Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.     

Coxsackievirus B4 as a Causative Agent of Diabetes Mellitus Type 1: Is There a Role of Inefficiently Treated Drinking Water and Sewage in Virus Spreading?

This study proposed to detect the enterovirus (EV) infection in children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) and to assess the role of insufficiently treated water and sewage as sources of viral spreading. Three hundred and eighty-two serum specimens of children with T1D, one hundred serum specimens of children who did not suffer from T1D as control, and forty-eight water and sewage samples were screened for EV RNA using nested RT-PCR. The number of genome copies and infectious units of EVs in raw and treated sewage and water samples were investigated using real-time (RT)-PCR and plaque assay, respectively. T1D markers [Fasting blood glucose (FBG), HbA1c, and C-peptide], in addition to anti-Coxsackie A & B viruses (CVs A & B) IgG, were measured in control, T1D-negative EV (T1D–EV^?), and T1D-positive EV (T1D–EV⁺) children specimens. The prevalence of EV genome was significantly higher in diabetic children (26.2%, 100 out of 382) than the control children (0%, 0 out of 100). FBG and HbA1c in T1D–EV^? and T1D–EV⁺ children specimens were significantly higher than those in the control group, while c-peptide in T1D–EV^? and T1D–EV⁺ children specimens was significantly lower than that in the control (n = 100; p < 0.001). Positivity of anti-CVs A & B IgG was 70.7, 6.7, and 22.9% in T1D–EV⁺, T1D–EV^?, and control children specimens, respectively. The prevalence of EV genome in drinking water and treated sewage samples was 25 and 33.3%, respectively. The prevalence of EV infectious units in drinking water and treated sewage samples was 8.5 and 25%, respectively. Quantification assays were performed to assess the capabilities of both wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and water treatment plants (WTPs) to remove EV. The reduction of EV genome in Zenin WWTP ranged from 2 to 4 log₁₀, while the reduction of EV infectious units ranged from 1 to 4 log₁₀. The reduction of EV genome in El-Giza WTP ranged from 1 to 3 log₁₀, while the reduction of EV infectious units ranged from 1 to 2 log₁₀. This capability of reduction did not prevent the appearance of infectious EV in treated sewage and drinking water. Plaque purification was performed for isolation of separate EV isolates from treated and untreated water and sewage samples. Characterization of the EV amplicons by RT-PCR followed by sequencing of these isolates revealed high homology (97%) with human coxsackievirus B4 (CV B4) in 60% of the isolates, while the rest of the isolates belonged to poliovirus type 1 and type 2 vaccine strains. On the other hand, characterization of the EV amplicons by RT-PCR followed by sequencing for T1D–EV⁺ children specimens indicated that all samples contained CV B4 with the same sequence characterized in the environmental samples. CV B4-contaminated drinking water or treated sewage may play a role as a causative agent of T1D in children.     

Does aging affect the period of the circadian pacemaker in vertebrates?

Dedicated to Prof. Jürgen Aschoff on the occasion of his 80th birthday.     

Maternal genetic disorders and fetal development

With improvements in early diagnosis and management of genetic diseases, more women with genetic disorders are reaching reproductive age and becoming pregnant. While pregnancy can have a significant impact on a woman's health when there is an underlying genetic disorder, there can also be fetal effects, including embryopathy, fetal growth restriction, and brain injury. Some maternal genetic disorders are associated with adverse perinatal outcomes, including a high risk of perinatal loss and preterm birth. In this article, we review several maternal genetic disorders associated with fetal risk that are important for clinicians and patients to understand and manage appropriately. These include phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH) deficiency and other inborn errors of metabolism, tuberous sclerosis complex, myotonic dystrophy, cystic fibrosis, Turner syndrome, sickle cell disease, and connective tissue disorders.     

Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Vegetation response to hydrologic and geomorphic factors in an arid region of the Baja California Peninsula

Remotely sensed imageries were used to analyze the response of desert vegetation to physiographic factors and accumulated precipitation in drier and wetter years within a region of >16,500 km² sampled with 5,000 random pixels of 30 m. Vegetation development was indexed by the annual maximum values for greenness (SAVI) and canopy water content (NDII). Precipitation was interpolated from the 0.25° grid of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission satellite-based estimates, showing a regional average of ～55 mm in the wetter year. The vegetation indices were only weakly related to total precipitation, often in a negative sense. Terrain factors that most often affected the vegetation indices, in multiple regression models, were Topographic Wetness Index, elevation, and slope gradient; these often had different signs for SAVI and for NDII. Models for NDII on intrusive igneous rocks gave better results than on extrusive igneous rocks. The strongest patterns in vegetation development were the contrast among Pacific coast, Cordillera, and Gulf coast subregions and the generally stronger results for NDII than SAVI.