LAKE SUPERIOR REGULATION EFFECTS

ABSTRACT: The outflows of Lake Superior through the St. Marys River have been modified from natural conditions, initially by the construction of engineering works, such as bridges, and later by the construction of control works and the regulation of the lake. For all practical purposes, the period from 1860 to 1887 represents the natural river conditions. During the period 1888-1900 the regimen was modified by the construction of the International Railroad Bridge and the Chandler-Dunbar Power Canal. In 1901 construction began on the compensating works. Following the completion of the compensating works in August 1921, the Lake Superior outflows were regulated in accordance with the Orders of Approval, 26 and 27 May 1914. A hydrologic response model was developed to simulate the natural Lake Superior regime. The model was run for the 1860–1975 period to simulate natural Lake Superior levels and outflows. The simulated levels were compared with the recorded levels to determine the effect of regulation. It was found that regulation has resulted in a rise in Lake Superior water levels. The simulated natural outflows for the period from 1937 to 1975 were run through the Great Lakes hydrologic response model to analyze the regulation effects on Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, and Erie. The results show no long-term bias due to regulation.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO₂ increase relative to late 20th Century CO₂ conditions. Two global projections of this CO₂ increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO₂ scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.     

REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RWER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: In the San Joaquin River Basin, California, a realtime water quality forecasting model was developed to help improve the management of saline agricultural and wetland drainage to meet water quality objectives. Predicted salt loads from the water quality forecasting model, SJRIODAY, were consistently within ± 11 percent of actual, within ± 14 percent for seven-day forecasts, and within ± 26 percent for 14-day forecasts for the 16- month trial period. When the 48 days dominated by rainfall/runoff events were eliminated from the data set, the error bar decreased to ± 9 percent for the model and ± 11 percent and ± 17 percent for the seven-day and 14-day forecasts, respectively. Constraints on the use of the model for salinity management on the San Joaquin River include the number of entities that control or influence water quality and the lack of a centralized authority to direct their activities. The lack of real-time monitoring sensors for other primary constituents of concern, such as selenium and boron, limits the application of the model to salinity at the present time. A case study describes wetland drainage releases scheduled to coincide with high river flows and significant river assimilative capacity for salt loads.     

LAKE ONTARIO REGULATION UNDER TRANSPOSED CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: The implications of Lake Ontario regulation under transposed climates with changed means and variability are presented for seasonal and annual time scales. The current regulation plan is evaluated with climates other than the climate for which it was developed and tested. This provides insight into potential conflicts and management issues, development of regulation criteria for extreme conditions, and potential modification of the regulation plan. Transposed climates from the southeastern and south central continental United States are applied to thermodynamic models of the Great Lakes and hydrologic models of their watersheds; these climates provide four alternative scenarios of water supplies to Lake Ontario. The scenarios are analyzed with reference to the present Great Lakes climate. The responses of the Lake Ontario regulation plan to the transposed climate scenarios illustrate several key issues: (1) historical water supplies should no longer be the sole basis for testing and developing lake regulation plans; (2) during extreme supply conditions, none of the regulation criteria can be met simultaneously, priority of interests may change, and new interests may need to be considered, potentially requiring substantial revision to the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; (3) revised regulation criteria should be based on ecosystem health and socio-economic benefits for a wider spectrum of interests and not on frequencies and ranges of levels and flows of the historical climate; and (4) operational management of the lake should be improved under the present climate, and under any future climate with more variability, through the use of improved water supply forecasts and monitoring of current hydrologic conditions.     

Empowering environmentally-burdened communities in the US: A primer on the emerging role for information technology

This article is a primer on the emerging role for Information Technology (IT) in the Environmental Justice (EJ) movement. It explores current and potential uses of IT by EJ organisations fighting to protect vulnerable local environments and it addresses some of the barriers to more widespread movement efficacy via e-advocacy. We argue a chief but not insurmountable barrier is the disproportionate access to, and knowledge of, the benefits of using IT in the struggle for equitable decisions about environmental impacts.     

Reproductive toxicity of trenbolone acetate in embryonically exposed Japanese quail

This study was conducted to assess the effects of a one time embryonic exposure to trenbolone acetate on reproductive development and function in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica). Embryos were exposed to either 0.05, 0.5, 5, or 50microg trenbolone or a sesame oil vehicle control at embryonic day 4. Onset of puberty, gonadal histopathology, sperm motility, cloacal gland size, and male copulatory behavior were assessed in adults. Trenbolone delayed onset of puberty in males, inhibited cloacal gland development, and reduced male reproductive behaviors. Industry laboratories have shown trenbolone acetate to be non-teratogenic in mammalian studies. Our study, however, shows that this one time in ovo exposure delayed onset of puberty in and suppressed adult copulatory behavior in quail males. These results suggest that this one time embryonic exposure to trenbolone may have disrupted development of either the central nervous system or the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. This is the first study to demonstrate a demasculinizing effect on copulatory behavior in Japanese quail from embryonic exposure to a non-aromatizable androgenic chemical. More studies are needed to determine the mechanisms behind the observed effects.     

Bird metacommunities in temperate South American forest: vegetation structure, area, and climate effects

Spatial structure in metacommunities and their relationships to environmental gradients have been linked to opposing theories of community assembly. In particular, while the species sorting hypothesis predicts strong environmental influences, the neutral theory, the mass effect, and the patch dynamics frameworks all predict differing degrees of spatial structure resulting from dispersal and competition limitations. Here we study the relative influence of environmental gradients and spatial structure in bird assemblages of the Chilean temperate forest. We carried out bird and vegetation surveys in South American temperate forests at 147 points located in nine different protected areas in central Chile, and collected meteorological and productivity data for these localities. Species composition dissimilarities between sites were calculated, as well as three indices of bird local diversity: observed species richness, Chao estimate of richness, and Shannon diversity. A stepwise multiple regression and partial regression analyses were used to select a small number of environmental factors that predicted bird species diversity. Although diversity indices were spatially autocorrelated, environmental factors were sufficient to account for this autocorrelation. Moreover, community dissimilarities were not significantly related to distance between sites. We then tested a multivariate hypothesis about climate, vegetation, and avian diversity interactions using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The SEM showed that climate and area of fragments have important indirect effects on avian diversity, mediated through changes in vegetation structure. Given the scale of this study, the metacommunity framework provides useful insights into the mechanisms driving bird assemblages in this region. Taken together, the weak spatial structure of community composition and diversity, as well as the strong environmental effects on bird diversity, support the interpretation that species sorting has a predominant role in structuring avian assemblages in the region.     

Continuous water‐level monitoring in the assessment of groundwater remediation and refinement of a conceptual site model

An Erratum has been published for this article in Remediation 16(1) 2005, 155–157. Water‐level data collection is a fundamental component of groundwater investigations and remediation. While the locations and depths of monitored wells are important, the frequency of data collection may have a large impact on conclusions made about site hydrogeology. Data‐logging water‐level probes may be programmed to record water levels at frequent intervals, providing site decision makers with abundant, detailed information on the response of an aquifer to both anticipated and unforeseen stresses. In this study, a network of movable probes has provided several years of hourly water‐ level data. The understanding of the site's phytoremediation system has been enhanced by the continuous data, but subsequent insights into an unexpected situation regarding the site's infrastructure have been the most valuable result of the monitoring program. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.