Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Compositional analysis of overdispersed counts using generalized estimating equations

Multivariate abundance data are commonly collected in ecology, and used to explore questions of “community composition”—how relative abundance of different taxa changes with environmental conditions. In this paper, we propose a log-linear marginal modeling approach for analyzing such compositional count data, via generalized estimating equations. This method exploits the multiplicative nature of log-linear models for counts, by reparameterizing models that describe marginal effects on mean abundance. This allows partitioning into “main effects” and compositional effects, which is appealing for interpretation. We apply the proposed approach to reanalyze compositional counts of benthic invertebrates from Delaware Bay, and data of invertebrate communities inhabiting Acacia plants in eastern Australia. In both cases we resort to a resampling approach to make inferences about regression parameters, because the number of clusters was not large compared to cluster size.     

Tradeable development rights to protect peri-urban areas: lessons from the United States and observations on Australian practice

As population growth continues there is greater pressure to manage cities and regions sustainably. These pressures are particularly acute in Australia's fastest growing peri-urban regions. Despite efforts to contain and consolidate urban growth, pressure on the peri-urban interface remains a key challenge. The reliance on traditional regulatory approaches to manage land use change in high growth peri-urban areas is proving to be ineffective. The use of market-based instruments (MBIs) are among the many options available to planners and policy makers to manage growth and development. Tradeable development rights (TDRs) are one type of MBI that have been used widely throughout the US to preserve open space and agricultural lands; however, their application in Australia has been limited. This paper uses a simple case study approach to review two Australian peri-urban TDR cases based on the findings of a large-scale US TDR study. The findings suggest that any attempt to implement TDR programmes in Australia should have regard for the key factors found in successful US TDR programmes. Planners also need to develop an intricate understanding of the internal and external factors that influence peri-urban areas.     

A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

Can Rapid Assessment Protocols Be Used to Judge Sediment Impairment in Gravel‐Bed Streams? A Commentary

Land management agencies commonly use rapid assessments to evaluate the impairment of gravel‐bed streams by sediment inputs from anthropogenic sources. We question whether rapid assessment can be used to reliably judge sediment impairment at a site or in a region. Beyond the challenges of repeatable and accurate sampling, we argue that a single metric or protocol is unlikely to reveal causative relations because channel condition can result from multiple pathways, processes, and background controls. To address these concerns, a contextual analysis is needed to link affected resources, causal factors, and site history to reliably identify human influences. Contextual analysis is equivalent in principle to cumulative effects and watershed analyses and has a rich history, but has gradually been replaced by rapid assessment methods. Although the approaches differ, rapid assessment and contextual analysis are complementary and can be implemented in a two‐tiered approach in which rapid assessment provides a coarse (first‐tier) analysis to identify sites that deserve deeper contextual assessment (second‐tier). Contextual analysis is particularly appropriate for site‐specific studies that should be tailored to local conditions. A balance between rapid assessment and contextual analysis is needed to provide the most effective information for management decisions.     

Greenhouse gas emission and its potential mitigation process from the waste sector in a large-scale exhibition

As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.), 4.43 kg SO₂-eq., 4.88 kg NO₃^--eq., and 3509 m³ water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO₂-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO₂-eq., and CH₄, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO₂-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.     

Climate change adaptation,mitigation and livelihood benefits in coffee production: where are the synergies?

There are worldwide approximately 4.3 million coffee (Coffea arabica) producing smallholders generating a large share of tropical developing countries’ gross domestic product, notably in Central America. Their livelihoods and coffee production are facing major challenges due to projected climate change, requiring adaptation decisions that may range from changes in management practices to changes in crops or migration. Since management practices such as shade use and reforestation influence both climate vulnerability and carbon stocks in coffee, there may be synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation that could make it advantageous to jointly pursue both objectives. In some cases, carbon accounting for mitigation actions might even be used to incentivize and subsidize adaptation actions. To assess potential synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation in smallholder coffee production systems, we quantified (i) the potential of changes in coffee production and processing practices as well as other livelihood activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) coffee farmers’ climate change vulnerability and need for adaptation, including the possibility of carbon markets subsidizing adaptation. We worked with smallholder organic coffee farmers in Northern Nicaragua, using workshops, interviews, farm visits and the Cool Farm Tool software to calculate greenhouse gas balances of coffee farms. From the 12 activities found to be relevant for adaptation, two showed strong and five showed modest synergies with mitigation. Afforestation of degraded areas with coffee agroforestry systems and boundary tree plantings resulted in the highest synergies between adaptation and mitigation. Financing possibilities for joint adaptation-mitigation activities could arise through carbon offsetting, carbon insetting, and carbon footprint reductions. Non-monetary benefits such as technical assistance and capacity building could be effective in promoting such synergies at low transaction costs.