Weighing the evidence: prospects for evidence-based policy-making

Evidence-based policy (EBP) is currently one of the "big ideas" in policy circles. From its origins in the medical community, EBP is now being applied to other policy domains including environment. But will it really ensure that the public policy grease gets to the environmental squeak? And what are the implications for scientists themselves?     

How well should laboratories perform in proficiency tests

The long-term performance of laboratories is examined using results from three proficiency testing programmes in the water and environmental monitoring sector. A medium term proficiency test pass rate of greater than approximately 75% is suggested as a minimum target for routine analysis to demonstrate fitness for purpose. This pass rate is proposed as a practical yardstick to be used by QA managers and accreditation bodies. This recommendation is contingent on a laboratory's continued and largely uninterrupted participation in a PT programme.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON RIVERS: CONSEQUENCES FOR LONG TERM WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Associations between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and temporal variability in flow and 12 water quality variables were assessed at 77 river sites throughout New Zealand over a 13‐year period (1989 through 2001). Trends in water quality were determined for the same period. All 13 variables showed statistically significant linear regression relationships with values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The strongest relationships were for water temperature (mean R²= 0.20), dissolved reactive phosphorus (0.18), and oxidized nitrogen (0.17). The association with SOI varied by climate region. The observed patterns were generally consistent with known ENSO effects on New Zealand rainfall and air temperature. Trends in water quality variables for the periods 1989 through 1993, 1994 through 1998, and 1989 through 1998 were reasonably consistent with trends in SOI, even when the influence of river flow was removed from the data. This suggests that SOI effects on water quality are not necessarily a direct consequence of changes in flow associated with rainfall variation. In addition, both Baseline (32 upstream) and Impact (45 downstream) sites showed similar trends, indicating that changes in management were not directly responsible. We conclude that interpretation of long term water quality datasets in rivers requires that climate variability be fully acknowledged and dealt with explicitly in trend analyses.     

Adapting to Climate Change in Africa

The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.     

大象将要回到灭绝的老路吗?

尽管有关部门和人员信誓旦旦要采取预防措施，且各种安全保障也被确立，但无论从哪个角度看，2002年11月12日联合濒危动植物种国际贸易公约缔约国大会允许非洲几个国家出售象牙库存的决定必将对国际象牙贸易起到推波助澜的作用，而正是象牙贸易在20世纪80年代使大象走上了灭绝之路。     

Heavy metals in soils and crops in Southeast Asia

In a reconnaissance soil geochemical and plant survey undertaken to study the heavy metal uptake by major food crops in Malaysia, 241 soils were analysed for cation exchange capacity (CEC), organic carbon (C), pH, electrical conductivity (EC) and available phosphorus (P) using appropriate procedures. These soils were also analysed for arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) using aqua regia digestion, together with 180 plant samples using nitric acid digestion. Regression analysis between the edible plant part and aqua regia soluble soil As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations sampled throughout Peninsular Malaysia, indicated a positive relationship for Pb in all the plants sampled in the survey (R ² = 0.195, p < 0.001), for Ni in corn (R ² = 0.649, p < 0.005), for Cu in chilli (R ² = 0.344, p < 0.010) and for Zn in chilli (R ² = 0.501, p < 0.001). Principal component analysis of the soil data suggested that concentrations of Co, Ni, Pb and Zn were strongly correlated with concentrations of Al and Fe, which is suggestive of evidence of background variations due to changes in soil mineralogy. Thus the evidence for widespread contamination of soils by these elements through agricultural activities is not strong. Chromium was correlated with soil pH and EC, Na, S, and Ca while Hg was not correlated with any of these components, suggesting diffuse pollution by aerial deposition. However As, Cd, Cu were strongly associated with organic matter and available and aqua regia soluble soil P, which we attribute to inputs in agricultural fertilisers and soil organic amendments (e.g. manures, composts).     

Biology of the basket star <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gorgonocephalus caputmedusae</Emphasis> (L.)

Ophiurid basket stars belonging to the family Gorgonocephalidae are distributed from the Arctic to the Antarctic and from the shallow subtidal to the deep sea, but their biology remains poorly known. In situ observations at the mouth of the Oslofjord by a remotely operated vehicle showed that Gorgonocephalus caputmedusae had a patchy distribution at 85 to 120 m water depth and frequently occurred in association with the gorgonian Paramuricea placomus and the coral Lophelia pertusa. Morphological and histological studies show that G. caputmedusae is well adapted to capture macroplanktonic prey. Histological examination of the arms revealed the presence of a thick layer of dermal mutable connective tissue which is probably an energy-efficient way to maintain its feeding posture against the current. This layer is connected to the nerve cord suggesting that the passive mechanical properties (stiffness) is controlled by the nervous system. In the distal parts of the arms, each segment has a pair of sticky tube feet and a sophisticated system of spines and hooks, which are connected to muscles and collagenous tendons. In combination, these features were shown, in an experimental flume study, to be used for capturing the locally abundant krill species Meganyctiphanes norvegica. This is the first documentation of G. caputmedusae of this kind.     

销售的可持续性

我们所看到的许多资料的研究显示,消费者通常对可持续思想是支持的和要求保证制造商是负责任的.     

RIVPACS models for predicting the expected macroinvertebrate fauna and assessing the ecological quality of rivers

The European Union Water Framework Directive recognises the need for and value of biological monitoring. This paper reviews the modelling approach known as River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS for assessing the ecological quality of river sites using macroinvertebrate sampling. The RIVPACS philosophy is to develop statistical relationships between the fauna and the environmental characteristics of a large set of high quality reference sites which can be used to predict the macroinvertebrate fauna to be expected at any site in the absence of pollution or other environmental stress. The observed fauna at new test sites can then be compared with their site-specific expected fauna to derive indices of ecological quality. All methodological decisions in any such model development have implications for the reliability, precision and robustness of any resulting indices for assessing the ecological quality and ecological grade (‘status’) of individual river stretches. The choice of reference sites and environmental predictor variables, the site classification and discrimination methods, the estimation of the expected fauna, and indices for comparing the agreement, or lack of it, between the observed and expected fauna, are all discussed. The indices are assessed on the reference sites and on a separate test set of 340 sites, which are subject to a wide range of types and degrees of impairment.     

Predictive vegetation modeling for conservation: impact of error propagation from digital elevation data.

The effect of digital elevation model (DEM) error on environmental variables, and subsequently on predictive habitat models, has not been explored. Based on an error analysis of a DEM, multiple error realizations of the DEM were created and used to develop both direct and indirect environmental variables for input to predictive habitat models. The study explores the effects of DEM error and the resultant uncertainty of results on typical steps in the modeling procedure for prediction of vegetation species presence/absence. Results indicate that all of these steps and results, including the statistical significance of environmental variables, shapes of species response curves in generalized additive models (GAMs), stepwise model selection, coefficients and standard errors for generalized linear models (GLMs), prediction accuracy (Cohen's kappa and AUC), and spatial extent of predictions, were greatly affected by this type of error. Error in the DEM can affect the reliability of interpretations of model results and level of accuracy in predictions, as well as the spatial extent of the predictions. We suggest that the sensitivity of DEM-derived environmental variables to error in the DEM should be considered before including them in the modeling processes.