Estimating abundance: a non parametric mark recapture approach for open and closed systems

We present a novel, non-parametric, frequentist approach for capture-recapture data based on a ratio estimator, which offers several advantages. First, as a non-parametric model, it does not require a known underlying distribution for parameters nor the associated assumptions, eliminating the need for post-hoc corrections or additional modeling to account for heterogeneity and other violated assumptions. Second, the model explicitly deals with dependence of trials by considering trials to be dependent; therefore, cluster sampling is handled naturally and additional adjustments are not necessary. Third, it accounts for ordering, utilizing the fact that a system with a small population will have a greater frequency of recaptures “early” in the survey work compared to an identical system with a larger population. We provide mathematical proof that our estimator attains asymptotic minimum variance under open systems. We apply the model to a data set of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and compare results to those from classic closed models. We show that the model has an impressive rate of convergence and demonstrate that there’s an inverse relationship between population size and the proportion of the population that need to be sampled, while achieving the same degree of accuracy for abundance estimates. The model is flexible and can apply to ecological situations as well as other situations that lend themselves to capture recapture sampling.     

N-nitrosodimethylamine and trihalomethane formation and minimisation in Southeast Queensland drinking water

This study assesses the prevalence of disinfection by-product (DBP) precursors in some Southeast Queensland drinking water sources by conducting formation potential experiments for the four regulated trihalomethanes (THMs), and the potent carcinogen, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA). NDMA formation potentials were consistently low (<5-21 ng/L), and total THM (tTHM) formation potentials were consistently below the Australian Drinking Water Guideline (250 μg/L). NDMA concentration of finished drinking waters was also monitored and found to be <5 ng/L in all cases. The effect of coagulation and advanced oxidation on the formation of NDMA and THMs is also reported. UV/H(2)O(2) pre-treatment was effective in producing water with very low THMs concentrations, and UV irradiation was an effective method for NDMA degradation. H(2)O(2) was not required for the observed NDMA degradation to occur. Coagulation using alum, ferric chloride or poly(diallyldimethylammonium chloride) (polyDADMAC) was ineffective in removing DBPs precursors from the source water studied, irrespective of the low dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) attained. Rather, coagulation with polyDADMAC caused an increase in NDMA formation potential upon chloramination, and all coagulants led to an increased tTHM formation potential upon chlorination due to the high bromide concentration of the source water studied.     

Impaired visibility: the air pollution people see

Almost every home and office contains a portrayal of a scenic landscape whether on a calendar, postcard, photograph, or painting. The most sought after locations boast a scenic landscape right outside their window. No matter what the scene – mountains, skyscrapers, clouds, or pastureland – clarity and vividness are essential to the image. Air pollution can degrade scenic vistas, and in extreme cases, completely obscure them. Particulate matter suspended in the air is the main cause of visibility degradation. Particulate matter affects visibility in multiple ways: obscures distant objects, drains the contrast from a scene, and discolors the sky. Visibility is an environmental quality that is valued for aesthetic reasons that are difficult to express or quantify. Human psychology and physiology are sensitive to visual input. Visibility has been monitored throughout the world but there are few places where it is a protected resource. Existing health-based regulations are weak in terms of visibility protection. Various techniques, including human observation, light transmission measurements, digital photography, and satellite imaging, are used to monitor visibility. As with air pollution, trends in visibility vary spatially and temporally. Emissions from the developing world and large scale events such as dust storms and wildfires affect visibility around much of the globe.     

Improving the knowledge of pesticide and nitrate transfer processes using age-dating tools (CFC, SF6, H) in a volcanic island (Martinique, French West Indies)

Numerous successful examples of CFC and SF₆ groundwater dating applications were recently published. However the proposed CFC/SF₆ method needs various hydrodynamic parameters that are not always available. In order to predict groundwater-quality trends in areas where the hydrogeological context is poorly known, a dating method using tritium, CFC and SF₆ was successfully implemented in Martinique. Hydrogeological understanding is limited in this volcanic island where groundwater contamination by pesticides and nitrate has been recently proven in various areas. A negative correlation was observed between nitrate concentrations and groundwater ages while pesticide contamination showed a more complex schema. Consequently the presence of old groundwater clearly explained the absence or low pesticide and nitrate concentrations in some areas. However a possible degradation of the water quality is to be feared in the future. In view of the relatively long transfer times and the complexity of the remobilization processes of solutes, the expected effects of any modifications in the use of fertilizers, or of changes in pesticide-use legislation, would take a long time to become apparent.     

Comparison of vehicle activity and emission inventory between Beijing and Shanghai

Vehicle emission inventory is a critical element for air quality study. This study created systemic methods to establish a vehicle emission inventory in Chinese cities. The methods were used to obtain credible results of vehicle activity in Beijing and Shanghai. On the basis of the vehicle activity data, the International Vehicle Emission model is used to establish vehicle emission inventories. The emissions analysis indicates that 3 t of particulate matter (PM), 199 t of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), 192 t of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and 2403 t of carbon monoxide (CO) are emitted from on-road vehicles each day in Beijing, whereas 4 t of PM, 189 t of NO(x), 113 t of VOCs, and 1009 t of CO are emitted in Shanghai. Although common features were found in these two cities (many new passenger cars and a high taxi proportion in the fleet), the emission results are dissimilar because of the different local policy regarding vehicles. The method to quantify vehicle emission on an urban scale can be applied to other Chinese cities. Also, knowing how different policies can lead to diverse emissions is beneficial knowledge for other city governments.     

Consistency of defoliation data of the national training courses for the forest condition survey in Germany from 1992 to 2012

The consistency of visual assessment of tree defoliation, which represents the most widely used indicator for tree condition, has frequently been in the focus of scientific criticism. Thus, the objective of the present study was to examine the consistency of the defoliation data from the annual national training courses for the forest condition survey in Germany from 1992 to 2012. Defoliation assessments were carried out in stands of beech (Fagus sylvatica), oak (Quercus robur and Quercus petraea), Norway spruce (Picea abies), and pine (Pinus sylvestris). Among the observer teams, the absolute deviation from the observer mean of all years was ±4.4 % defoliation and the standard deviation of defoliation was ±5.5 %. On average, 94 % of the assessments were located within the ±10 % interval of deviation from the mean. Tree species-specific differences did not occur when all years were considered. A trend towards increasing consistency was observed from 1992 to 2012, in particular for oak and spruce. The deviation of defoliation assessments depended non-linearly on the level of defoliation with highest deviations at intermediate defoliations. In spite of high correlations and agreements among observers, systematic errors were determined in nearly every year. However, within-observer variances were higher than between-observer variances. The present study applied a three-way evaluation approach for the assessment of consistency and demonstrated that the visual defoliation assessment at the national training courses in general produced consistent data within Germany from 1992 to 2012.     

Trends analysis of ambient 8 hour ozone and precursor monitoring data in the south central U.S

For the south central U.S., lower tropospheric ozone pollution has been a persistent and challenging problem. This paper provides long-term trends analyses of the ozone and precursor monitoring data collected over the past 20 years in four south central U.S. cities. The results of these analyses should be useful to air quality scientists, managers, planners, and modelers in assessing the effectiveness of ozone pollution control strategies being implemented or being planned for the future. Results of the data analyses show that all areas have monitored significant decreases in ozone and precursor concentrations over the past 20 years, especially in El Paso, Texas. Continuing challenges include the reduction of the percentage of time that monitors record 8 hour ozone concentrations over the U.S. 8 hour ozone standard, and the future control of highly reactive volatile organic compounds.     

Polynomial Surrogates for Open-Channel Flows in Random Steady State

Assessing epistemic uncertainties is considered as a milestone for improving numerical predictions of a dynamical system. In hydrodynamics, uncertainties in input parameters translate into uncertainties in simulated water levels through the shallow water equations. We investigate the ability of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) surrogate to evaluate the probabilistic features of water level simulated by a 1-D hydraulic model (MASCARET) with the same accuracy as a classical Monte Carlo method but at a reduced computational cost. This study highlights that the water level probability density function and covariance matrix are better estimated with the polynomial surrogate model than with a Monte Carlo approach on the forward model given a limited budget of MASCARET evaluations. The gPC-surrogate performance is first assessed on an idealized channel with uniform geometry and then applied on the more realistic case of the Garonne River (France) for which a global sensitivity analysis using sparse least-angle regression was performed to reduce the size of the stochastic problem. For both cases, Galerkin projection approximation coupled to Gaussian quadrature that involves a limited number of forward model evaluations is compared with least-square regression for computing the coefficients when the surrogate is parameterized with respect to the local friction coefficient and the upstream discharge. The results showed that a gPC-surrogate with total polynomial degree equal to 6 requiring 49 forward model evaluations is sufficient to represent the water level distribution (in the sense of the \(\ell _2\) norm), the probability density function and the water level covariance matrix for further use in the framework of data assimilation. In locations where the flow dynamics is more complex due to bathymetry, a higher polynomial degree is needed to retrieve the water level distribution. The use of a surrogate is thus a promising strategy for uncertainty quantification studies in open-channel flows and should be extended to unsteady flows. It also paves the way toward cost-effective ensemble-based data assimilation for flood forecasting and water resource management.