Air pollution and forest health: toward new monitoring concepts

It is estimated that 49% of forests (17 million km(2)) will be exposed to damaging concentrations of tropospheric O(3) by 2100. Global forest area at risk from S deposition may reach 5.9 million km(2) by 2050, despite SO(2) emission reductions of 48% in North America and 25% in Europe. Although SO(2) levels have decreased, emissions of NO(x) are little changed, or have increased slightly. In some regions, the molar SO(4)/NO(3) ratio in precipitation has switched from 2/1 to near 1/1 during the past two decades. Coincidentally, pattern shifts in precipitation and temperature are evident. A number of reports suggest that forests are being affected by air pollution. Yet, the extent to which such effects occur is uncertain, despite the efforts dedicated to monitoring forests. Routine monitoring programmes provide a huge amount of data. Yet in many cases, these data do not fit the conceptual and statistical requirements for detecting status and trends of forest health, nor for cause-effect research. There is a clear need for a re-thinking of monitoring strategies.     

Bronchial dosimeters for radon progeny for Chinese males and females

Bronchial dosimeters have been designed for adult Chinese males and females for home and mine exposures, which can give the bronchial doses from radon progeny by direct measurements. The bronchial dosimeter for home exposures consists of five 400-mesh wire screens. With a sampling face velocity of 3.3 cm s(-1) for Chinese males and 2.7 cm s(-1) for Chinese females, the deposition pattern on the wire screens were found to satisfactorily match the variation of the dose conversion coefficients (in units of mSv WLM(-1)) with the size of radon progeny from 1 to 1000 nm. The bronchial dosimeter for mine exposures consists of four 250-mesh wire screens. With a sampling face velocity of 3.3 cm s(-1), the deposition pattern on the wire screens were found to satisfactorily match the variation of the dose conversion coefficients for both Chinese males and females. In this way, the bronchial dosimeters directly give the bronchial doses from the alpha counts recorded on the wire-screens.     

Heavy metal levels and esterase variations between metal-exposed and unexposed duckweed Lemna minor: field and laboratory studies

Environmental homogeneity is being continuously disturbed and affected by artificially introduced loads of chemical toxicants that also include heavy metals. The Tiljala wetlands of the eastern fringe of Calcutta, West Bengal (India) are a virtual sink for the deposition of urban and industrial wastes that get admixed with the aquatic environment. We have selected Lemna minor (duckweed), as a representative of the biota surviving therein for the present study. Concentrations of lead, cadmium, chromium, zinc, copper and mercury in the fronds of Lemna were measured to peep into the range of input of heavy metals in the duckweed subjects. Natural unexposed population of duckweed from a domestic pond in Batanagar area, 24 Parganas, West Bengal (India) was also found to accumulate similar concentrations of these metals when cultured in artificially contaminated water in the laboratory. The exposed individuals also exhibited polymorphism with respect to the loci of esterase, as compared to an unexposed control plants. Therefore, the present study suggests EST variations of L. minor to be a potential biomarker of heavy metal pollution.     

Reconstruction of radioactive plume characteristics along Chernobyl's Western Trace

Using data obtained from 435 radiation sampling stations in the Red Forest, 1.5 km W if the Chernobyl Nuclear Complex, we reconstructed the deposition pathway of the first plume released by the accident, Chernobyl's Western Trace. The dimensions and deposition rates of the plume remain sharply defined 15 years after the accident. Assuming a uniform particle distribution within the original cloud, we derived estimates of plume dimensions by applying geometric transformations to the coordinates at each sample point. Our derived estimates for the radioactive cloud accounted for 87% of the variation of radioactivity in this region. Results show a highly integrated bell-shaped cross-section of the cloud of radiation, approximately 660 m wide and 290 m high, traveling at a bearing of 264 degrees from reactor IV. Particle sizes within Chernobyl's Western Trace were within the most dangerous range for inhaled aerosols (2-5 microm). Therefore, reconstruction of the dispersion of such particles is critical for understanding the aftermath of nuclear and biological aerosol releases.     

Land Evaluation for Maize Based on Fuzzy Set and Interpolation

The objective of this article is to apply fuzzy set and interpolation techniques for land suitability evaluation for maize in Northern Ghana. Land suitability indices were computed at point observations using the Semantic Import (SI) model, whereas spatial interpolation was carried out by block kriging. Interpolated land suitability shows a high correlation (R2 = 0.87) with observed maize yield at the village level. This indicates that land suitability is closely related to maize yield in the study area. Membership functions were further used to assess the degree of limitation of land characteristics to maize. Sixty percent of the data has membership functions ranging from 0.23 for ECEC to 1.00 for drainage. ECEC, organic C, and clay are the major constraints to maize yield. The use of the fuzzy technique is helpful for land suitability evaluation, especially in applications in which subtle differences in soil quality are of a major interest. Furthermore, the use of kriging that exploits spatial variability of data is useful in producing continuous land suitability maps and in estimating uncertainties associated with predicted land suitability indices.     

Editorial

Editorial Commentary

Editorial     

ENHANCING EVACUATION WARNING COMPLIANCE: SUGGESTIONS FOREMERGENCY PLANNING*

This review of incentives to evacuate is meaningful largely in the context of planning for and managing the consequences of the impact of riverine floods. Of course, incentives do not constitute an emergency plan. At best, they should be seen as suggestions for structuring some elements of a plan. Furthermore, the enumeration of incentives presented here is meant to be suggestive rather than exhaustive. A primary objective of this paper has been to underscore the importance of advance planning in coping with hazards and to argue that, even though limited, existing research can be productively used in the planning process. The incentives described here are based upon or drawn from empirical research on people's performance under flood disaster conditions. This reflects the view that it is important to build emergency planning around people's known reaction patterns. Too often emergency plans which are administratively devised turn out to be based upon misconceptions of how people react (cf. Drabek and Stephenson, 1971, p. 202; Dynes et al., 1972, p. 31) and, therefore, potentially create more difficulties than they solve. One must be cautioned, however, that although our data indicate that people say they would support the idea of various evacuation incentives examined here, these are attitudinal data and not performance data. Thus, the real test of evacuation incentives lies in their implementation and in evaluation data on pilot programs which, unfortunately, do not presently exist. The outlook for the feasibility of developing and utilizing evacuation incentives appears to be positive, though, judging from responses to our interviews. In the final analysis, it would appear to be wise to develop emergency plans which guide and channel citizen actions into complementary and productive protection behavior patterns. The present discussion of incentives to evacuate is intended to encourage data-based emergency planning.