The Value Of Public Participation During a Hazard,Impact, Risk And Vulnerability (HIRV) Analysis

The first part of this paper discusses the links between hazard, risk and vulnerability (HRV) analysis and the development of mitigative strategies. The second part discusses the need to include public participation when completing an HRV analysis. Two current HRV models are used to illustrate the general failure of HRV analysis to include public participation. The third part of this paper provides a brief overview of the Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability (HIRV) model and its use of public participation. The paper concludes by offering a synopsis of a case study in the town and regional area surrounding Barriere, British Columbia, Canada. This case study demonstrates a positive outcome when public participation is incorporated into an HIRV analysis.     

Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.     

First Detection of Hepatitis E Virus in Shellfish and in Seawater from Production Areas in Southern Italy

Shellfish samples (n = 384) from production areas, water samples from the same areas (n = 39) and from nearby sewage discharge points (n = 29) were analyzed for hepatitis E virus (HEV) by real-time and nested RT-PCR. Ten shellfish samples (2.6%) and five seawater samples (12.8%) tested positive for HEV; all characterized strains were G3 and showed high degree of sequence identity. An integrated surveillance in seafood and waters is relevant to reduce the risk of shellfish-associated illnesses.     

Land use as a mitigation strategy for the water-quality impacts of global warming: a scenario analysis on two watersheds in the Ohio River Basin

This study uses an integrative approach to study the water-quality impacts of future global climate and land-use changes. In this study, changing land-use types was used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The climate scenarios were based on projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Kingdom Hadley Centre's climate model (HadCM2). The Thornthwaite water-balance model was coupled with a land-use model (L-THIA) to investigate the hydrologic effects of future climate and land-use changes in the Ohio River Basin. The land-use model is based on the Soil Conservation Service's curve-number method. It uses the curve number, an index of land use and soil type, to calculate runoff volume and depth. The ArcView programming language, Avenue, was used to integrate the two models into a geographic information system (GIS). An output of the water-balance model, daily precipitation values adjusted for potential evapotranspiration, served as one of the inputs into the land-use model. Two watersheds were used in the present study: one containing the city of Cincinnati on the main stem of the Ohio River, and one containing the city of Columbus on a tributary of the Ohio River. These cities represent two major metropolitan areas in the Ohio River Basin with different land uses experiencing different rates of population growth. The projected hypothetical land-use changes were based on linear extrapolations of current population data. Results of the analyses indicate that conversion from agricultural land use to low-density residential land use may decrease the amount of surface runoff. The land-use practices which generate the least amount of runoff are forest, low-density residential, and agriculture; whereas high-density residential and commercial land-use types produce the highest runoff. The hydrologic soil type present was also an important factor in determining the amount of runoff and non-point-source pollution. A runoff-depth matrix and total nitrogen matrix were created for Cincinnati and Columbus to describe possible land-use mitigation measures in response to global climate change. The differences in Cincinnati and Columbus were due to differences in geographic location, air temperature, and total runoff. The results of this study may be useful to planners and policy makers for defining the possible impacts of future global climate and land-use changes on water resources.     

The Nature Conservancy's approach to prioritizing conservation action

Like many conservation organizations and federal and state agencies, The Nature Conservancy is in the process of large-scale planning and prioritization efforts. To improve the efficiency of these planning efforts, the Conservancy has developed a methodology for these efforts. The results of these planning efforts will be a conservation blueprint which identifies the conservation areas necessary for conserving biodiversity and a subset of those areas where the Conservancy will focus its immediate efforts over the next 10 years. The subset of all the conservation areas identified in the planning process help The Nature Conservancy determine where it will work. This subset of areas (referred to as action sites) is selected using a tool which ranks key criteria for each conservation area. These criteria include the current conservation status of each area, complementarity to other areas selected, the diversity and viability of targets at the area, the urgency and degree of threats to the targets, the feasibility or opportunity to abate the threats at the area and the leverage potential of working at a conservation area. Taken together, these criteria help planners to select the areas where they will focus their conservation efforts.     

Predator odour and its impact on male fertility and reproduction in Phodopus campbelli hamsters

 This study investigated the influence of cat urine odour in suppressing development and fertility in Campbell's hamster males. Exposure to this odour from postnatal day 11 until day 45 (sexual maturation) resulted in reduced sex organ weights, reduced testosterone levels and in an increase in abnormalities of the synaptonemal complex in both sex chromosomes and autosomes. Subsequent breeding experiments revealed a significant decrease in litter size. All these data indicate a severe effect of predator odour on the breeding success of potential prey species. It is assumed that these effects are caused by the sulphurous compounds in the urine; however, the underlying mechanisms are not yet known. Received: 31 January 2000 / Accepted in revised form: 6 June 2000     

Initial Homotypic Cell Pair Adhesion in Regenerating Hydra Facilitates Subsequent Adhesion of Homotypic Cells

 In Hydra vulgaris at the level of dissociated single cells endodermal cells adhere to each other more readily than to ectodermal cells at the initial adhesion. The time required for adhesion to occur between two adjacent cells is shorter for both endodermal and ectodermal homotypic cell adhesions once the initial adhesion of the first pair of cells has been established. It is confirmed that contact of an aggregated pair with additional homotypic cells facilitates the occurrence of homotypic adhesions; heterotypic adhesions are discouraged. This suggests that adhesion of homotypic cells contributes to an increased readiness for subsequent homotypic cells to adhere. Received: 25 August 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 11 January 2000     

Ecological restoration as a strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change: lessons and challenges from Brazil

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. The agreement requires all Parties to submit their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead. Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Extensive tropical forest loss and degradation have increased awareness at the international level of the need to undertake large-scale ecological restoration, highlighting the need to identify cases in which restoration strategies can contribute to mitigation and adaptation. Here we consider Brazil as a case study to evaluate the benefits and challenges of implementing large-scale restoration programs in developing countries. The Brazilian NDC included the target of restoring and reforesting 12 million hectares of forests for multiple uses by 2030. Restoration of native vegetation is one of the foundations of sustainable rural development in Brazil and should consider multiple purposes, from biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation to social and economic development. However, ecological restoration still presents substantial challenges for tropical and mega-diverse countries, including the need to develop plans that are technically and financially feasible, as well as public policies and monitoring instruments that can assess effectiveness. The planning, execution, and monitoring of restoration efforts strongly depend on the context and the diagnosis of the area with respect to reference ecosystems (e.g., forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands). In addition, poor integration of climate change policies at the national and subnational levels and with other sectorial policies constrains the large-scale implementation of restoration programs. The case of Brazil shows that slowing deforestation is possible; however, this analysis highlights the need for increased national commitment and international support for actions that require large-scale transformations of the forest sector regarding ecosystem restoration efforts. Scaling up the ambitions and actions of the Paris Agreement implies the need for a global framework that recognizes landscape restoration as a cost-effective nature-based solution and that supports countries in addressing their remaining needs, challenges, and barriers.

     

First trimester maternal serum placenta growth factor (PIGF)concentrations in pregnancies with fetal trisomy 21 or trisomy 18

Placenta growth factor (PIGF), an angiogenic factor belonging to the vascular endothelial growth factor family, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG) were measured in maternal serum from 45 pregnancies with trisomy 21, 45 with trisomy 18 and 493 normal controls at 10–13 completed weeks of gestation. In the normal pregnancies maternal serum PIGF levels increased exponentially with gestation. The median multiple of the median (MoM) PIGF concentration in the trisomy 21 group (1.26 MoM) was significantly higher (p<0.0001) than in the control group (1.00 MoM). In the trisomy 18 group the median PIGF was lower (0.889 MoM) but this did not quite reach significance (p=0.064). The corresponding median MoM values for PAPP-A were 1.00 MoM for the controls, 0.49 MoM for trisomy 21 and 0.16 MoM for trisomy 18. The median MoM values for free β-hCG were 1.00 MoM for the controls, 2.05 MoM for trisomy 21 and 0.38 MoM for trisomy 18. In the control group there was a small but significant correlation of PIGF with free β-hCG (r=+0.1024) and PAPP-A (r=+0.2288). In the trisomy 18 group there was a significant association between PIGF and free β-hCG (r=+0.2629) but not with PAPP-A (r=+0.0038). In the trisomy 21 group there was a small but significant association with PAPP-A (r=+0.1028) but not with free β-hCG (r=+0.0339). The separation of affected and unaffected pregnancies in maternal serum PIGF is small, and therefore it is unlikely that measurement of PIGF would improve screening for these abnormalities provided by the combination of fetal nuchal translucency and maternal serum PAPP-A and free β-hCG. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.