Improved performance in a prenatal screening programme for Down's syndrome incorporating serum-free hCG subunit analyses

A prenatal screening programme for Down's syndrome potentially detecting 76 per cent of affected pregnancies in the South Australian general population at an amniocentesis rate of 3.9 per cent was designed following analysis of mid-trimester serum samples from 57 women who carried an affected fetus. This equates to one affected pregnancy being detected for 41 chromosomal analyses performed. For the experimental series, 75.4 per cent of affected pregnancies were detected, while 4.1 per cent of control specimens produced estimated risk odds consistent with further action. A maternal risk odds of birth of a Down's syndrome fetus of 1:420 was taken as the decision value, which is the prevalence of Down's syndrome births to 35-year-old mothers in South Australia. This screening performance was achieved by investigating combinations of serum analytes not previously reported and by refining the calculation of maternal risk odds to include selective weighting of indicator analytes. Combination of the measurements of free α-subunits and β-subunits of chorionic gonadotrophin, α-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and placental lactogen was found to be most effective in indicating Down's syndrome fetuses. In all combinations of analytes tested, replacing the measurements of free α-subunits and free β-subunits of chorionic gonadotrophin with the measurement of intact chorionic gonadotropin produced a less effective screen.     

Chemical transformations of lead compounds under humid conditions: implications for bioaccessibility

This short communication documents chemical transformations caused by weathering of two Pb compounds that commonly occur in house dust. Chamber experiments were designed to simulate humid indoor environment conditions to determine whether Pb compounds undergo chemical transformations influencing bioaccessibility. Reference compounds of Pb metal (12 % bioaccessibility) and Pb sulfate (14 % bioaccessibility) were subjected to an oxygenated, humidified atmosphere in closed chambers for 4 months. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy were used to characterize the main Pb species, and the change in Pb bioaccessibility was determined using a simulated gastric acid digestion. At the end of the weathering period a small amount of Pb carbonate (9 % of total Pb) appeared in the Pb sulfate sample. Weathering of the Pb metal sample resulted in the formation of two compounds, hydrocerussite (Pb hydroxyl carbonate) and Pb oxide, in significant amounts (each accounted for 26 % of total Pb). The formation of highly bioaccessible Pb carbonate (73 % bioaccessibility), hydrocerussite (76 % bioaccessibility), and Pb oxide (67 % bioaccessibility) during weathering resulted in a measurable increase in the overall Pb bioaccessibility of both samples, which was significant (p = .002) in the case of the Pb metal sample. This study demonstrates that Pb compounds commonly found in indoor dust can ‘age’ into more bioaccessible forms under humid indoor conditions.     

The pattern of early growth trajectories affects adult breeding performance

Early environmental conditions can influence the pattern of growth and development. While poor conditions generally cause slower growth, normal adult size can still be reached if growth accelerates or is prolonged once conditions improve, but such catch-up growth may have deleterious effects later in life. Here we investigate for the first time how decelerating as well as accelerating growth trajectories, manipulated independently of food supply, affect subsequent breeding performance. In order to alter growth rates we subjected juvenile three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus to a short period of altered environmental temperature (high, intermediate, or low), after which all fish had the same (intermediate) temperature regime. In addition, the perceived time stress (until the onset of the spawning season) was manipulated by conducting the experiment twice (in the winter and in the spring immediately prior to breeding) and by exposing half of the fish in each experiment to a delayed photoperiod (two months behind ambient). We found that fish showed full growth compensation, such that in all treatments they were of the same average size by the start of the breeding season. However, those compensating for low temperatures earlier in life (i.e., who then showed an accelerated growth trajectory) had reduced reproductive investment over the following two breeding seasons (males, reduced sexual ornaments and speed of building nests; females, reduced first clutch size, mean egg size, and eggs produced per year). Moreover, these deleterious effects were strongest when the perceived time available for growth compensation prior to breeding was shortest. In contrast, those fish with a decelerating growth trajectory as a result of exposure to high temperatures early in life showed an improved breeding performance compared to steadily growing controls. These results clearly demonstrate that both the shape of the growth trajectory (independent of food supply) and the time available for growth compensation have broad-reaching and prolonged effects on breeding performance, with ecological conditions that prompt catch-up growth just prior to the breeding season being especially damaging for both sexes.     

Costa Rica — Assessing Climate Mitigation Pathways to Support NDC Implementation

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - Costa Rica has set a very ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Despite the low-carbon footprint of its power sector, the goal set in its NDC...     

Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

     

Technetium-99 in the Irish marine environment

Technetium-99 activity concentrations in seawater and biota from Irish coastal waters are presented. Time series measurements of 99Tc in seawater and Fucus vesiculosus from the western Irish Sea show that activity concentrations have increased in line with the increase in discharges of 99Tc from Sellafield. The peak in activity concentrations in both seawater and Fucus vesiculosus occurred in 1997 approximately two years after the peak in 99Tc discharges. The highest activity concentration recorded in Fucus vesiculosus showed a 29-fold increase over the mean concentration for the period 1988-1993. Technetium-99 activity concentrations were measured in fish, lobsters, prawns, mussels and oysters landed at major fishing ports on the east and northeast coasts of Ireland between 1996 and 1998. Concentration factors for 99Tc in the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and certain species of fish, crustaceans and molluscs from the Irish Sea were estimated. In general, these concentration factors were higher than those in the literature which were derived from laboratory studies, but agreed well with values which were based on field studies. The mean committed effective doses to Irish typical and heavy seafood consumers due to 99Tc in the period 1996-1998 were 0.061 and 0.24 microSv, respectively.     

Beyond contractual interpretation: bias in arbitrators' case perceptions and award recommendations

This study applies literature on extra‐legal variables and impression management towards an understanding of judgment biases in arbitration. The extra‐legal variables of previous record and consequence of infraction as well as impression management strategy were manipulated in a written case sent to practising arbitrators. Results suggest that impression management and previous record independently affected the severity of the arbitrator's ruling. In addition, significant interactions occurred. The data are discussed in terms of implications for arbitration and future studies in the area. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fatal crash between a car operating with automated control systems and a tractor-semitrailer truck

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this investigation was to evaluate the interaction between an SAE level 2 automated vehicle and the driver, including the limitations imposed by the vehicle on the driver.

Methods: A case study of the first fatal crash involving a vehicle operating with an automated control system was performed using scene evidence, vehicle damage, and recorded data available from the vehicle, and information from both drivers, including experience, phone records, computer systems, and medical information, was reviewed.

Results: System performance data downloaded from the car indicated that the driver was operating it using the Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer lane-keeping systems, which are automated vehicle control systems within Tesla’s Autopilot suite. As the car crested the hill, a tractor trailer began its left turn onto a crossing roadway. Although reconstruction of the crash determined that there was sufficient sight distance for both drivers to see each other and take action, neither responded to the circumstances leading to the collision. Further, based on the speeds of the vehicles and simulations of the truck’s path, the car driver had at least 10.4?s to detect the truck and take evasive action. Neither the car driver nor the Autopilot system changed the vehicle’s velocity.

?At the time of the crash, the system performance data indicated that the last driver interaction with the system was 1?min 51?s prior when the cruise control speed was set to 74?mph. The driver was operating the vehicle using the Autopilot system for 37 of the 41?min in the last trip. During this period, the vehicle detected the driver’s hands on the steering wheel for a total of 25?s; each time his hands were detected on the wheel was preceded by a visual alert or auditory warning.

Conclusions: The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) determined that the probable cause of the Williston, Florida, crash was the truck driver’s failure to yield the right of way to the car, combined with the car driver’s inattention due to overreliance on vehicle automation, which resulted in the car driver’s lack of reaction to the presence of the truck. Contributing to the car driver’s overreliance on the vehicle automation was the car’s operational design, which permitted the driver’s prolonged disengagement from the driving task and his use of the automation in ways inconsistent with guidance and warnings from the manufacturer.     

Comparison of coal/solid recovered fuel (SRF) with coal/refuse derived fuel (RDF) in a fluidized bed reactor

An experimental study was undertaken to compare the differences between municipal solid waste (MSW) derived solid recovered fuel (SRF) (complying with CEN standards) and refuse derived fuel (RDF). Both fuels were co-combusted with coal in a 50 kW fluidised bed combustor and the metal emissions were compared. Synthetic SRF was prepared in the laboratory by grinding major constituents of MSW such as paper, plastic, textile and wood. RDF was obtained from a local mechanical treatment plant. Heavy metal emissions in flue gas and ash samples from the (coal + 10% SRF) fuel mixture were found to be within the acceptable range and were generally lower than that obtained for coal + 10% RDF fuel mixture. The relative distribution of heavy metals in ash components and the flue gas stream shows the presence of a large fraction (up to 98%) of most of the metals in the ash (except Hg and As). Thermo-gravimetric (TG) analysis of SRF constituents was performed to understand the behaviour of fuel mixtures in the absence and presence of air. The results obtained from the experimental study will enhance the confidence of fuel users towards using MSW-derived SRF as an alternative fuel.