Fuzzy logic-based approach for identifying the risk importance of human error

In the system reliability and safety assessment, the focuses are not only the risks caused by hardware or software, but also the risks caused by “human error”. There are uncertainties in the traditional human error risk assessment (e.g. HECA) due to the uncertainties and imprecisions in Human Error Probability (HEP), Error-Effect Probability (EEP) and Error Consequence Severity (ECS). While fuzzy logic can deal with uncertainty and imprecision. It is an efficient tool for solving problems where knowledge uncertainty may occur. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new Fuzzy Human Error Risk Assessment Methodology (FHERAM) for determining Human Error Risk Importance (HERI) as a function of HEP, EEP and ECS. The modeling technique is based on the concept of fuzzy logic, which offers a convenient way of representing the relationships between the inputs (i.e. HEP, EEP, and ECS) and outputs (i.e. HERI) of a risk assessment system in the form of IF–THEN rules. It is implemented on fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB using Mamdani techniques. A case example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach. Results show that the method is more realistic than the traditional ones, and it is practicable and valuable.     

Dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary in summer

Field measurements of salinity, wind and river discharge and numerical simulations of hydrodynamics from 1978 to 1984 are used to investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China during summer. The studies have shown that there are four major horizontal buoyant plume types in summer: Offshore Bulge Spreading (Type I), West Alongshore Spreading (Type II), East Offshore Spreading (Type III), and Symmetrical Alongshore Spreading (Type IV). River mouth conditions, winds and ambient coastal currents have inter-influences to the transport processes of the buoyant plume. It is found that all of the four types are surface-advected plumes by analysing the vertical characteristic of the plumes, and the monthly variations of the river discharge affect the plume size dominantly. The correlation coefficient between the PRE plume size and the river discharge reaches 0.85 during the high river discharge season. A wind strength index has been introduced to examine the wind effect. It is confirmed that winds play a significant role in forming the plume morphology. The alongshore wind stress and the coastal currents determine the alongshore plume spreading. The impact of the ambient currents such as Dongsha Current and South China Sea (SCS) Warm Current on the plume off the shelf has also assessed. The present study has demonstrated that both the river discharge and wind conditions affect the plume evolution.     

Reduction of Fusarium rot and maintenance of fruit quality in melon using eco-friendly hot water treatment

Significant losses in harvested fruit can be directly attributable to decay fungi and quality deterioration. Hot water treatment (HWT) has been demonstrated to be an effective and economic environment-friendly approach for managing postharvest decay and maintaining fruit quality. In this study, the effects of HWT (45 °C for 10, 15, 20, and 25 min) on in vitro growth of Fusarium oxysporum, in vivo Fusarium rot, and natural decay of melon were investigated. HWT inhibited spore germination and germ tube elongation of F. oxysporum. Protein impairment and ATP consumption triggered by HWT contributed to the inhibitory effect. Results of in vivo studies showed that HWT effectively controlled Fusarium rot and natural decay of melon. Correspondingly, HWT induced a significant increase in content of total phenolic compounds and lignin of melon. These findings indicate that the effects of HWT on Fusarium rot may be associated with the direct fungal inhibition and the elicitation of defense responses in fruit. Importantly, HWT used in this study had beneficial effects on fruit quality as well. HWT may represent an effective non-chemical approach for management of postharvest Fusarium rot.     

Responses of free amino acids in rice seedlings during cyanide metabolism

Responses of free amino acids to botanical assimilation of free cyanide were investigated. Young rice seedlings (Oryza sativa L. cv. XZX 45) were grown in nutrient solution amended with free cyanide (KCN). Cyanide was analyzed in solution as well as in plant materials to estimate the phyto-assimilation potential. Free amino acids in different parts of plants were also measured to determine metabolic responses to KCN exposure. Phyto-assimilation of KCN was obvious, and the rates were positively correlated to the concentration supplied. Although changes in total amino acid content in plant materials were negligible during KCN metabolism (p?>?0.05), responses of different amino acids to KCN treatments were quite different. All treatments with KCN increased the content of proline (Pro) and isoleucine (Ile) in roots significantly compared with control (p?<?0.05), while changes of aspartic acid, lysine, and histidine in roots were more evident at higher KCN treatments (p?<?0.05). Results indicate that the content of Pro, Ile, and tyrosine showed pronounced increase in shoots of rice seedlings exposed to KCN at 1.44 mg CN/L or higher (p?<?0.05). Other amino acids slightly changed in all plant materials exposed to KCN (p?>?0.05). Results indicate that specific amino acids in rice seedlings showed positive response to non-toxic concentrations of exogenous KCN. These findings could provide additional insights into the inducible mechanisms underlying the involvement of amino acids in KCN metabolism.     

An integrated method for safety pre-warning of complex system

In large-scale and complex industrial systems, unplanned outages and hazardous accidents cause huge economic losses, environmental contamination, and human injuries, due to component degradation, exogenous changes, and operational mistakes. In order to ensure safety and increase operational performance and reliability of complex system, this study proposes an integrated method for safety pre-warning to analyze the current safety state of each component and the whole system indicating hidden hazards and potential consequence, and furthermore predict future degradation trends in the long term.The work presented here describes the rationale and implementation of the integrated method incorporating HAZOP study, degradation process modeling, dynamic Bayesian network construction, condition monitoring, safety assessment and prognosis steps, taking advantage of the priori knowledge of the interactions and dependencies among components and the environment, the relationships between hazard causes and effects, and the use of historical failure data and online real-time data from condition monitoring.The application of the integrated safety pre-warning approach described here to the specific example of the gas turbine compressor system demonstrates how each phase of the presented method contributes to completion of the safety pre-warning system development in a systematic way.     

Water Governance and Water Use Efficiency: The Five Principles of WUA Management and Performance in China1

Wang, Jinxia, Jikun Huang, Lijuan Zhang, Qiuqiong Huang, and Scott Rozelle, 2010. Water Governance and Water Use Efficiency: The Five Principles of WUA Management and Performance in China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 665-685. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00439.x Abstract: In recent years China has attempted to reform water management by decentralizing water management responsibilities. The overall goal of our paper is to better understand the emergence of water user associations (WUAs) in China and assess if they are adhering to the practices spelled out by the Five Principles, a set of recommended practices that are supposed to lead to successful WUA operation. Using four sets of different types of villages to examine implementation and performance, we find that World Bank-supported WUA villages (“Bank villages”) can be thought of as operating mostly according to the Five Principles. For example, the Bank villages were endowed with a more reliable water supply; were set up and were operating with a relatively high degree of farmer participation; and leaders were more consultative and the process more formal. When WUAs are run according to the Five Principals, we show that WUAs increase water use efficiency. The study also provides evidence that there is a perception in the Bank villages that water management is improving in general and that there is less conflict both within the village and among villages. Perhaps more importantly, we find that the Bank’s effort to promote WUAs extended beyond their own project villages. The openness, consultative nature, and transparency found in the Bank WUAs are also found (albeit at a somewhat lower level) in the non-Bank WUA villages.     

内蒙古农作物秸秆生物质热电产业发展优势探讨

开发和利用秸秆生物质能对促进社会经济的发展和改善生态环境具有重大意义.内蒙古是农作物秸秆资源蕴含丰富的省区,本文通过对内蒙古秸秆生物质资源现状分析的基础上,简单介绍了生物质热电产业状况和良好的政策环境,探讨内蒙古发展秸秆生物质热电产业的优势.     

Sublethal impact of paraquat on the life span and parasitic behavior of Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh

This study focuses on assessing the impact of sublethal doses of paraquat on the survival, the emergence, the life span and the parasitic behavior of Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). The impact of sublethal doses was measured at room temperature using different densities of the cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae. The results reveal that the field dose of paraquat caused 100% mortality in D. rapae. The percentage emergence of D. rapae decreased from 80.5% in the control group to 71.5% when treated with the lowest concentration of paraquat. Similarly, the life span of parasitoids that emerged from the mummy treated with paraquat also decreased significantly. Oviposition capability and ovipositor thrusting frequency of D. rapae also treated with sublethal dose paraquat decreased significantly along with a shortened patch residence time in the foraging area.     

Simulation of substrate degradation in composting of sewage sludge

To simulate the substrate degradation kinetics of the composting process, this paper develops a mathematical model with a first-order reaction assumption and heat/mass balance equations. A pilot-scale composting test with a mixture of sewage sludge and wheat straw was conducted in an insulated reactor. The BVS (biodegradable volatile solids) degradation process, matrix mass, MC (moisture content), DM (dry matter) and VS (volatile solid) were simulated numerically by the model and experimental data. The numerical simulation offered a method for simulating k (the first-order rate constant) and estimating k₂₀ (the first-order rate constant at 20 °C). After comparison with experimental values, the relative error of the simulation value of the mass of the compost at maturity was 0.22%, MC 2.9%, DM 4.9% and VS 5.2%, which mean that the simulation is a good fit. The k of sewage sludge was simulated, and k₂₀, k_20s (first-order rate coefficient of slow fraction of BVS at 20 °C) of the sewage sludge were estimated as 0.082 and 0.015 d^?1, respectively.     

Willingness and behavior towards e-waste recycling for residents in Beijing city,China

This paper is to investigate the behavior of residents towards electrical and electronic waste (e-waste) recycling in Beijing. For this purpose a large sample questionnaire survey was performed to explore the residents’ characteristics of recycling behavior and preference of e-waste recycling pattern. Besides, the willingness of residents to participate in e-waste recycling was also assessed in our study. For this a logistic regression model was developed to estimate and explain residents’ willingness in e-waste recycling. The model showed that Convenience of recycling facilities and service, Residential conditions, Recycling habit and Economic benefits are four determinants of Beijing residents’ willingness and behavior in e-waste recycling. And centralized recycling pattern by professional recovery spots would have a broad prospect if various kinds of channels can be provided to make the residents feel more convenient in e-waste recycling.