Effects of threat management interactions on conservation priorities

Decisions need to be made about which biodiversity management actions are undertaken to mitigate threats and about where these actions are implemented. However, management actions can interact; that is, the cost, benefit, and feasibility of one action can change when another action is undertaken. There is little guidance on how to explicitly and efficiently prioritize management for multiple threats, including deciding where to act. Integrated management could focus on one management action to abate a dominant threat or on a strategy comprising multiple actions to abate multiple threats. Furthermore management could be undertaken at sites that are in close proximity to reduce costs. We used cost‐effectiveness analysis to prioritize investments in fire management, controlling invasive predators, and reducing grazing pressure in a bio‐diverse region of southeastern Queensland, Australia. We compared outcomes of 5 management approaches based on different assumptions about interactions and quantified how investment needed, benefits expected, and the locations prioritized for implementation differed when interactions were taken into account. Managing for interactions altered decisions about where to invest and in which actions to invest and had the potential to deliver increased investment efficiency. Differences in high priority locations and actions were greatest between the approaches when we made different assumptions about how management actions deliver benefits through threat abatement: either all threats must be managed to conserve species or only one management action may be required. Threatened species management that does not consider interactions between actions may result in misplaced investments or misguided expectations of the effort required to mitigate threats to species.     

Preventing falls among seniors: the way forward

There is a growing body of research about the etiology and prevention of falls. However, the persistently high incidence of falls among seniors calls for renewed efforts to develop, test, implement, and scale-up fall prevention strategies for older adults. This paper considers advances in the field and describes three priority areas for generating research and translating knowledge on fall prevention. Clinical practice guidelines, systems change approaches and environmental risk factors are discussed. Recommendations include transcending our health sector view of the fall prevention problem, supporting comparative research on system-oriented approaches to fall prevention, and examining ways to sustain and scale-up fall prevention efforts.     

Do novel genotypes drive the success of an invasive bark beetle-fungus complex? Implications for potential reinvasion

Novel genotypes often arise during biological invasions, but their role in invasion success has rarely been elucidated. Here we examined the population genetics and behavior of the fungus, Leptographium procerum, vectored by a highly invasive bark beetle, Dendroctonus valens, to determine whether genetic changes in the fungus contributed to the invasive success of the beetle-fungal complex in China. The fungus was introduced by the beetle from the United States to China, where we identified several novel genotypes using microsatellite markers. These novel genotypes were more pathogenic to Chinese host seedlings than were other genotypes and they also induced the release of higher amounts of 3-carene, the primary host attractant for the beetle vector, from inoculated seedlings. This evidence suggests a possible mechanism, based on the evolution of a novel genotype during the two or three decades since its introduction, for the success of the beetle-fungal complex in its introduced region.     

Foraging guilds of North American birds

We propose a foraging guild classification for North American inland, coastal, and pelagic birds. This classification uses a three-part identification for each guild—major food, feeding substrate, and foraging technique—to classify 672 species of birds in both the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. We have attempted to group species that use similar resources in similar ways. Researchers have identified foraging guilds generally by examining species distributions along one or more defined environmental axes. Such studies frequently result in species with several guild designations. While the continuance of these studies is important, to accurately describe species' functional roles, managers need methods to consider many species simultaneously when trying to determine the impacts of habitat alteration. Thus, we present an avian foraging classification as a starting point for further discussion to aid those faced with the task of describing community effects of habitat change.     

Measurement of cholinesterases in amniotic fluid using a naphthyl acetate as substrate: A possible initial test for prenatal diagnosis of open neural tube defects

A quantitative method for cholinesterases in amniotic fluid using the non-specific substrate α naphthyl acetate and the cholinesterase-specific inhibitor, eserine, is described. This assay was used to test 671 samples of amniotic fluid. The diagnoses for fetal ONTDs, based on the levels of AChE + ChE, were compared with those made for the same samples by the AFP method. Correct diagnoses were made by both methods with amniotic fluid from 35 women carrying fetuses with ONTDs and 631 carrying normal fetuses. There were five false-positive test results for normal fetuses by both methods when the cut-off points were 5 standard deviations above the mean for AFP and above the upper limit of the normal range (7. 5 milliunits) for cholinesterase (AChE + ChE). None of the false-positive samples from either method had the acetylcholinesterase band of activity characteristic of ONTDs after gel electrophoresis. In addition to the above 671 samples, 37 pregnancies with serious fetal abnormalities other than ONTDs were tested. Two were identified by both the AFP and AChE + ChE methods, two more by AFP assay and one other by the AChE + ChE assay.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

Improvement of mesenteric superior artery Doppler velocimetry by amnio-infusion in fetal gastroschisis†

This study aimed to analyse the influence of amnio-infusion on superior mesenteric Doppler velocimetry and to correlate Doppler data with outcome in fetuses presenting with gastroschisis. Umbilical and intra- and extra-abdominal superior mesenteric artery Doppler velocimetry was measured prospectively before and after amnio-infusion in fetuses with gastroschisis. Doppler index values and changes were correlated with the following outcome parameters: importance of fibrous coating, duration of hospitalization in the neonatal intensive care unit, total duration of hospitalization, duration of parenteral feeding, duration of ventilatory assistance, and the interval to initiation of oral feeding. A significant improvement of diastolic flow was observed in the extra-abdominal superior mesenteric artery with amnio-infusion. No similar change was seen in the intra-abdominal superior mesenteric or in the umbilical artery. Pre-amnioinfusion extra-abdominal mesenteric Doppler index was correlated with maximal diameter of exteriorized bowel and slightly with duration of hospitalization in the neonatal intensive care unit, but no other relation between Doppler index and outcome parameter could be ascertained. Amnio-infusion induces modifications in the vascularization of exteriorized bowel in gastroschisis. This could partly explain the beneficial effect of this procedure on fetal gut. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical and Hybrid Methods Implemented in a Web Application for Predicting Reservoir Inflows during Flood Events

Reservoir management is a critical component of flood management, and information on reservoir inflows is particularly essential for reservoir managers to make real‐time decisions given that flood conditions change rapidly. This study's objective is to build real‐time data‐driven services that enable managers to rapidly estimate reservoir inflows from available data and models. We have tested the services using a case study of the Texas flooding events in the Lower Colorado River Basin in November 2014 and May 2015, which involved a sudden switch from drought to flooding. We have constructed two prediction models: a statistical model for flow prediction and a hybrid statistical and physics‐based model that estimates errors in the flow predictions from a physics‐based model. The study demonstrates that the statistical flow prediction model can be automated and provides acceptably accurate short‐term forecasts. However, for longer term prediction (2 h or more), the hybrid model fits the observations more closely than the purely statistical or physics‐based prediction models alone. Both the flow and hybrid prediction models have been published as Web services through Microsoft's Azure Machine Learning (AzureML) service and are accessible through a browser‐based Web application, enabling ease of use by both technical and nontechnical personnel.     

Population-level compensation impedes biological control of an invasive forb and indirect release of a native grass

The intentional introduction of specialist insect herbivores for biological control of exotic weeds provides ideal but understudied systems for evaluating important ecological concepts related to top-down control, plant compensatory responses, indirect effects, and the influence of environmental context on these processes. Centaurea stoebe (spotted knapweed) is a notorious rangeland weed that exhibited regional declines in the early 2000s, attributed to drought by some and to successful biocontrol by others. We initiated an experiment to quantify the effects of the biocontrol agent, Cyphocleonus achates, on Ce. stoebe and its interaction with a dominant native grass competitor, Pseudoroegneria spicata, under contrasting precipitation conditions. Plots containing monocultures of each plant species or equal mixtures of the two received factorial combinations of Cy. achates herbivory (exclusion or addition) and precipitation (May-June drought or "normal," defined by the 50-year average) for three years. Cy. achates herbivory reduced survival of adult Ce. stoebe plants by 9% overall, but this effect was stronger under normal precipitation compared to drought conditions, and stronger in mixed-species plots compared to monocultures. Herbivory had no effect on Ce. stoebe per capita seed production or on recruitment of seedlings or juveniles. In normal-precipitation plots of mixed composition, greater adult mortality due to Cy. achates herbivory resulted in increased recruitment of new adult Ce. stoebe. Due to this compensatory response to adult mortality, final Ce. stoebe densities did not differ between herbivory treatments regardless of context. Experimental drought reduced adult Ce. stoebe survival in mixed-species plots but did not impede recruitment of new adults or reduce final Ce. stoebe densities, perhaps due to the limited duration of the treatment. Ce. stoebe strongly depressed P. spicata reproduction and recruitment, but these impacts were not substantively alleviated by herbivory on Ce. stoebe. Population-level compensation by dominant plants may be an important factor inhibiting top-down effects in herbivore-driven and predator-driven cascades.     

Spatial scale of similarity as an indicator of metacommunity stability in exploited marine systems

The spatial scale of similarity among fish communities is characteristically large in temperate marine systems: connectivity is enhanced by high rates of dispersal during the larval/juvenile stages and the increased mobility of large-bodied fish. A larger spatial scale of similarity (low beta diversity) is advantageous in heavily exploited systems because locally depleted populations are more likely to be "rescued" by neighboring areas. We explored whether the spatial scale of similarity changed from 1970 to 2006 due to overfishing of dominant, large-bodied groundfish across a 300 000-km2 region of the Northwest Atlantic. Annually, similarities among communities decayed slowly with increasing geographic distance in this open system, but through time the decorrelation distance declined by 33%, concomitant with widespread reductions in biomass, body size, and community evenness. The decline in connectivity stemmed from an erosion of community similarity among local subregions separated by distances as small as 100 km. Larger fish, of the same species, contribute proportionally more viable offspring, so observed body size reductions will have affected maternal output. The cumulative effect of nonlinear maternal influences on egg/larval quality may have compromised the spatial scale of effective larval dispersal, which may account for the delayed recovery of certain member species. Our study adds strong support for using the spatial scale of similarity as an indicator of metacommunity stability both to understand the spatial impacts of exploitation and to refine how spatial structure is used in management plans.