Air Pollution and Mortality: Issues and Uncertainties

Abstract

Results from 31 epidemiology studies linking air pollution with premature mortality are compared and synthesized. Consistent positive associations between mortality and various measures of air pollution have been shown within each of two fundamentally different types of regression studies and in many variations within these basic types; this is extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. In this paper, the measure of risk used is the elasticity, which is a dimensionless regression coefficient defined as the percentage change in the dependent variable associated with a 1% change in an independent variable, evaluated at the means. This metric has the advantage of independence from measurement units and averaging times, and is thus suitable for comparisons within and between studies involving different pollutants. Two basic types of studies are considered: time-series studies involving daily perturbations, and cross-sectional studies involving longer-term spatial gradients. The latter include prospective studies of differences in individual survival rates in different locations and studies of the differences in annual mortality rates for various communities.

For a given data set, time-series regression results will vary according to the seasonal adjustment method used, the covariates included, and the lag structure assumed. The results from both types of cross-sectional regressions are highly dependent on the methods used to control for socioeconomic and personal lifestyle factors and on data quality. Amajor issue for all of these studies is that of partitioning the response among collinear pollution and weather variables. Previous studies showed that the variable with the least exposure measurement error may be favored in multiple regressions; assigning precise numerical results to a single pollutant is not possible under these circumstances. We found that the mean overall elasticity as obtained from timeseries studies for mortality with respect to various air pollutants entered jointly was about 0.048, with a range from 0.01 to 0.12. This implies that about 5% of daily mortality is associated with air pollution, on average. The corresponding values from population-based cross-sectional studies were similar in magnitude, but the results from the three recent prospective studies varied from zero to about five times as much. Long-term responses in excess of short-term responses might be interpreted as showing the existence of chronic effects, but the uncertainties inherent in both types of studies make such an interpretation problematic.     

Seasonal Variations in Aerosol Composition and Acidity at Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks

The concentration of elements Na through Pb, select ions, and organic carbon from fine (<2.5 µm) particles has been monitored at Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks from 1988 through 1995. The data obtained from 1988 through 1994 show that significant changes in the concentrations of many aerosol constituents occur on a seasonal basis. Particulate sulfate and organic carbon are shown to exhibit substantially higher concentrations during the summer, while sulfur dioxide and nitrate concentrations are highest during the winter.

A method for estimating the degree of neutralization of particulate sulfate is given. This method uses routinely measured aerosol elemental compositions because ammonium ion, the primary neutralizing species for sulfate, is not measured on a routine basis. Application of this method to the selected data set shows that sulfate aerosol is most acidic during summer with an average molar H_s (moles of hydrogen associated with sulfur) to S (moles of sulfur) ratio of approximately 4. This suggests the average sulfate particle during the summer has a molar coon slightly more acidic than ammonium bisulfate (NH₄HSO₄) which has a molar hydrogen to sulfur ratio of 5. Winter H_s to S ratios, however, are approximately 8, suggesting the aerosol is on average fully neutralized ammonium sulfate [(NH₄)₂SO₄].     

Influence of Baltimore's Urban Atmosphere on Organic Contaminants over the Northern Chesapeake Bay

ABSTRACT

Air and precipitation samples were collected along an urban to over-water to rural transect across the northern Chesapeake Bay as a preliminary investigation into the spatial extent of elevated atmospheric concentrations of urban-derived persistent organic pollutants. Air samples were collected daily from June 3–9, 1996, along the transect as part of the Atmospheric Exchange over Lakes and Oceans project. Total (gas + particle bound) atmospheric polycy-clic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations [∑-PAH] ranged from 0.4 to 114 ng/m³, and gas phase polychlorinated bi-phenyl concentrations [∑-PCB] ranged from 0.02 to 3.4 ng/m³. Strong concentration gradients were found for both PAHs and PCBs, with the highest concentrations in the city and the lowest at the downwind rural site. Gas and particle bound PAHs varied independently in the city, possibly due to strong but geographically separated emission sources. A precipitation event collected during westerly winds contained fourfold higher ∑-PAH and twelvefold higher ∑-PCB concentrations at the over-water site than at the rural background location, further indicating that the urban plume extends from Baltimore, MD, over the northern Chesapeake Bay over a spatial scale of approximately 30 km.     

Statistical Considerations in Determining the Health Significance of Constituents of Airborne Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Because of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) new ambient air quality standard for fine particles, the need is likely to continue for more detailed scientific investigation of various types of particles and their effects on human health. Epidemiology studies have become the method of choice for investigating health responses to such particles and to other air pollutants in community settings. Health effects have been associated with virtually all of the gaseous criteria pollutants and with the major constituents of airborne particulate matter (PM), including all size fractions less than about 20 gm, inorganic ions, carbonaceous particles, metals, crustal material, and biological aerosols. In many of the more recent studies, multiple pollutants or agents (including weather variables) have been significantly associated with health responses, and various methods have been used to suggest which ones might be the most important. In an ideal situation, classical least-squares regression methods are capable of performing this task. However, in the real world, where most of the pollutants are correlated with one another and have varying degrees of measurement precision and accuracy, such regression results can be misleading. This paper presents some guidelines for dealing with such collinearity and model comparison problems in both single- and multiple-pollutant regressions. These techniques rely on mean effect (attributable risk) rather than statistical significance per se as the preferred indicator of importance for the pollution variables.     

Pilot-Scale Demonstration of an Innovative Treatment for Vapor Emissions

ABSTRACT

Researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory recently conducted a pilot-scale study at McClellan Air Force Base (AFB) in Sacramento, CA. The objective of the test was to determine the effectiveness of an ambient-temperature, solar-powered photocatalytic oxidation treatment unit for destroying emissions of chlorinated organic compounds from an air stripper. This paper reports test results and discusses applications and limitations of the technology.

A 10-standard-cubic-foot-per-minute (SCFM) (28.3 L/min) slip stream of air from an air stripper at Operative Unit 29-31 at McClellan AFB was passed through a reactor that contained a lightweight, perforated, inert support coated with photoactive titanium dioxide. The reactor faced south and was tilted at a 45° angle from vertical so that the light-activated catalyst received most of the available sunlight. An online portable gas chro-matograph with two identical columns simultaneously analyzed the volatile organic compounds contained in the reactor inlet and outlet air streams. Summa canister grab samples of the inlet and outlet were also collected and sent to a certified laboratory for U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency Method TO-14 analysis and verification of our field analyses. Three weeks of testing demonstrated that the treatment system's destruction and removal efficiencies (DREs) are greater than 95% at 10 SCFM with UV intensities at or greater than 1.5 milliwatts/square centimeter (mW/cm²). DREs greater than 95% at 20 SCFM were obtained under conditions where UV irradiation measured at or greater than 2 mW/cm². In Sacramento, this provided 6 hours of operation per clear or nearly clear day in April. A solar tracking system could extend operating time. The air stream also contained trace amounts of benzene. We observed no loss of system performance during testing.     

An Intelligent Emissions Controller for Fuel Lean Gas Reburn in Coal-Fired Power Plants

ABSTRACT

The application of artificial intelligence techniques for performance optimization of the fuel lean gas reburn (FLGR) system is investigated. A multilayer, feedforward artificial neural network is applied to model static nonlinear relationships between the distribution of injected natural gas into the upper region of the furnace of a coal-fired boiler and the corresponding oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emissions exiting the furnace. Based on this model, optimal distributions of injected gas are determined such that the largest NO_x reduction is achieved for each value of total injected gas. This optimization is accomplished through the development of a new optimization method based on neural networks. This new optimal control algorithm, which can be used as an alternative generic tool for solving multidimensional nonlinear constrained optimization problems, is described and its results are successfully validated against an off-the-shelf tool for solving mathematical programming problems. Encouraging results obtained using plant data from one of Commonwealth Edison's coal-fired electric power plants demonstrate the feasibility of the overall approach.

Preliminary results show that the use of this intelligent controller will also enable the determination of the most cost-effective operating conditions of the FLGR system by considering, along with the optimal distribution of the injected gas, the cost differential between natural gas and coal and the open-market price of NO_x emission credits. Further study, however, is necessary, including the construction of a more comprehensive database, needed to develop high-fidelity process models and to add carbon monoxide (CO) emissions to the model of the gas reburn system.     

Estimates of Particle Hygroscopicity during the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study

ABSTRACT

Aerosol water content was determined from relative humidity controlled optical particle counter (ASASP-X) size distribution measurements made during the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study (SEAVS) in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park during summer 1995. Since the scattering response function of the ASASP-X is sensitive to particle refractive index, a technique for calibrating the ASASP-X for any real refractive index was developed. A new iterative process was employed to calculate water mass concentration and wet refractive index as functions of relative humidity. Experimental water mass concentrations were compared to theoretically predicted values assuming only ammonium sulfate compounds were hygroscopic. These comparisons agreed within experimental uncertainty. Estimates of particle hygroscopicity using a rural aerosol model of refractive index as a function of relative humidity demonstrated no significant differences from those made with daily varying refractive index estimates. Although aerosol size parameters were affected by the assumed chemical composition, forming ratios of these parameters nearly canceled these effects.     

Are deep eutectic solvents benign or toxic?

In continuation of investigation for environmentally benign protocol for new solvents termed deep eutectic solvents (DESs), it is herein reported results concerning the toxicity and cytotoxicity of choline chloride (ChCl) based DESs with four hydrogen bond donors including glycerine, ethylene glycol, triethylene glycol and urea. The toxicity was investigated using two Gram positive bacteria Bacillus subtilis and Staphylococcus aureus, and two Gram negative bacteria Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The cytotoxicity effect was tested using the Artemia salina leach. It was found that there was no toxic effect for the tested DESs on all of the studied bacteria confirming their benign effects on these bacteria. Nevertheless, it was found that the cytotoxicity of DESs was much higher than their individual components (e.g. glycerine, ChCl) indicating that their toxicological behavior is different. For our best knowledge this is the first time that toxicity and cytotoxicity of DESs were studied. The toxicity and cytotoxicity of DESs varied depending on the structure of components. Careful usage of the terms non-toxicity and biodegradability must be considered. More investigation on this matter is required.     

A Method of Predicting Point and Path- Averaged Ambient Air VOC Concentrations,Using Meteorological Data

A method of predicting point and path-averaged ambient air VOC concentrations is described. This method was developed for the case of a plume generated from a single point source, and is based on the relationship between wind directional frequency and concentration. One-minute means of wind direction and wind speed were used as inputs to a Gaussian dispersion model to develop this relationship.

Both FTIR spectrometry and a whole-air sampling method were used to monitor VOC plumes during simulated field tests. One test set was also conducted using only whole-air samplers deployed in a closely-spaced network, thus providing an evaluation of the prediction technique free of any bias that might exist between the two analytical methods.

Correlations between observed point concentrations and wind directional frequencies were significant at the 0.05 level in most cases. Predicted path-integrated concentrations, based on observed point concentrations and meteorological data, were strongly correlated with observed values. Predicted point concentrations, based on observed path-integrated concentrations and meteorological data, accurately reflected the location and magnitude of the highest concentrations from each test, as well as the shape of the concentration-versus-crosswind distance curve.