Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

The New Zealand experience of varroa invasion highlights research opportunities for Australia

The Varroa mite (Varroa destructor) is implicated as a major disease factor in honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations worldwide. Honey bees are extensively relied upon for pollination services, and in countries such as New Zealand and Australia where honey bees have been introduced specifically for commercial pollinator services, the economic effects of any decline in honey bee numbers are predicted to be profound. V. destructor established in New Zealand in 2000 but as yet, Australia remains Varroa-free. Here we analyze the history of V. destructor invasion and spread in New Zealand and discuss the likely long-term impacts. When the mite was discovered in New Zealand, it was considered too well established for eradication to be feasible. Despite control efforts, V. destructor has since spread throughout the country. Today, assessing the impacts of the arrival of V. destructor in this country is compromised by a paucity of data on pollinator communities as they existed prior to invasion. Australia’s Varroa-free status provides a rare and likely brief window of opportunity for the global bee research community to gain understanding of honey bee-native pollinator community dynamics prior to Varroa invasion.     

Evaluating anthropogenic N inputs to diverse lake basins: A case study of three Chinese lakes

The environmental degradation of lakes in China has become increasingly serious over the last 30 years and eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs is considered a top threat. In this study, a quasi-mass balance method, net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI), was introduced to assess the human influence on N input into three typical Chinese lake basins. The resultant NANI exceeded 10 000 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ for all three basins, and mineral fertilizers were generally the largest sources. However, rapid urbanization and shrinking agricultural production capability may significantly increase N inputs from food and feed imports. Higher percentages of NANI were observed to be exported at urban river outlets, suggesting the acceleration of NANI transfer to rivers by urbanization. Over the last decade, the N inputs have declined in the basins dominated by the fertilizer use but have increased in the basins dominated by the food and feed import. In the foreseeable future, urban areas may arise as new hotspots for nitrogen in China while fertilizer use may decline in importance in areas of high population density.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0638-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Geogenic Distribution of Arsenic (As) and Antimony (Sb) in Soils of the Murcia Region in Spain

The objective of this study was to determine the As and Sb contents in soils from the Murcia Region of Spain and the possible relationship between the mineralogical composition, soil properties, and As and Sb concentrations. In this study, 490 samples were selected from areas with different characteristics in order to study As and Sb variability. Results show that As and Sb concentrations are positively correlated with the phyllosilicate and quartz content but negatively correlated with the calcite content. The generic reference level (GRL) for these elements was determined according to the Spanish legislation. Established GRL values vary according to the established mineralogical groups, suggesting that GRL has to be determined considering the lithological characteristics of the study area.     

Synthesis,Characterization and Nanocomposite Formation of Poly(glycerol succinate-co-maleate) with Nanocrystalline Cellulose

A novel biodegradable polymer based on glycerol, succinic anhydride and maleic anhydride, poly(glycerol succinate-co-maleate), poly(GlySAMA), was synthesized by melt polycondensation and tested as a matrix for composites with nanocrystalline cellulose. This glycerol-based polymer is thermally stable as a consequence of its targeted cross-linked structure. To broaden its range of properties, it was specifically formulated with nanocrystalline cellulose (NCC) at concentrations of 1, 2 and 4 wt%, and showed improved mechanical properties with NCC. Specifically, the effect of reinforcement on mechanical properties, thermal stability, structure, and biodegradability was evaluated, respectively, by tensile tests and thermogravimetric analyses, X-ray diffraction and respirometry. The neat poly(GlySAMA) polymer proved flexible, exhibiting an elongation-to-break of 8.8 % while the addition of nanowhiskers (at 4 wt%) caused tensile strength and Young’s modulus to increase, 20 and 40 %, respectively. Stiffness improved without significantly decreasing thermal stability as measured by thermogravimetric analysis. Biodegradation tests indicated that all samples were degradable but NCC reduced the rate of biodegradation.     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Dioxin-like activity in sediments from Tai Lake, China determined by use of the H4IIE-luc bioassay and quantification of individual AhR agonists

Deterioration of the general ecosystem and specifically quality of the water in Tai Lake (Ch: Taihu), the third largest freshwater in China, is of great concern. However, knowledge on status and trends of dioxin-like compounds in Tai Lake was limited. This study investigated AhR-mediated potency and quantified potential aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonists in sediments from four regions (Meiliang Bay, Zhushan Lake, Lake Center, Corner of Zhushan Lake, and Meiliang Bay) of Tai Lake by use of the in vitro H4IIE-luc, cell-based, transactivation, reporter gene assay, and instrumental analysis. Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (Bio-TEQs) in sediments ranged from less than the limit of detection to 114.5 pg/g, dry weight, which indicated that organic extracts of sediments exhibited significant AhR-mediated potencies. Results of the potency balance analysis demonstrated that acid-labile, dioxin-like compounds represented a greater proportion of concentrations of Bio-TEQs in sediments from Tai Lake. Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents calculated as the sum of the product of concentrations of individual congeners and their respective relative potencies (Chem-TEQs) based on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and/or polychlorinated biphenyls represented no more than 10 % of the total concentrations of Bio-TEQs.     

Photocatalytic degradation of acetaminophen in modified TiO2 under visible irradiation

This study investigated the photocatalytic degradation of acetaminophen (ACT) in synthetic titanium dioxide (TiO₂) solution under a visible light (λ >440 nm). The TiO₂ photocatalyst used in this study was synthesized via sol–gel method and doped with potassium aluminum sulfate (KAl(SO₄)₂) and sodium aluminate (NaAlO₂). The influence of some parameters on the degradation of acetaminophen was examined, such as initial pH, photocatalyst dosage, and initial ACT concentration. The optimal operational conditions were also determined. Results showed that synthetic TiO₂ catalysts presented mainly as anatase phase and no rutile phase was observed. The results of photocatalytic degradation showed that LED alone degraded negligible amount of ACT but with the presence of TiO₂/KAl(SO₄)₂, 95 % removal of 0.10-mM acetaminophen in 540-min irradiation time was achieved. The synthetic TiO₂/KAl(SO₄)₂ presented better photocatalytic degradation of acetaminophen than commercially available Degussa P-25. The weak crystallinity of synthesized TiO₂/NaAlO₂ photocatalyst showed low photocatalytic degradation than TiO₂/KAl(SO₄)₂. The optimal operational conditions were obtained in pH 6.9 with a dose of 1.0 g/L TiO₂/KAl(SO₄)₂ at 30 °C. Kinetic study illustrated that photocatalytic degradation of acetaminophen fits well in the pseudo-first order model. Competitive reactions from intermediates affected the degradation rate of ACT, and were more obvious as the initial ACT concentration increased.