Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.     

Catalyzing sustainable fisheries management through behavior change interventions

Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized.     

A hydrological modeling framework for defining achievable performance standards for pesticides

This paper proposes a hydrological modeling framework to define achievable performance standards (APSs) for pesticides that could be attained after implementation of recommended management actions, agricultural practices, and available technologies (i.e., beneficial management practices [BMPs]). An integrated hydrological modeling system, Gestion Intégrée des Bassins versants à l'aide d'un Système Informatisé, was used to quantify APSs for six Canadian watersheds for eight pesticides: atrazine, carbofuran, dicamba, glyphosate, MCPB, MCPA, metolachlor, and 2,4-D. Outputs from simulation runs to predict pesticide concentration under current conditions and in response to implementation of two types of beneficial management practices (reduced pesticide application rate and 1- to 10-m-wide edge-of-field and/or riparian buffer strips, implemented singly or in combination) showed that APS values for scenarios with BMPs were less than those for current conditions. Moreover, APS values at the outlet of watersheds were usually less than ecological thresholds of good condition, when available. Upstream river reaches were at greater risk of having concentrations above a given ecological thresholds because of limited stream flows and overland loads of pesticides. Our integrated approach of "hydrological modeling-APS estimation-ecotoxicological significance" provides the most effective interpretation possible, for management and education purposes, of the potential biological impact of predicted pesticide concentrations in rivers.     

Managing Sustainable Development Conflicts: The Impact of Stakeholders in Small-Scale Hydropower Schemes

The growing importance of the environment and its management has simultaneously emphasized the benefits of hydroelectric power and its environmental costs. In a changing policy climate, giving importance to renewable energy development and environmental protection, conflict potential between stakeholders is considerable. Navigation of conflict determines the scheme constructed, making sustainable hydropower a function of human choice. To meet the needs of practitioners, greater understanding of stakeholder conflict is needed. This paper presents an approach to illustrate the challenges that face small-scale hydropower development as perceived by the stakeholders involved, and how they influence decision-making. Using Gordleton Mill, Hampshire (UK), as an illustrative case, soft systems methodology, a systems modeling approach, was adopted. Through individual interviews, a range of problems were identified and conceptually modeled. Stakeholder bias towards favoring economic appraisal over intangible social and environmental aspects was identified; costs appeared more influential than profit. Conceptual evaluation of the requirements to meet a stakeholder-approved solution suggested a complex linear systems approach, considerably different from the real-life situation. The stakeholders introduced bias to problem definition by transferring self-perceived issues onto the project owner. Application of soft systems methodology caused a shift in project goals away from further investigation towards consideration of project suitability. The challenge of sustainable hydropower is global, with a need to balance environmental, economic, and social concerns. It is clear that in this type of conflict, an individual can significantly influence outcomes; highlighting the need for more structured approaches to deal with stakeholder conflicts in sustainable hydropower development.     

The influence on the radioxenon background during the temporary suspension of operations of three major medical isotope production facilities in the Northern Hemisphere and during the start-up of another facility in the Southern Hemisphere

Medical isotope production facilities (MIPF) have recently been identified to emit the major part of the environmental radioxenon measured at many globally distributed monitoring sites deployed to strengthen the radionuclide component of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification regime. Efforts to raise a global radioxenon emission inventory revealed that the yearly global total emission from MIPF’s is around 15 times higher than the total radioxenon emission from nuclear power plants (NPP's).Given that situation, from mid 2008 until early 2009 two out of the ordinary hemisphere-specific events occured:1) In the Northern hemisphere, a joint temporary suspension of operations of the three largest MIPF's made it possible to quantify the effects of the emissions related to NPP’s. The average activity concentrations of ¹³³Xe measured at a monitoring station close to Freiburg, Germany, went down significantly from 4.5 ± 0.5 mBq/m³ to 1.1 ± 0.1 mBq/m³ and in Stockholm, Sweden, from 2.0 ± 0.4 mBq/m³ to 1.05 ± 0.15 mBq/m³.2) In the Southern hemisphere the only radioxenon-emitting MIPF in Australia started up test production in late November 2008. During eight test runs, up to 6.2 ± 0.2 mBq/m³ of ¹³³Xe was measured at the station in Melbourne, 700 km south-west from the facility, where no radioxenon had been observed before, originating from the isotopic production process.This paper clearly confirms the hypothesis that medical isotope production facility are at present the major emitters of radioxenon to the atmosphere. Suspension of operations of these facilities indicates the scale of their normal contribution to the European radioxenon background, which decreased two to four fold. This also gives a unique opportunity to detect and investigate the influence of other local and long distance sources on the radioxenon background. Finally the opposing effect was studied: the contribution of the start-up of a renewed radiopharmaceutical facility to the build up of a radioxenon background across Australia and the Southern hemisphere.     

Flow and contaminant transport in an airliner cabin induced by a moving body: Model experiments and CFD predictions

The effects of a moving human body on flow and contaminant transport inside an aircraft cabin were investigated. Experiments were performed in a one-tenth scale, water-based model. The flow field and contaminant transport were measured using the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) techniques, respectively. Measurements were obtained with (ventilation case) and without (baseline case) the cabin environmental control system (ECS). The PIV measurements show strong intermittency in the instantaneous near-wake flow. A symmetric downwash flow was observed along the vertical centerline of the moving body in the baseline case. The evolution of this flow pattern is profoundly perturbed by the flow from the ECS. Furthermore, a contaminant originating from the moving body is observed to convect to higher vertical locations in the presence of ventilation. These experimental data were used to validate a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model. The CFD model can effectively capture the characteristic flow features and contaminant transport observed in the small-scale model.     

Modelling contra-flow in crowd dynamics DEM simulation

This paper highlights the growing need for a realistic crowd simulation in the design of large venues such as concert halls and stadia. A discrete element method (DEM) technique for modelling crowd dynamics has been developed that represents each person within the model as 3 overlapping circles, a position, orientation and velocity in 2D. Contact forces between elements are included in the model as well as psychological forces, motive forces and moments. The motion of each person is then modelled in a Newtonian manner with a numerical integration time-stepping scheme. The model has been shown previously to work well in predicting egress. In this paper the predicted model behaviour is compared to actual video footage shot at various locations around University Park Campus, Nottingham. It did not match well to the video footage when people are moving towards each other, as in cases of contra-flow on a walkway. In order to improve the model, a general algorithm for ‘avoidance’ was included which appeared to make the model significantly more realistic in these cases. The paper also shows areas for further potential development, such as incorporating people into associative groups such as family or friends.     

An empirical examination of the role of attributions in psychological entitlement and its outcomes

Psychological entitlement refers to the phenomenon in which individuals consistently believe that they deserve preferential rewards and treatment, often with little consideration of actual qualities or performance levels. This study examines the influence of psychological entitlement on workplace outcomes, using attribution theory to explain its effects. Results suggested that entitlement perceptions are positively associated with self‐serving attribution styles and that diminished need for cognition mediates this relationship. Self‐serving attribution styles, in turn, were associated with reduced job satisfaction and increased levels of conflict with supervisors. A direct positive relationship between psychological entitlement and turnover intent was also observed. Overall, results suggest that an attributional perspective is useful in explaining and understanding the influence of entitlement perceptions on workplace outcomes. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Developing Stressor Gradients1

Abstract: This is the first in a series of three articles designed to establish empirically defined biological indicators and thresholds for impairment for urbanized catchments, and to describe a process by which the biological condition of waterbodies in urbanized catchments can be applied. This article describes alternative gradients of urbanization for assessing and selecting a nationally applicable biological index (article 2 – Purcell et al., this issue ) and defining the potential of biological communities within a gradient of cumulative stressors (article 3 – Paul et al. this issue ). Gradients were designed to represent the most prominent mosaic of stressors found in urban settings. A primary urban gradient was assembled based on readily obtained information of urbanization to include three broad‐scale parameters: percent urban land use/land cover, population density, and road density. This gradient was used as the standard by which alternative urban gradients, which included fine‐scale instream chemical and hydrologic parameters, were assessed. Five alternative gradients were developed to provide numerous environmental management options based on availability of data from water program resources. The urban gradients were developed with the intent that they be applied throughout the country; therefore, data from three different regions of the United States (Mid‐Atlantic, Midwest, and Pacific Coast) were used to validate the urban gradient model. Our study showed that a relatively straightforward stressor gradient consisting of human population density, road density, and urban land use is useful in providing a framework for developing relevant biological indicators and evaluating the potential of biological communities as a basis for assessing attainment of designated aquatic life use.     

The acceptability of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in Europe: An assessment of the key determining factors: Part 1. Scientific,technical and economic dimensions

The ACCSEPT project, which ran from January 2006 to December 2007, identified and analysed the main factors which have been influencing the emergence of CO₂ capture and geological storage (CCS) within the European Union (EU). The key clusters of factors concern science and technology, law and regulation, economics, and social acceptance. These factors have been analysed through interviews, a large-scale questionnaire conducted in 2006, and discussions in two stakeholder workshops (2006 and 2007). In Part I of this paper, we aim to distil the key messages and findings with regards to scientific, technical, legal and economic issues. There are no compelling scientific, technical, legal, or economic reasons why CCS could not be widely deployed in the forthcoming decades as part of a package of climate change mitigation options. In order to facilitate this deployment, governments at both the EU and Member State levels have an important role to play, in particular in establishing a robust and transparent legal framework (e.g. governing long-term environmental liability) and a strong policy framework providing sufficient and long-term incentives for CCS and CO₂ transportation networks.