Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值

公司财务表现与环境表现之间的联系日益明显.各公司可以通过促进后者而力求获得资助优势.公司环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值随资助类型而异,同样也随环境改善的程度和具体细节而异.争取资助的公司,以及政府和非政府组织,应当熟悉不同的金融服务业及其具体需要和问题.     

Occurrence of the semi-catadromous European eel Anguilla anguilla in the Baltic Sea

Strontium (Sr) and calcium (Ca) contents in the otoliths of yellow and silver European eels [Anguilla anguilla (L.)] collected from coastal waters of the Baltic Sea and a freshwater lake in Sweden were examined by wavelength dispersive X-ray spectrometry with an electron microprobe. The mean Sr/Ca ratios from elver check to otolith edge were significantly higher for the eels from coastal waters (5.39 ± 1.09‰) than for those from the lake (0.71 ± 0.89‰). The evidence indicates that European eels in the Baltic Sea do not necessarily migrate into freshwater streams during the growth phase. Received: 30 September 1999 / Accepted: 6 April 2000     

Parthenogenetic reproduction of Diaphanosoma celebensis (Crustacea: Cladocera): influence of salinity on feeding, survival, growth and neonate production

 Effect of salinity on the feeding rate and parthenogenetic reproduction of asexual females of the cladoceran Diaphanosoma celebensis Stingelin was studied. Short-term (10 h) grazing experiments were conducted using Isochrysis galbana as feed at 5, 17, 25 and 30 psu salinity. Gut pigment concentration showed a significantly higher rate of feeding at lower salinities. Survival, growth, maturity attainment and neonate production of asexual females reared in the above four test salinities indicated preference for lower salinities (5 and 17 psu). The mean size of adult females decreased from 909 to 593 μm, mean life span from 24 to 5 d, mean neonate production from 12 to 2 and mean size of neonates from 434 to 400 μm as the salinity increased from 5 to 30 psu. Salinity variations also affected the size and age of primiparous females. Resting egg formation and sexual reproduction did not occur at the tested salinities. The results indicate that D. celebensis is adapted to low saline, estuarine environments. Received: 14 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 March 2000     

Genetic differentiation in a pelagic crustacean (Meganyctiphanes norvegica: Euphausiacea) from the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea

Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars)is a pelagic crustacean that plays a key role in marine food webs of North Atlantic Ocean and marginal seas. We studied eight population samples collected in the European Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. By means of single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP) and direct sequencing, we investigated a segment of 158 base pairs of the mitochondrial gene coding for the subunit 1 of NADH dehydrogenase. We found 12 sequence variants among the 385 individuals studied. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 14.75% of the total genetic variability was explained by differences between populations, thus indicating absence of panmixia for these populations. Pairwise comparisons revealed three distinct genetic pools: the first one represented by Cadiz Bay, the second one by the Ligurian Sea, and the third one included all the NE Atlantic samples. We also investigated one population from the Alboran Sea (within the Mediterranean basin, east of the Strait of Gibraltar). This population was found to be genetically intermediate between the NE Atlantic samples and the Ligurian sample, suggesting that the restriction to the gene flow is not associated with the Strait of Gibraltar, but possibly with the Oran–Almeria oceanographic front. The present work indicates that M. norvegica, although endowed with a high dispersal capacity because of its pelagic habit, can develop separate breeding units inside the same oceanic basin (the Atlantic). Furthermore, the Ligurian sample should be considered as a distinct evolutionary entity, separated from the Atlantic population. Received: 2 May 1999 / Accepted: 26 November 1999     

Escape responses of four Chilean intertidal limpets to seastars

The Chilean intertidal Lottiidae limpet fauna consists of at least nine species, grouped into the monophyletic taxon Scurria and a single taxon preliminarily designated as `Lottia' orbignyi (Dall). Within the Scurria clade, the most basal species are Scurria variabilis (Sowerby), S. viridula (Lamarck), and S.zebrina (Lesson), and among the most crown groups are S. ceciliana (Orbigny) and S. araucana (Orbigny). This phylogenetic information, obtained by the analysis of molecular characters (16S mtDNA), provides a framework for a comparative study of behavioral characters. In this study, we analyze the escape responses of two basal limpet species (`L.' orbignyi and S. viridula) and two derived limpet species (S. araucana and S. ceciliana) in the presence of the limpet predatory seastar Heliaster helianthus (Lamarck) and the limpet non-predatory seastars Stichaster striatus Muller and Troschel and Patiria chilensis Lutken. Neither P.chilensis nor Stichaster striatus induced escape responses such as those observed with the predatory H. helianthus. Moreover, in the presence of H. helianthus, basal and derived limpet species differed significantly in the percentage of individuals responding, reaction time, and duration of the response. The basal species `L.' orbignyi and Scurriaviridula exhibited instantaneous and vigorous locomotor responses, whereas the derived species S. araucana and S. ceciliana displayed no locomotor responses. The same pattern was found in responses to H. helianthus homogenates. The results strongly suggest a correlation between phylogeny and anti-predator escape responses to the seastar H. helianthus. Alternative escape responses have evolved for basal and derived species within the Chilean clade. Received: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 16 August 2000