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The Science of Nature -     

Future research directions and data requirements for developing ambient ozone guidelines or standards for agroecosystems

The ambient air quality in Central Europe appears to have the potential to adversely affect the productivity of the agroecosystems in that geographic area. Therefore, there is a need to develop, validate, and apply air pollutant exposure-plant response models to explain the relationships between the stochastic chemical climate and ecosystem responses. Such models will have to include numerical terms for the effective air pollutant exposure regime to account for the fluxes of matter, energy and information within the ecosystem and its components. The structure and function of the ecosystem which are influenced by the air pollutant flux can be described by a combination of empirical and mechanistic models. A discussion of such an approach is presented in this paper.     

Air pollution and diseases of the respiratory tracts in pre-school children: A transfer function model

The purpose of the present statistical analysis was the assessment of the relation between time series of environmental factors and of frequencies of diseases of the respiratory system in pre-school children. During about one year, daily measurements of air pollutants and climatic variables were taken. During the same period of time two series of medical data were collected: (i) The daily relative number of pre-school children, exhibiting diseases of the respiratory tracts who either came to the outpatients' clinic of the children's hospital or were reported by paediatricians in Basle (ENTRIES). (ii) The daily relative frequency of symptoms of the respiratory tracts observed in a group of randomly selected pre-school children (SYMPTOMS).By means of transfer function models the relation between the two target variables and the explaining variables was analysed. Several practical problems did arise: Choice of the appropriate transformation of the different series, interpretation of the crosscorrelation function using different methods of prewhitening, time splitting and nonstationarity of the crosscorrelation structure. In particular, it was found that after prewhitening the crosscorrelation function between the explanatory series SO₂ and the response series SYMPTOMS changes with time. While during the winter period an instantaneous relation between these two series (and to a lesser extent between NO₂ and SYMPTOMS) was identified, no such relation was found for the other seasons.     

Possibilities and limitations in cancer prevention

The possibilities and limitations in cancer prevention are shown by means of some examples and historical facts. A necessary prerequisite for effective prevention is to know the exact cause of cancer. This is known for some tumor types (e.g., bronchial cancer), while for others it is hardly known (e.g., breast cancer). There are many factors which influence the whole process of carcinogenesis. Exposure to environmental pollutants in a wide sense represents only one of many possible etiologies. This has to be taken into consideration.     

Early prenatal diagnosis of cartilage-hair hypoplasia (CHH) with polymorphic DNA markers

Cartilage-hair hypoplasia (CHH) is an autosomal recessive disorder resulting in short stature and hypoplasia of hair. Associated features include impaired T-cell-mediated immunity, deficient erythropoiesis, gastrointestinal dysfunction, and an increased risk of malignancies. As the condition may, in some cases, be severe or even fatal during childhood, families with a previous history of CHH may wish to have prenatal diagnosis. We have previously assigned the gene for CHH to the proximal 9p by linkage analysis using several polymorphic DNA markers. Here we report the prenatal testing for CHH in three Finnish and one Australian family using three DNA markers closely linked to the CHH gene. In three cases a fetus unaffected with CHH was predicted at the probability level of more than 94 per cent. In one case, an affected fetus was predicted. The results were in concordance with ultrasonography performed for all fetuses. The three children born to date were unaffected as predicted. The DNA marker-based analysis thus provides a useful method for early prenatal testing for CHH.     

From critical levels to critical loads for ozone: a discussion of a new experimental and modelling approach for establishing flux-response relationships for agricultural crops and native plant species

Present critical levels for ozone (O3) for protecting vegetation against adverse effects are based on exposure-response relationships mainly derived from open-top chamber experiments and are expressed as an Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40). In that context with a revision of the UN (United Nations)-ECE (Economic Commission for Europe) Gothenburg protocol, AOT40 values should be replaced by flux-oriented quantities, i.e. in the end by critical loads. At present, the database for the derivation of critical loads for O3 is extremely inadequate. Furthermore, the currently available flux-response relationships are also derived from open-top chamber experiments. The use of a relationship for spring wheat in a risk assessment for an agricultural site in Hesse, Germany, demonstrates in principle, the applicability of the critical load concept for O3. Comparisons of diurnal variation of stomatal uptake and AOT40 showed that a major part of toxicologically effective stomatal uptake occurred before noon whereas the AOT40 values were dominated by the O3 concentrations during afternoon. In other words, the AOT40 exposure index do not adequately address the O3 burden during hours when plants are sensitive to O3 uptake. However, due to the differences in radiation, air temperature and humidity between the chamber and the ambient microclimates, a derivation of flux-response relationships from chamber experiments is likely to be questionable, especially for species rich ecosystems: Here, without any changes in the pollution climate, significant modifications of species composition as well as an earlier beginning of the growing season has been previously observed. To overcome the problems associated with chamber-derived flux-response relationships, a new experimental and modelling concept, was developed. The approach, briefly described in this paper, combines methods in air pollution toxicology and micrometeorology. As an analogy to the free-air fumigation concept, O3 is released into the air by an injection system above the plant canopy. The assessment of dispersion and surface deposition of O3 released is based on Lagrangian trajectory modelling. Depending on wind direction and velocity, atmospheric stratification and surface roughness, without any disturbance of the microclimate and micrometeorology, several sub-areas can be identified around the source position with differing deposition rates above the ambient level. Taking into account the actual O3 background deposition, deposition rates and vegetation responses observed in these sub-areas can easily be used to derive flux-effect relationships under ambient conditions and more realistic limiting values to protect our environment.