in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota. During the last two decades, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 m, causing floods that have cost more than 1 billion USD in mitigation measures. Another increase of approximately 1.5 m in the lake water level would cause spillage into the Sheyenne River. To alleviate this potentially catastrophic spillage, two artificial outlets were constructed. However, the artificial drainage of water into the Sheyenne River raises water quality concerns because the Devils Lake water contains significantly higher concentrations of dissolved solids, particularly sulfate. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was coupled with the CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to simulate both water balance and sulfate concentrations in the lake. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily flow in tributaries with E_NS > 0.5 and |PBIAS| < 25%, and reproduced the lake water level with a root mean square error of 0.35 m for the study period from 1995 to 2014. The water temperature and sulfate concentrations simulated by CE‐QUAL‐W2 for the lake are in general agreement with the field observations. The model results show that the operation of the two outlets since August 2005 has lowered the lake level by 0.70 m. Furthermore, the models show pumping water from the two outlets raises sulfate concentrations in the Sheyenne River from ~100 to >500 mg/L. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

关于欧盟植物保护品对鸟类和哺乳动物的风险评估的反思：过去、现在和未来

植物保护品在农作物上的使用会导致鸟类和哺乳动物接触有毒化学物质。在欧盟,关于此类暴露的风险评估均以当前(2009)欧洲食品安全局(EFSA)颁布的指导性文件为依据,与之前的版本相比,该文件在理论风险评估的可实现性方面有所提高(SANCO/4145/2000)。自从7年前实施2009 EFSA 指导性文件以来,基于此已经对众多植物保护品的毒性进行了成功地评估。然而,在今后的修订版本中仍然存在需要改进的重要方面。这篇焦点文章讨论了目前方案的风险评估经验,包括输入参数的保守水平和监管当局的解释以及如何在不远的将来对指导性文件进行修订提出建议。明确了推进指导文件的几方面建议,例如与生态相关的鸟类和哺乳动物生殖端点的推导和情境风险评估中建模方法的使用。在完善现有数据库方面,本文也有所强调,包括校对全欧洲相关焦点物种和扩大食物残留数据库。为了能够在将来形成一个真实可用的指导性文件,强烈建议在产业、监管和欧洲食品安全局等部门之间进行开放和建设性的沟通和交流。这样的合作也将鼓励会员国之间的融合,从而减轻产业和监管机构工作负荷。
精选自Amy C. Brooks, Mike Fryer, Alan Lawrence, Juan Pascual, Rachel Sharp. Reflections on bird and mammal risk assessment for plant protection products in the European Union: past, present and future. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 565–575, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3719
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3719/full
     

Beyond Counting Climate Consensus

Several studies have been using quantified consensus within climate science as an argument to foster climate policy. Recent efforts to communicate such scientific consensus attained a high public profile but it is doubtful if they can be regarded successful. We argue that repeated efforts to shore up the scientific consensus on minimalist claims such as “humans cause global warming” are distractions from more urgent matters of knowledge, values, policy framing and public engagement. Such efforts to force policy progress through communicating scientific consensus misunderstand the relationship between scientific knowledge, publics and policymakers. More important is to focus on genuinely controversial issues within climate policy debates where expertise might play a facilitating role. Mobilizing expertise in policy debates calls for judgment, context and attention to diversity, rather than deferring to formal quantifications of narrowly scientific claims.     

The application of potassium ferrate for sewage treatment

The comparative performance of potassium ferrate(VI), ferric sulphate and aluminium sulphate for the removal of turbidity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), colour (as Vis400-abs) and bacteria in sewage treatment was evaluated. For coagulation and disinfection of sewage, potassium ferrate(VI) can remove more organic contaminants, COD and bacteria in comparison with the other two coagulants for the same doses used. Also, potassium ferrate(VI) produces less sludge volume and removes more contaminants, which should make subsequent sludge treatment easier.     

10th Anniversary lecture: looking to the future of POPs

In August, around 850 delegates from 46 countries gathered in Birmingham (UK) for the 28th International Symposium on Halogenated Persistent Organic Pollutants ('Dioxin 2008', for short). Inaugurated in Rome in 1980, this has grown to become the main research symposium worldwide for research in the field of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This was the first time the meeting had been held in the UK, the venue being Birmingham's world-class International Convention Centre.     

Quality control and quality assurance for particle size distribution measurements at an urban monitoring station in Augsburg, Germany

Long-term observations of atmospheric constituents such as aerosol particles are increasingly needed to assess their impact on climate and human health. In contrast to particle mass concentration (MC), there are currently no standardized quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) procedures for the measurement of particle size distribution (PSD). This study describes some fundamental QC and QA procedures associated with the collection and evaluation of a 2 year dataset between 2005 and 2006 at an urban background monitoring site in Augsburg, Germany. The considered parametres include ambient PSD between 3 nm and 10 microm (merged from a twin differential mobility and an aerodynamic particle sizer, TDMPS and APS, respectively) as well as total particle number (TNC), length (LC) and MC determined by independent instruments. The hourly 1st and 0th moment of PSD showed good correlations with the independently measured LC (R(2) = 0.86) and TNC (R(2) = 0.79), respectively, the deviation for LC with 4% and for TNC with 22% being rather small. The volume concentration (3rd moment) of hourly measured PSD and the resultant MC (when assuming a realistic apparent density of 1.5 g cm(-3)) correlated well with the independently measured MC of PM(2.5) or PM(10) (R(2) > 0.86) and showed only small deviation from PM(2.5) (1%) or PM(10) (5%), respectively. The study demonstrates that the described QC and QA measures define both a high accuracy of the PSD measurements and their long-term comparability against data obtained in similar measurement programmes.     

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5–13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection.