The global partnership for sustainable development

This paper examines whether foreign aid, together with other economic, social and environmental factors, contributes to sustainable development. It starts with an illustrative theoretical growth model where foreign aid promotes sustainable development by protecting the environment. Using factor analysis and newly developed estimation methods for a dynamic panel data model with endogenous regressors, the empirical section of the paper finds evidence that foreign aid has had a significantly positive influence on sustainable development in aid recipient countries. This effect is very likely to go through channels related to growth and resources as well as a technology channel with respect to energy intensity. This research has important implications for a post‐2015 development framework on international collective action with regard to a sustainable future.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

Development of the Spatial Rainfall Generator (SRGEN) for the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender Model

Accurate spatial representation of climatic patterns is often a challenge in modeling biophysical processes at the watershed scale, especially where the representation of a spatial gradient in rainfall is not sufficiently captured by the number of weather stations. The spatial rainfall generator (SRGEN) is developed as an extension of the “weather generator” (WXGEN), a component of the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. SRGEN generates spatially distributed daily rainfall using monthly weather statistics available at multiple locations in a watershed. The spatial rainfall generator as incorporated in APEX is tested on the Cowhouse watershed (1,178 km²) in central Texas. The watershed presented a significant spatial rainfall gradient of 2.9 mm/km in the lateral (north‐south) directions based on four rainfall gages. A comparative analysis between SRGEN and WXGEN indicates that SRGEN performs well (PBIAS = 2.40%). Good results were obtained from APEX for streamflow (NSE = 0.99, PBIAS = 8.34%) and NO₃‐N and soluble P loads (PBIAS ≈ 6.00% for each, respectively). However, APEX underpredicted sediment yield and organic N and P loads (PBIAS: 24.75‐27.90%) with SRGEN, although its uncertainty in output was lower than WXGEN results (PBIAS: ?13.02 to ?46.13%). The overall improvement achieved in rainfall generation by SRGEN is demonstrated to be effective in the improving model performance on flow and water quality output.     

Evaluating Alternative Temporal Survey Designs for Monitoring Wetland Area and Detecting Changes Over Time in California

Evaluation of wetland extent and changes in extent is a foundation of many wetland monitoring and assessment programs. Probabilistic sampling and mapping provides a cost‐effective alternative to comprehensive mapping for large geographic areas. One unresolved challenge for probabilistic or design‐based approaches is how best to monitor both status (e.g., extent at a single point in time) and trends (e.g., changes in extent over time) within a single monitoring program. Existing wetland status and trends (S&T) monitoring programs employ fixed sampling locations; however, theoretical evaluation and limited implementation in other landscape monitoring areas suggest that alternative designs could increase statistical efficiency and overall accuracy. In particular, designs that employ both fixed and nonfixed sampling locations (alternately termed permanent and temporary samples), termed sampling with partial replacement (SPR), are considered to efficiently and effectively balance monitoring current status with detection of trends. This study utilized simulated sampling to assess the performance of fixed sampling locations, SPR, and strictly nonfixed designs for monitoring wetland S&T over time. Modeled changes in wetland density over time were used as inputs for sampling simulations. In contrast to previous evaluations of SPR, the results of this study support the use of a fixed sampling design and show that SPR may underestimate both S&T.     

A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) movement patterns and habitat use determined by satellite tagging in eastern Australian waters

Partial migration is considered ubiquitous among vertebrates, but little is known about the movements of oceanodromous apex predators such as sharks, particularly at their range extents. PAT-Mk10 and SPOT5 electronic tags were used to investigate tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) spatial dynamics, site fidelity and habitat use off eastern Australia between April 2007 and May 2013. Of the 18 tags deployed, 15 recorded information on depth and/or temperature, and horizontal movements. Tracking times ranged between four and 408 days, with two recovered pop-up archival tags allowing 63 days of high-resolution archived data to be analysed. Overall mean proportions of time-at-depth revealed that G. cuvier spent the majority of time-at-depths of <20 m, but undertook dives as deep as 920 m. Tagged sharks occupied ambient water temperatures from 29.5 °C at the surface to 5.9 °C at depth. Deep dives (>500 m) occurred mostly around dawn and dusk, but no definitive daily dive patterns were observed. Horizontal movements were characterised by combinations of resident and transient behaviour that coincided with seasonal changes in water temperature. While the majority of movement activity was focused around continental slope waters, large-scale migration was evident with one individual moving from offshore Sydney, Australia, to New Caledonia (c. 1,800 km) in 48 days. Periods of tiger shark residency outside of Australia’s fisheries management zones highlight the potential vulnerability of the species to unregulated fisheries and the importance of cross-jurisdictional arrangements for species’ management and conservation.     

Copulation duration,but not paternity share,potentially mediates inbreeding avoidance in Drosophila montana

Studying the incidence of inbreeding avoidance is important for understanding the evolution of mating systems, especially in the context of mate choice for genetic compatibility. We investigated whether inbreeding avoidance mechanisms have evolved in the malt fly, Drosophila montana, by measuring mating latency (a measure of male attractiveness), copulation duration, days to remating, offspring production, and the proportion of offspring sired by the first (P₁) and second (P₂) male to mate in full-sibling and unrelated pairs. SNP markers were used for paternity analysis and for calculating pairwise relatedness values (genotype sharing) between mating pairs. We found 18 % inbreeding depression in egg-to-adult viability, suggesting that mating with close relatives is costly. Copulation duration was shorter between previously mated females and their brothers than with unrelated males. Based on an earlier study, shorter copulation is likely to decrease the number of inbred progeny by decreasing female remating time. However, shorter copulations did not lead to lower paternity (P₂) of full-sibling males. Progeny production of double-mated females was lower when the second male was a full-sibling as compared to an unrelated male, but we could not distinguish between inbreeding depression and lower female reproductive effort after mating with a relative. Relatedness estimates based on 34 SNPs did not detect any quantitative effect of relatedness variation on copulation duration and progeny production. We suggest that inbreeding depression has been strong enough to select for inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in our Finnish D. montana population.     

Deconstructing an assemblage of “turtle” barnacles: species assignments and fickle fidelity in Chelonibia

Barnacles in the genus Chelonibia are commensal with a variety of motile marine animals including sea turtles, crustaceans, and sirenians. We conducted a worldwide molecular phylogenetic survey of Chelonibia collected from nearly all known hosts to assess species relationships, host-fidelity, and phylogeographic structure. Using DNA sequences from a protein-coding mitochondrial gene (COI), a mitochondrial rRNA gene (12S), and one nuclear rRNA gene (28S), we found that of four species, three (C. testudinaria, C. patula, and C. manati) are genetically indistinguishable. In addition, we show each utilizes a rare androdioecious mode of reproduction involving complemental males. In contrast, the fourth species (C. caretta), which is hermaphroditic and specializes on turtles, is genetically distinct—leading to the conclusion that the three former taxa are morphotypes of the same species and should be synonymized under C. testudinaria. Phylogenetic analysis resulted in three geographic clades (Atlantic, Indian Ocean/western Pacific, and eastern Pacific) with haplotype parsimony networks revealing no shared haplotypes among geographic regions. Analysis of molecular variance detected significant differences among sequences by region (p < 0.005); conversely, there were no significant differences among sequences when grouped by host or taxonomic designation. Average pairwise genetic distances were lower between the eastern Pacific and Atlantic clades (0.053 ± 0.006) than between the eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean/western Pacific clades (0.073 ± 0.008), suggesting Atlantic and eastern Pacific populations were connected more recently, perhaps until the rise of the Isthmus of Panama. Host use by Chelonibia morphotypes is discussed along with speculation on possible ancestral hosts and support for a “turtle-first” hypothesis.     

Sclerochronological studies reveal that patterns of otolith growth of adults of two co-occurring species of Platycephalidae are synchronised by water temperature variations

Chronologies are developed from the otolith growth-increment widths of adult rock flathead (Platycephalus laevigatus) and longhead flathead (Leviprora inops) collected from three inter-connected embayments in temperate south-western Australia. Marginal increment trends on otoliths, in combination with the dendrochronological technique of crossdating, provide strong evidence that an opaque zone is formed annually in the otoliths of both species. Increment widths between opaque zones in the otoliths of individuals of P. laevigatus (maximum age 20 years) and L. inops (maximum age 21 years) were synchronised within and between species. The correlation between the two master otolith chronologies, i.e. mean standardised increment width for each year, was highly significant (P < 0.01). The master otolith chronology for each species was positively correlated with mean sea surface temperatures from 1 July to 30 June, which encompassed the austral summer when growth is typically greatest, and with mean monthly sea surface temperature between September and March. Leeuwin Current strength, which influences the biotic characteristics of some marine species on the south coast, has little influence on the pattern of otolith growth, presumably because the inter-connected embayments from which fish were obtained were partially enclosed. On the basis of the above data and the geographical distributions of P. laevigatus and L. inops, it is proposed that, while both species would grow faster with increasing temperature, the temperatures on the south coast are closer to the optimum for the former species.