Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.     

Emission database for global atmospheric research (Edgar)

Atmospheric chemistry and climate modellers require gridded global emissions data as input into their models. To meet this urgent need a global emissions source database called EDGAR is being developed by TNO and RIVM to estimate for 1990, on a regional and on a grid basis, annual emissions of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CO, NO_x, non-methane VOC, SO_x), of NH₃, and of ozone depleting compounds (halocarbons) from all known sources. The aim is to establish at due levels of spatial, temporal and source aggregation the emissions from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources: a complete set of data required to estimate the total source strength of the various gases with a 1×1 ° resolution (altitude resolution of 1 km) and a temporal resolution of a month, supplemented by diurnal variation, as agreed upon in the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) of the International Atmospheric Chemistry Programme (IGAC). In this way EDGAR will meet the requirements of present and future developments in the field of atmospheric modelling. The data comprise demographic data, social and economic factors, land use distributions and emission factors (with due emphasis on the uncertainty). As understanding in this field is still changing, due attention is paid to flexibility regarding the disaggregation of sources, spatial and temporal resolution and species. The objective and methodology chosen for the construction of the database and the structural design of the database system are presented, as well as the type and sources of data and the approach used for data collection. As an example, the construction of the N₂O inventory is discussed.     

喀斯特城市湖库pCO2及CO2通量空间格局研究

为探索典型喀斯特城市湖库二氧化碳分压（pCO₂）及其交换通量（F）空间格局,以我国贵阳市阿哈湖水库（AHa）、松柏山水库（SBS）、百花湖（BHH）和红枫湖（HFH）为对象,探索了区域气象水文基础数据、碳酸盐平衡参数及环境因子,进而评估表层水体pCO₂及其F空间变化.结果表明,受原位新陈代谢和水文调节,AHa的pCO₂为（861.6±462.8）μatm,显著高于SBS （223.6±213.1）μatm、BHH （139.3±63.6）μatm和HFH （126.2±50.9）μatm （P<0.05）,且各湖库水-气界面二氧化碳（CO₂）交换速率（k值）在（2.05~3.82） cm/h范围内.AHa的F值为（6.23±9.59） mmol/（m²·d）,具有向大气排放CO₂的潜力;SBS、BHH和HFH的F值分别为（-5.86±5.25） mmol/（m²×d）、（-8.63±1.03） mmol/（m²·d）和（-7.58±1.10） mmol/（m²·d）,表现为大气CO₂汇.湖库表层水体pCO₂与环境因子叶绿素a （Chla）和氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）具有显著相关性（P<0.05）,说明喀斯特湖库碳酸盐耦合光合作用和人为输入极大影响了水体CO₂量级.     

A three-dimensional experimental investigation of the structure of the spanwise vortex generated by a shallow vortex dipole

The three-dimensional dynamics of shallow vortex dipoles is investigated by means of an innovative three-dimensional, three-component (3D-3C) scanning PIV technique. In particular, the three-dimensional structure of a frontal spanwise vortex is characterized. The technique allows the computation of the three-dimensional pressure field and the planar (x, y) distribution of the wall shear stress, which are not available using standard 2D PIV measurements. The influence of such a complex vortex structure on mass transport is discussed in the context of the available pressure and wall shear stress fields.     

Conservation overstretch and long-term decline of wildlife and tourism in the Central African savannas

When in 2010 the world's governments pledged to increase protected area coverage to 17% of the world's land surface, several Central African countries had already set aside 25% of their northern savannas for conservation. To evaluate the effectiveness of this commitment, we analyzed the results of 68 multispecies surveys conducted in the seven main savanna national parks in Central Africa (1960–2017). We also assembled information on potential drivers of large herbivore population trends (rainfall and number of rangers) and on tourist numbers and revenues. In six out of the seven parks, wild large herbivore populations declined dramatically over time, livestock numbers increased severalfold, and tourism, the pillar under a once thriving local wildlife industry, collapsed. Zakouma National Park (Chad) stood out because its large herbivore populations increased, an increase that was positively correlated with rainfall and number of rangers (a proxy for management inputs). With increasing insecurity and declining revenues, governments find themselves confronted with too few resources to protect vast areas. To deal with this conversation overstretch, we propose to extend the repeatedly promoted solutions––scaled up funding, enhanced management––with a strategic retreat, focusing scarce resources on smaller areas to save wildlife in the Central African savannas.     

Pesticide resurrection

Environmental Chemistry Letters -     

Effect of substrate properties and phosphorus supply on facilitating the uptake of rare earth elements (REE) in mixed culture cropping systems of Hordeum vulgare,Lupinus albus and Lupinus angustifolius

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - This study presents how phosphate (P) availability and intercropping may influence the migration of rare earth elements (REEs) in legume–grass...