Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

超临界二氧化碳萃取－GC／MS测定土壤中的多环芳烃

本文开发了一种采用超临界二氧化碳萃取土壤中多环芳烃、不须经过纯化步骤，直接可用于ＧＣ／ＭＳ分析的简便、高效的方法。本实验中超临界革取的流体是二氧化碳，改善剂是５％的二氯甲烷／甲醇，萃取温度为１２０℃、压力为３４ＭＰａ。ＧＣ／ＭＳ分析时除了采用外标外，还加入了６种同位素ＰＡＨｓ内标以校正各段ＰＡＨｓ的响应因子。采用本方法成功地测定了我国未开垦森林土壤中的ＰＡＨｓ。     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Plant Phenology in Western Canada: Trends and Links to the View From Space

One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes.     

Mercury and trace elements in cloud water and precipitation collected on Mt. Mansfield,Vermont

The lack of high quality measurements of Hg and trace elements in cloud and fog water led to the design of a new collector for clean sequential sampling of cloud and fog water. Cloud water was collected during nine non-precipitating cloud events on Mt. Mansfield, VT in the northeastern USA between August 1 and October 31, 1998. Sequential samples were collected during six of these events. Mercury cloud water concentrations ranged from 7.5 to 71.8 ng l(-1), with a mean of 24.8 ng l(-1). Liquid water content explained about 60% of the variability in Hg cloud concentrations. Highest Hg cloud water concentrations were found to be associated with transport from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley, and lowest concentrations with transport from the north of Mt. Mansfield out of Canada. Twenty-nine event precipitation samples were collected during the ten-week cloud sampling period near the base of Mt. Mansfield as part of a long-term deposition study. The Hg concentrations of cloud water were similar to, but higher on average (median of 12.5 ng l(-1)) than Hg precipitation concentrations (median of 10.5 ng l(-1)). Cloud and precipitation samples were analyzed for fifteen trace elements including Mg, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb by ICP-MS. Mean concentrations were higher in cloud water than precipitation for elements with predominately anthropogenic, but not crustal origin in samples from the same source region. One possible explanation is greater in-cloud scavenging of crustal elements in precipitating than non-precipitating clouds, and greater below-cloud scavenging of crustal than anthropogenic aerosols.     

Laboratory-polluted soils: a methodological approach to establish equilibrium conditions for different metal chemical forms in soils

An approach based on the number of extractions performed over time was applied to study the time necessary to attain equilibrium conditions between the different chemical forms present in two natural soils laboratory-loaded with heavy metals (Cu(II), Pb(II), Zn(II)). The influence of some soil parameters, such as pH value, cation exchange capacity and organic matter content, on the equilibrium time was evidenced both by the different nature of the soils and by the treatment of soils with paper mill sludge. Equilibrium conditions were determined by studying the metal partitioning in the soil on a case by case basis. The behaviour of the three metals was not the same, and the conditions of equilibrium among the different chemical forms were the result of the amount of heavy metals added as well as of the nature of the soil.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Optimal and suboptimal control of anaerobic digesters

Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events.     

A national framework for monitoring and reporting on environmental sustainability in Canada

In 1991, a collaborative project to revise the terrestrial component of a national ecological framework was undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders. This spatial framework consists of multiple, nested levels of ecological generalization with linkages to existing federal and provincial scientific databases. The broadest level of generalization is the ecozone. Macroclimate, major vegetation types and subcontinental scale physiographic formations constitute the definitive components of these major ecosystems. Ecozones are subdivided into approximately 200 ecoregions which are based on properties like regional physiography, surficial geology, climate, vegetation, soil, water and fauna. The ecozone and ecoregion levels of the framework have been depicted on a national map coverage at 1:7 500 000 scale. Ecoregions have been subdivided into ecodistricts based primarily on landform, parent material, topography, soils, waterbodies and vegetation at a scale (1:2 000 000) useful for environmental resource management, monitoring and modelling activities. Nested within the ecodistricts are the polygons that make up the Soil Landscapes of Canada series of 1:1 000 000 scale soil maps. The framework is supported by an ARC-INFO GIS at Agriculture Canada. The data model allows linkage to associated databases on climate, land use and socio-economic attributes.     

Development of Ecological Land Classification and mapping in support of forest management in northern Newfoundland,Canada

For the sustainable development of forest land, as recently prescribed by the Canadian Forest Strategy, a land classification project in northern Newfoundland was initiated to support the local forest management activities. The method adopted here is a modification of the Canadian Committee for Ecological Land Classification's (CCELC) system, and it applies various levels of mapping to uniform areas based on geomorphology, soils, vegetation, climate, water, and fauna.In this study, all CCELC levels were mapped; resulting maps were digitized and imported into a Geographic Informations System (GIS). The GIS data base contained the following maps: 1) digital terrain model, 2) bedrock geology, 3) surficial geology, 4) forest inventory, and 5) various levels of the ecological land classification, including Vegetation Types at the lowest level. In addition to the mapping, mensurational data were analyzed to provide stand and stock tables for each of the forest types, including growth curves that could be entered into specific forest growth modelling systems to predict wood supply scenarios based upon different management interventions.