Uncertainty in epidemiology and health risk and impact assessment

Environmental epidemiology and health risk and impact assessment have long grappled with problems of uncertainty in data and their relationships. These uncertainties have become more challenging because of the complex, systemic nature of many of the risks. A clear framework defining and quantifying uncertainty is needed. Three dimensions characterise uncertainty: its nature, its location and its level. In terms of its nature, uncertainty can be both intrinsic and extrinsic. The former reflects the effects of complexity, sparseness and nonlinearity; the latter arises through inadequacies in available observational data, measurement methods, sampling regimes and models. Uncertainty occurs in three locations: conceptualising the problem, analysis and communicating the results. Most attention has been devoted to characterising and quantifying the analysis—a wide range of statistical methods has been developed to estimate analytical uncertainties and model their propagation through the analysis. In complex systemic risks, larger uncertainties may be associated with conceptualisation of the problem and communication of the analytical results, both of which depend on the perspective and viewpoint of the observer. These imply using more participatory approaches to investigation, and more qualitative measures of uncertainty, not only to define uncertainty more inclusively and completely, but also to help those involved better understand the nature of the uncertainties and their practical implications.     

Numerical and field investigation of enhanced in situ denitrification in a shallow-zone well-to-well recirculation system

This study investigated efficiency of in situ enhanced biological denitrification of nitrate-contaminated groundwater which employs a well-to-well circulation in a shallow zone where oxygen might give an adverse affect on the denitrification processes. The numerical model developed for the efficiency test included sequential aerobic and nitrate-based respiration, multi-Monod kinetics of reactive components, growth and decay of biomass, and denitrification inhibition associated with the presence of oxygen. Moreover, reaction kinetics for production of toxic intermediates such as nitrite and nitrous oxide were also included in the model. The developed model was applied to the analysis of enhanced in situ denitrification using an injection/extraction well pair. To evaluate the relative remediation effectiveness, comparisons were made between a continuous fumarate injection test (CFIT) system and a pulsed fumarate injection test (PFIT) system, where both systems had the same total fumarate mass injected into the aquifer. The PFIT system was preferable to the CFIT system because of the high possibility of occurrence of clogging in the latter case at the injection well, with no other significant advantages found in either the CFIT or the PFIT system. Accordingly, this developed numerical model is useful to predict and evaluate an in situ bioremediation by denitrification in aquifers.     

Performance evaluation of NOAA-EPA developmental aerosol forecasts

To aid air quality model development and assess air quality forecasts, the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) provided categorical verification metrics for developmental aerosol predictions. The National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) generated 48 h (of) gridded hourly developmental predictions for the lower 48 states (CONUS) domain in 12 km horizontal spacing. The NAQFC uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model with EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to produce predictions of ground level aerosol concentrations. We used bilinear interpolation to calculate predicted daily maximum values at the location of the observation sites. We compared these interpolated predicted values to the observed daily maximum to produce 2 × 2 contingency tables, with a threshold of 40 μg/m³ during the months of March–August, 2007. The model showed some degree of skill in predicting aerosol exceedances. These results are preliminary as the NAQFC model for aerosol prediction is in the developmental stage. A more comprehensive performance evaluation will be accomplished in 2008, when more data become available. Our verification metrics included categorical analyses for Fraction Correct (FC) or percent correct (FC × 100), Threat Score (TS) or Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), and the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean algebraic error or bias, where bias is forecast minus observation. Graphic products included weekly statistics for the CONUS displayed in the form of bar charts, scatterplots, and graphs. In addition, we split the CONUS into six geographic regions and provided regional statistics on a monthly basis. MDL produced spatial maps of daily 1-h maximum predicted aerosol values overlaid with the corresponding point observations. MDL also provided spatial maps of the daily maximum of the 24-h running average. We derived the 24-h running average from the 1-h average predicted aerosol values and observations.     

Evaluation of wind environment around a residential complex using a PIV velocity field measurement technique

Wind-tunnel simulations were employed to evaluate the wind environment around a tested residential area located near industrial complexes. The scaled-down geomorphological model of the test area was placed in the test section of a boundary layer wind tunnel. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements were made in five vertical planes and one horizontal plane around the test area for two prevailing wind directions. The results showed that the wind speed decreased in the near surface layer and the velocity fluctuations increased in the upper region due to the presence of hills and high-rise buildings around the test area. Regions of flow separation and low-speed flow were found inside the test area for both the wind directions. The result suggests that the high-rise buildings should be well arranged with respect to the main wind directions to increase the natural ventilation inside the residential complex at the initial design stage.     

Ontogeny of early diving and foraging behavior of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) pups from Bering Island,Russia

The ontogeny of diving and foraging behavior of northern fur seal pups from a stable population on Bering Island, Russia, was recorded with animal-borne instruments during their first few months at sea, a critical period during their first year at sea. Thirty-five pups were instrumented with satellite-linked time-depth recorders and stomach temperature pills. Diving occurred predominantly at night with deeper and longer dives as the pups matured. Mean dive depths were correlated with lunar illumination, whereas mean dive durations were also correlated with time of day and sex. Foraging success did not differ between sexes, and there was no relationship between meal size (as indicated by feeding event duration and minimum stomach temperature) and lunar illumination fraction or maximum foraging depth. Although most pups were able to successfully forage within 3 days of starting their migration, the number of feeding events recorded each day remained low (mean 1.6 events day^?1). There was no indication of an appreciable increase in meal size after the first 2 weeks of the migration despite an increase in dive frequency and depth. The results are consistent with observations that pups do not gain mass during their first year and emphasize the risk of starvation from infrequent foraging in cold water.     

Aggressive male mating behavior depends on female maturity in Octopus bimaculoides

This laboratory study examined the combined effects of male and female behaviors on the outcome of mating encounters in Octopus bimaculoides. We found that male–male competition for mating opportunities depends on female maturity; the presence of immature females elicited significantly higher levels of aggression between competing males. We conclude that males are able to assess the reproductive status of females. The study also found that immature and mature females resisted male mating attempts to a similar extent but that males that showed more aggression toward male competitors were able to spend more time in contact with females. We suggest that the lack of prominent visual displays in these mating trials indicates the importance of chemical cues in Octopus mating systems, as has been demonstrated for other cephalopods. This study contributes to the growing research on cephalopod mating systems and in particular shows that Octopus mating dynamics may be more behaviorally complex than initially assumed.     

Removal of hazardous heavy metals from aqueous environment by low-cost adsorption materials

The rapid growth of the human population and industrialization in the world has indirectly increased environmental problems such as water, air and land pollution. Amongst all, heavy metals can be considered as the most problematic pollutants. Numerous efforts have been attempted to minimize the impact of heavy metals. This chapter discusses the recent developments and technical applicability of different treatment methods for heavy metal removal. The adsorption process using various low-cost materials as the potential alternative for heavy metal removal is being highlighted and summarized.     

Assessment of the stabilization of heavy metal contaminants in soils using chemical leaching and an earthworm bioassay

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Soil stabilization is a remedial technique that reduces the exposure of the soil environment to soil contaminants. Its efficacy can be assessed by...     

Characteristics of metal contamination in paddy soils from three industrial cities in South Korea

Paddy soil contamination is directly linked to human dietary exposure to toxic chemicals via crop consumption. In Korea, rice paddy fields are often located around industrial complexes, a major anthropogenic source of metals. In this study, rice paddy soils were collected from 50 sites in three industrial cities to investigate the contamination characteristics and ecological risk of metals in the soils. The cities studied and their major industries are as follows: Ulsan (petrochemical, nonferrous, automobile, and shipbuilding), Pohang (iron and steel), and Gwangyang (iron and steel, nonmetallic, and petrochemical). Thirteen metals (Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn) were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectrometry (ICP–OES). The mean concentration of Cd (1.98 mg/kg) exceeded the soil quality guideline of Canada (1.4 mg/kg), whereas concentrations of other metals were under the standards of both Korea and Canada. Generally, levels of metal concentrations decreased with increasing distance from industrial complexes. Among the three cities, Pohang showed high concentrations of Zn (142.2 mg/kg), and Ulsan and Gwangyang showed high concentrations of Cr (33.9 mg/kg) and Ba (126.4 mg/kg), respectively. These contamination patterns were influenced by the different major industries of each city, which was clearly demonstrated by the principal component analysis results. Pollution indices suggested that As, Cd, Pb, and Zn were enriched in the paddy soils via anthropogenic activities. Comprehensive potential ecological risk indices were at considerable levels for most sites, especially because of major contributions from As and Cd, which can pose potential ecological threats.

     

Submerged arc plasma system combined with ozone oxidation for the treatment of wastewater containing non-degradable organic compounds

• Submerged arc plasma was introduced in terms of wastewater treatment. • Ozone oxidation was coupled with submerged arc plasma system. • Ozone was converted into O and O₂ by submerged arc plasma. • Decomposition rate was accelerated by submerged arc plasma. • Introduction of ozone led to significant increase in mineralization. Submerged arc plasma technology was assessed for the removal of phenols from wastewater. The OH radicals generated from the boundary between the plasma and waste solution were considered as a significant factor on the degradation reaction. In this study, the effects of highly energetic electrons released from the submerged arc plasma were mainly studied. The highly energetic electrons directly broke the strong chemical bond and locally increased the reaction temperatures in solution. The effects of the submerged-arc plasma on the decomposition of phenol are discussed in terms of the input energy and initial concentration. The single use of submerged arc plasma easily decomposed the phenol but did not increase the mineralization efficiency. Therefore, the submerged arc plasma, coupled with the ozone injection, was investigated. The submerged arc plasma combined with ozone injection had a synergic effect, which led to significant improvements in mineralization with only a small increase in input energy. The decomposition mechanism of phenol by the submerged arc plasma with the ozone was analyzed.