HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION OF THE SWAT MODEL IN A WATERSHED CONTAINING FRAGIPAN SOILS1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, designed for use on rural ungaged basins and incorporating a GRASS GIS interface, was used to model the hydrologic response of the Ariel Creek watershed of northeastern Pennsylvania. Model evaluation of daily flow prior to calibration revealed a deviation of runoff volumes (D_v) of 68.3 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of-0.03. Model performance was affected by unusually large observed snowmelt events and the inability of the model to accurately simulate baseflow, which was influenced by the presence of fragipans. Seventy-five percent of the soils in the watershed contain fragipans. Model calibration yielded a D_v of 39.9 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.04, when compared on a daily basis. Monthly comparisons yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.14. Snowmelt events in the springs of 1993 and 1994, which were unusually severe, were not adequately simulated. Neglecting these severe events, which produced the largest and third largest measured flows for the period of record, a D_v of 4.1 percent and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.20 were calculated on a daily comparison, while on a monthly basis the Nash-Sutciffe coefficient was 0.55. These results suggest that the SWAT model is better suited to longer period simulations of hydrologic yields. Baseflow volumes were accurately simulated after calibration (D_v= -0.2 percent). Refinements made to the algorithms controlling subsurface hydrology and snowmelt, to better represent the presence of fragipans and snowmelt events, would likely improve model performance.     

Introduction to the Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program

This paper provides an introduction to a long-term biological monitoring program and the Environmental Management special issue titled Long-term Biological Monitoring of an Impaired Stream: Implications for Environmental Management. The Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program, or BMAP, was implemented to assess biological impairment downstream of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, beginning in 1985. Several of the unique aspects of the program include its long-term consistent sampling, a focus on evaluating the effectiveness of specific facility abatement and remedial actions, and the use of quantitative sampling protocols using a multidisciplinary approach. This paper describes the need and importance of long-term watershed-based biological monitoring strategies, in particular for addressing long-term stewardship goals at DOE sites, and provides a summary of the BMAP’s objectives, spatial and temporal extent, and overall focus. The primary components of the biological monitoring program for East Fork Poplar Creek in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are introduced, as are the additional 9 papers in this Environmental Management special issue.     

The roles of nicotine and natural enemies in determining larval feeding site distributions of Manduca sexta L. and Manduca quinquemaculata (Haworth) on tobacco

Summary. Field observations indicated that hornworms select feeding sites non-randomly on tobacco. We tested the hypotheses that differences in feeding site locations of larvae of Manduca sexta L. and Manduca quinquemaculata (Haworth) (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae) on tobacco could be explained by differential nicotine concentrations within plants and leaves, species-specific responses to nicotine, or pressure exerted by natural enemies. Results showed that third-instar larvae of M. sexta fed more proximally and centrally on the leaf, whereas M. quinquemaculata fed more distally. Within-plant selection of leaves did not differ; both species selected leaves in the middle region of the plant. Nicotine concentrations in a high nicotine genotype, NC95, varied within each leaf, increasing 2—3 fold from the basal to apical portion of the leaf, and within each plant, increasing 7—10 fold from the first fully expanded leaf to the twelfth (lowest) leaf. In laboratory bioassays, both Manduca species responded to nicotine as a feeding deterrent. Electrophysiological studies demonstrated that gustatory organs of both species responded to nicotine at concentrations found in tobacco leaves and that M. quinquemaculata generally showed a less vigorous response to nicotine than M. sexta. Field mortality of M. sexta due to parasitism by Cotesia congregata (Say) and to parasitism and predation combined differed among feeding sites; predation alone did not. Results suggest that although nicotine concentration and species specific responses to nicotine play a role in determining feeding site locations, pressure exerted by natural enemies, especially parasitism by C. congregata, is more important. Received 22 February 2000; accepted 20 July 2001.     

An infant with trisomy 9 mosaicism presenting as a complete trisomy 9 by amniocentesis

We present a case in which amniocentesis performed at 33 weeks' gestation because of symmetrical intrauterine growth retardation and decreased amniotic fluid volume led to the prenatal diagnosis of a fetus with a karyotype of 47,XX,+9, t(1;20)(q42;p11.2) pat, i.e., with an extra chromosome 9 and a balanced translocation between chromosomes 1 and 20. At delivery, the baby showed clinical features of trisomy 9, yet chromosome analysis of the cord blood revealed no trisomy 9 cells, a finding confirmed by neonatal blood karyotyping. The balanced translocation was present in all cells. A skin biopsy confirmed trisomy 9 mosaicism with 10 per cent trisomy 9 cells. The baby died at 6 weeks and an autopsy was obtained. Chromosome analysis of different organs demonstrated different frequencies of the mosaicism of trisomy 9. The possible underlying mechanism for the discrepancy between the karyotype results by amniocentesis and those of other tissues is discussed.     

Investigation of the time evolved spatial distribution of urban PM2.5 concentrations and aerosol composition during episodic high PM events in Yuma,AZ

An interdisciplinary field study designed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric aerosols during high particulate matter (PM) events along the US–Mexico border near Yuma, AZ was run during the week of March 18, 2007. The experiments were designed to quantify chemical composition and physical phenomena governing the transport of aerosols generated from episodic high PM events. The field study included two micrometeorological monitoring sites; one rural and one urban, equipped with sonic anemometers, continuous particulate concentration monitors and ambient aerosol collection equipment. In addition to the two main monitoring sites, five additional locations were equipped with optical particle counters to allow for the investigation of the spatial and temporal distribution of PM_2.5 in the urban environment. In this paper, the meteorological and turbulence parameters governing the distribution and concentration of PM_2.5 in the urban environment for two high-wind erosion events and one burning event are compared. The interaction between local atmospheric conditions and the particulate distribution is investigated. Results indicate that a single point measurement in the urban area of Yuma may not be sufficient for determining the ambient PM concentrations that the local population experiences; all three high PM events indicated PM_2.5 varied considerably with maximum urban concentrations 5–10 times greater than the measured minima. A comparison of inorganic and carbonaceous content of the aerosols for the three high PM events is presented. The comparison shows an increase in silicon during crustal dust events and an increase in elemental and organic carbon during the burn event. Additional surface chemistry analysis, using time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), for aerosols collected at the urban and rural sites during the burn event are discussed. The surface chemistry analysis provides positive ion mass spectra of organic and inorganic species in the ambient aerosol, and can be used to determine the type of combustion process that contributed to an increase in PM concentration during the burn event.     

The influence of land-cover changes on the variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity in tropical peatlands

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Understanding the movement of water through peat is essential for effective conservation and management strategies for peatlands. Saturated...     

The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling

Using known occurrences of species and correlational modeling approaches has become a common paradigm in broad-scale ecology and biogeography, yet important aspects of the methodology remain little-explored in terms of conceptual basis. Here, we explore the conceptual and empirical reasons behind choice of extent of study area in such analyses, and offer practical, but conceptually justified, reasoning for such decisions. We assert that the area that has been accessible to the species of interest over relevant time periods represents the ideal area for model development, testing, and comparison.     

Assumption‐versus data‐based approaches to summarizing species’ ranges

For conservation decision making, species’ geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse‐resolution extent‐of‐occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent‐of‐occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine‐resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent‐of‐occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well‐documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species’ true areas of distribution. However, no model‐evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse‐grained, global‐extent studies, their continued use in on‐the‐ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data‐driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data‐driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well‐founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species’ distributional patterns for conservation applications.     

Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long-term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short-term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short-term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time-to-event analysis on a database of unusually well-monitored and long-term (4–28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life-history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time-lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life-history theory with short-lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long-lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long-lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short-lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life-history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life-history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long-term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life-histories take decades to unfold.     

Comparison of recidivism rates for a teenage trauma prevention program after the addition of high-fidelity patient simulation

Objectives: We evaluated the benefits of adding high-fidelity simulation to a teenage trauma prevention program to decrease recidivism rates and encourage teens to discuss actionable steps toward safe driving.

Methods: A simulated pediatric trauma scenario was integrated into an established trauma prevention program. Participants were recruited because they were court-ordered to attend this program after misdemeanor convictions for moving violations. The teenage participants viewed this simulation from the emergency medical services (EMS) handoff to complete trauma care. Participants completed a postsimulation knowledge assessment and care evaluation, which included narrative data about the experience. Qualitative analysis of color-coded responses identified common themes and experiences in participants' answers. Court records were reviewed 6 years after course completion to determine short- and long-term recidivism rates, which were then compared to our program's historical rate.

Results: One hundred twenty-four students aged 16–20 years participated over a 2-year study period. Narrative responses included general reflection, impressions, and thoughts about what they might change as a result of the course. Participants reported that they would decrease speed (30%), wear seat belts (15%), decrease cell phone use (11%), and increase caution (28%). The recidivism rate was 55% within 6 years. At 6 months it was 8.4%, at 1 year it was 20%, and it increased approximately 5–8% per year after the first year. Compared with our programs, for historical 6-month and 2-year recidivism rates, no significant difference was seen with or without simulation.

Conclusions: Adding simulation is well received by participants and leads to positive reflections regarding changes in risk-taking behaviors but resulted in no changes to the high recidivism rates This may be due to the often ineffectiveness of fear appeals.