Statistical Simulation to Estimate Uncertain Behavioral Parameters of Hybrid Energy-Economy Models

In energy-economy modeling, new hybrid models attempt to combine the technological explicitness of bottom-up models with the macroeconomic feedbacks and statistically estimated behavioral parameters of top-down models. However, statistical estimation of behavioral parameters (portraying firm and household technology choices) with such models is challenged by the number of uncertain variables and the lack of historical data on technologies in terms of capital costs, operating costs, and market shares. Multiple combinations of parameter values might equally explain past technology choices. This paper reports on the application of a Bayesian statistical simulation approach for estimating the most likely values for these key behavioral parameters in order to best explain past technology choices and then simulate policies to influence future technology choices. The method included (1) data collection of key technology market shares, capital costs, and operating costs over the past; (2) backcasting a hybrid energy-economy model over a historical time period; and (3) the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical simulation using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm as a tool for estimating distributions for key parameters in the model. The results provide a means of indicating the uncertainty bounds around key behavioral parameters when generating forecasts of the effect of certain policies. However, the results also indicate that this approach may have limited applicability, given that future available technologies may differ substantially from past technologies and that it is difficult to separate the effects of parameter uncertainty from model structure uncertainty.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Venturi Scrubber Performance

The object of this program was to study particle collection efficiency in venturi scrubbers in order to account for the effects of particle size and wettability, venturi size, and fluid flow rates. The body of information is directed to those interested in the prediction of particle collection efficiency in venturi scrubbers.     

Acid Particles and the Tracheobronchial Region of the Respiratory System—An “Irritation-Signaling” Model for Possible Health Effects

This paper explores some detailed mechanistic hypotheses for the possible action of acid particles on the tracheobronchial region of the human respiratory system. Because of the buffering capacity and volume of mucus produced per day it appears doubtful that ordinary ambient exposures to acid particles could markedly change the overall pH of tracheobronchial mucus considered as a whole. However it is possible that individual acidic particles could contain enough acid to deliver localized “irritant signals” that could be the triggers for enhanced mucus secretion and cell division in sensitive portions of the bronchial tree, and thereby contribute to the processes involved in chronic bronchitis.

Depending on the exact pH depression required for a “signal” to be perceived by the tracheobronchial epithelium, the acid content of the incoming particles per unit weight, and the effect of neutralization by ammonia in the upper respiratory tract, the minimum size of an acidic particle required to deliver a perceptible signal might range from about 0.4 to 0.7 microns for portions of the epithelium that are frequently swept by 4-micron mucus droplets. (For unprotected epithelium, however, it is conceivable that the minimum effective size for acid particles could be less.) Since particle number per unit weight declines dramatically with increasing particle size, the most potent fraction of particles in terms of signals delivered per μg/m³is likely to be just above the minimum size that is needed to produce an effective signal. The model developed here makes predictions of the relative potency of particles of different size and acid delivery capacity that could be tested in both experimental animal systems and human epidemiological studies.     

Predicting Pressure Loss for Pulse Jet Filters

The analysis of pressure loss characteristics for pulse jet filters suggests that the relationship between dust adhesion to the fabric and the opposing force generated by pulse jet action plays a major role in dust removal. Hence, fabric cleanability is examined in terms of the adhesion-cohesion forces bonding the dust to the fabric vs. the intensity and frequency of the dust dislodgement forces produced by the high energy air pulses. The effect of jet size and location, jet air volume, and the intensity (pressure) and duration of the jet pulses is related to operating pressure loss.

The mechanics of energy transfer from the jet pulse to the dustladen fabric are explored in terms of jet pressure, solenoid valve action, the ratio of delivered pulse air volume to bag (tube) volume, and the elastic and flex properties of the felt bags. Effective and actual fabric dust holdings before and after cleaning are discussed with respect to steady-state dust deposition and removal rates, and operating pressure losses. Finally, predictive equations are proposed for estimating pressure loss over a broad range of design and operating parameters.     

New and versatile optical-immunoassay instrumentation for water monitoring

This article is a review of new and versatile optical-immunoassay instrumentation for water monitoring developed through two European Union projects, RIver ANAlyser (RIANA) and Automated Water Analyser Computer Supported System (AWACSS). Both projects utilise immunoassay techniques to isolate the analytes and Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF) to quantify them. Completed in 1999, the RIANA project developed a sensitive and cost-effective analytical system capable of simultaneous detection of multiple-analytes in real-world water samples. The AWACSS project has been in progress since 2001 and is developing rugged-but-sensitive instrumentation that will detect up to 30 analytes simultaneously, will operate unattended, and will have networking capability.     

The potential for combining indigenous and western knowledge in reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards in small island developing states

The benefits of indigenous knowledge within disaster risk reduction are gradually being acknowledged and identified. However, despite this acknowledgement there continues to be a gap in reaching the right people with the correct strategies for disaster risk reduction.This paper identifies the need for a specific framework identifying how indigenous and western knowledge may be combined to mitigate against the intrinsic effects of environmental processes and therefore reduce the vulnerability of rural indigenous communities in small island developing states (SIDS) to environmental hazards. This involves a review of the impacts of environmental processes and their intrinsic effects upon rural indigenous communities in SIDS and how indigenous knowledge has contributed to their coping capacity. The paper concludes that the vulnerability of indigenous communities in SIDS to environmental hazards can only be addressed through the utilisation of both indigenous and Western knowledge in a culturally compatible and sustainable manner.     

Pilot‐scale evaluation using bioaugmentation to enhance PCE dissolution at dover AFB national test site

An Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council (ITRC) forum was recently held that focused on six case studies in which bioremediation of dense nonaqueous‐phase liquids (DNAPLs) was performed; the objective was to demonstrate that there is credible evidence for bioremediation as a viable environmental remediation technology. The first two case studies from the forum have been previously published; this third case study involves a pilot‐scale demonstration that investigated the effects of biological activity on enhancing dissolution of an emplaced tetrachloroethene (PCE) DNAPL source. It used a controlled‐release test cell with PCE as the primary DNAPL in a porous media groundwater system. Both laboratory tests and a field‐scale pilot test demonstrated that bioaugmentation can stimulate complete dechlorination to a nontoxic end product and that the mass flux from a source zone increases when biological dehalorespiration activity is enhanced through nutrient (electron donor) addition and bioaugmentation. All project goals were met. Important achievements include demonstrating the ability to degrade a PCE DNAPL source to ethene and obtaining significant information on the impacts to the microbial populations and corresponding isotope enrichments during biodegradation of a source area. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.