EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER WITHDRAWALS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995 TO 20251

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business‐as‐usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.     

Antenatal manifestation of congenital pancreatoblastoma in a fetus with Beckwith–Wiedemann syndrome

An Erratum has been published for this article in Prenatal Diagnosis 23(9) 2003, 771 Antenatal detection of an isolated abdominal cyst was found to be a pancreatoblastoma in a female fetus with Beckwith–Wiedemann syndrome. Prenatal and post-natal features and management of this very rare tumour are discussed. Molecular investigation disclosed a mosaic paternal 11p15 uniparental disomy in the tumoral cells. The prognosis of a congenital pancreatoblastoma is good if complete surgical excision is achieved. However, the association with Beckwith–Wiedemann syndrome requires a prolonged follow-up because of the increased risk of developing malignant tumours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An overview of cross-sectional studies of mortality and air pollution and related statistical issues

A heuristic framework is developed for assessing statistical studies of air pollution and mortality which use the General Linear Model as a principal tool for analysis. Arrays that systematically compare the information of each study are introduced. In addition, a number of studies are contrasted against several statistical criteria to assess the reliability of the study results. Reliability is considered in terms of statistical estimation theory and practice. Finally, there is a discussion of several points of statistical contention which can affect the results of these studies. The conclusion is that statistical studies that use the General Linear Model have made limited use of available methods and tests. Several issues are raised which will require additional research.     

Photodegradation of pesticides .1. Photolysis rates and half‐life of acylanilides and their major metabolites in water

The photolysis in water solution of three fungicides (Metalaxyl, Benalaxyl, and Furalaxyl) was studied under artificial light. At λ = 254 Benalaxyl and Furalaxyl underwent fast degradation with rearrangement reactions less complex than those of Metalaxyl. Under A = 254–290 the photolysis was very fast and Benalaxyl and Furalaxyl show a common behaviour. This was found to be a kinetic consecutive process leading, at first, to N‐2,6‐xylyl‐D,L‐alaninate (II), which was degraded to 2,6‐dimethylaniline (IV). This amine gives unknown products. Metalaxyl underwent a parallel/consecutive photodegradtion to give (II) and N‐(methoxyacetyl)‐2,6‐dimethylaniline (VI). While (II) was easily converted to (IV) as earlier, (VI) was more stable to photolysis. Under λ > 290 all the fungicides shown very slow degradation with pseudo first order rate constants. The photoproducts were degraded faster than the parent compounds by factors from 13 to 1800. The presence of photosensitizer in water (humic acids or acetone) resulted in total decomposition of fungicides and of their photoproducts.     

Two-phase SPH modelling of advective diffusion processes

This paper deals with a two-dimensional numerical model based on the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) technique for the evaluation of the concentration field of pollutants in water. A SPH model is formulated to solve the fickian diffusion equation applied to pollutants with the same density as the water. A lagrangian SPH formalism of the advective diffusion equation is also developed for pollutant-water, taking into account the effects of molecular diffusion and natural advection induced by differences between the fluid densities. These equations are coupled with the fluid mechanics equations. Attention is paid to the numerical aspects involved in the solution procedure and to the optimization of the model parameters. Environmental engineering problems concerning diffusion and natural advection phenomena occur in the presence of a pollutant in still water. Numerical tests referring to a strip and a bubble of contaminant in a water tank with different initial concentration laws have been carried out. The results obtained by the proposed SPH models are compared with other available SPH formulations, showing an overall better agreement with standard analytical solutions in terms of spatial evolution of the concentration values. Capabilities and limits of the proposed SPH models to simulate advective diffusion phenomena for a wide range of density ratios are discussed.     

Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

Exploring management strategies for community-based forests using multi-agent systems: A case study in Palawan, Philippines

This paper describes the experiences and lessons learned in applying a multi-agent systems (MAS) model to study the dynamics and complex interactions among stakeholders in the management of community-based forests. The MAS model is developed using the companion modelling (ComMod) approach, which allows for a collaborative development of the model between the stakeholders and researchers. This approach involves the development and application of role-playing games (RPGs) and computer simulation as learning tools and to validate the model. Inferences are drawn from the learning and negotiation processes that the stakeholders and researchers underwent in the collaborative development of the MAS model. These processes ultimately led to the development of a collaborative resource management plan. The approach and the MAS model were applied to a case study involving a community-based forest managed by three villages in the island of Palawan, Philippines.