The effects of climate change on landscape diversity: an example in Ontario forests

The predicted increase in climate warming will have profound impacts on forest ecosystems and landscapes in Canada because of increased temperature, and altered disturbance regimes. Climate change is predicted to be variable within Canada, and to cause considerable weather variability among years. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, fire weather index (FWI) is predicted to rise over much of Ontario by 1.5 to 2 times. FWI may actually fall slightly, compared to current values, in central eastern Ontario (Abitibi), but for central-south Ontario it is expected to rise sharply by as much as 5 times current values. We predict that the combination of temperature rise and greater than average fire occurrence will result in a shrinkage of area covered by boreal forest towards the north and east; that some form of Great Lakes forest type will occupy most of central Ontario following the 5 C isotherm north; that pyrophilic species will become most common, especially jack pine and aspen; that patch sizes will initially decrease then expand resulting in considerable homogenization of forest landscapes; that there will be little 'old-growth' forest; and that landscape disequilibrium will be enhanced. If climate change occurs as rapidly as is predicted, then some species particularly those with heavy seeds may not be able to respond to the rapid changes and local extinctions are expected. Anthropogenically-altered species compositions in current forests, coupled with fire suppression over the past 50 years, may lead to forest landscapes that are different then were seen in the Holocene period, as described by paleoecological reconstructions. In particular, forests dominated by white pine in the south and black spruce in the middle north may not be common. Wildlife species that respond at the landscape level, i.e., those with body sizes >1 kg, will be most affected by changes in landscape structure. In particular we expect moose and caribou populations to decline significantly, while white-tailed deer will likely become abundant across Ontario and Quebec.     

Development of algorithms for predicting ignition probabilities and explosion frequencies

A project was performed for the Explosion Research Cooperative to develop algorithms for predicting the frequencies of explosions based on a variety of design, operating and environmental conditions. Algorithms were developed for estimating unit-based explosion frequencies, such as those reported in API Recommended Practice 752, but in more detail and covering a much broader range of chemical process types. The project also developed methods for predicting scenario-based explosion frequencies, using frequencies of initiating events and conditional probabilities of immediate ignition and delayed ignition resulting in explosion. The algorithms were based on a combination of published data and expert opinion.     

Dissipation of sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim antibiotics from manure-amended soils

In this study, the dissipation of two antibiotics, sulfamethoxazole (SMX) and trimethoprim (TRM), in three soils under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions are evaluated. Under aerobic conditions, SMX dissipated rapidly through biodegradation but TRM was more persistent. Within the first 20 days in biologically active soils, >50% of the SMX was lost from the clay loam and loamy sand soils, and >80% loss was noted in the loam soil. Anaerobic dissipation of both compounds was more rapid than aerobic dissipation. The addition of manure to the soil only slightly increased the initial dissipation rate of the two compounds. Little effect was found on glucose mineralisation in soil following the addition of SMX and TRM, even as mixtures at high concentrations.     

Enhancing Conservation,Ecosystem Services,and Local Livelihoods through a Wildlife Premium Mechanism

We propose the wildlife premium mechanism as an innovation to conserve endangered large vertebrates. The performance‐based payment scheme would allow stakeholders in lower‐income countries to generate revenue by recovering and maintaining threatened fauna that can also serve as umbrella species (i.e., species whose protection benefits other species with which they co‐occur). There are 3 possible options for applying the premium: option 1, embed premiums in a carbon payment; option 2, link premiums to a related carbon payment, but as independent and legally separate transactions; option 3, link premiums to noncarbon payments for conserving ecosystem services (PES). Each option presents advantages, such as incentive payments to improve livelihoods of rural poor who reside in or near areas harboring umbrella species, and challenges, such as the establishment of a subnational carbon credit scheme. In Kenya, Peru, and Nepal pilot premium projects are now underway or being finalized that largely follow option 1. The Kasigau (Kenya) project is the first voluntary carbon credit project to win approval from the 2 leading groups sanctioning such protocols and has already sold carbon credits totaling over $1.2 million since June 2011. A portion of the earnings is divided among community landowners and projects that support community members and has added over 350 jobs to the local economy. All 3 projects involve extensive community management because they occur on lands where locals hold the title or have a long‐term lease from the government. The monitoring, reporting, and verification required to make premium payments credible to investors include transparent methods for collecting data on key indices by trained community members and verification of their reporting by a biologist. A wildlife premium readiness fund would enable expansion of pilot programs needed to test options beyond those presented here. Mejora de la Conservación, Servicios del Ecosistema y Calidad de Vida Local Mediante un Mecanismo de Compensación de Vida Silvestre     

Twenty Years of New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network: Benefits of Careful Design and Consistent Operation1

Davies‐Colley, Robert J., David G. Smith, Robert C. Ward, Graham G. Bryers, Graham B. McBride, John M. Quinn, and Mike R. Scarsbrook, 2011. Twenty Years of New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network: Benefits of Careful Design and Consistent Operation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):750‐771. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00554.x Abstract: This paper reviews New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network (NRWQN), which is now in its third decade of monitoring. The NRWQN is noteworthy for being operationally stable throughout its history, and the resulting consistency is increasingly valuable for detecting water quality trends and for “anchoring” temporary special purpose monitoring campaigns. The NRWQN was carefully designed following considerable effort to learn from monitoring experiences elsewhere. Monthly visits are made to 77 sites (all near hydrometric stations) on 35 river systems that cumulatively drain about one half of the national landscape. “Core” (routinely measured) variables are: conductivity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, visual clarity, turbidity, colored dissolved organic matter, fecal indicator bacteria, and different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus (italics indicate field measurements). Associated benthic biological monitoring comprises monthly visual assessment of periphyton and annual sampling for macro‐invertebrates. We overview the conception, design, initiation, and operational history of the NRWQN, and highlight the diverse applications of its datasets including numerous scientific applications, national‐scale modeling of material fluxes, and state‐of‐environment reporting and practical water management at both regional and national scale. The qualified success of the NRWQN can probably be attributed to careful (and parsimonious) design and consistent operation.     

A Practical Guide to Estimating Cleanup Costs

Cost estimates are frequently developed to evaluate hazardous‐waste‐site cleanup options in support of a site investigation, remedy selection decision, or assessment of environmental liabilities. The accuracy of the cost estimate depends largely on the quality of the information available at the time it is prepared. This article presents a practical guide to developing a cleanup cost estimate. It includes information on how to document assumptions, use the latest technical resources, and perform basic adjustments to account for uncertainty and the time value of money. The content is based upon a recent guidance document issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers entitled A Guide to Developing and Documenting Cost Estimates during the Feasibility Study (USEPA, 2000). © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.