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551.
A. Veldkamp P.H. Verburg K. Kok G.H.J. de Koning J. Priess A.R. Bergsma 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2001,6(2):111-121
This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories. 相似文献
552.
The degree at which tropical forests are exposed to human pressure is spatially dependent. Population density, proximity to
roads, terrain slope, logging activities and land distribution projects are well known factors inducing deforestation and
forest degradation in Latin America. Using expert knowledge to weight these threat factors and a Geographical Information
System for spatial modeling, a multi-criteria analysis procedure is presented, that allows stratifying a study region in categories
of deforestation threat. The procedure was implemented in the Central Volcanic Mountain Range Conservation Area (CVMRCA) in
Costa Rica with the purpose of finding areas with a combination of physical and socioeconomic characteristics that is particularly
predisposing to a high probability of deforestation. To validate the map, the CVMRCA was stratified in categories of deforestation
risk, and the result was superposed to historical deforestation data of the period 1986–1996. The good correlation between
risk category and historical deforestation (r = 0.91, p < 0.001) indicates that the map can be used as a decision support tool for defining priority areas for conservation action. 相似文献
553.
The Role of Abatement Costs in GHG Permit Allocations: A Global Stabilization Scenario Analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kathleen Vaillancourt Richard Loulou Amit Kanudia 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(2):169-179
Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions
in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to
determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before permit allocation and
trading). The net abatement costs are then calculated and used for different permit allocation schemes. 相似文献
554.
Babay PA Romero Ale EE Itria RF Becquart ET Thiele B Batistoni DA 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2008,10(4):443-452
In the present work we have developed an analytical methodology for the determination of nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and di-ethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO) in water samples. The applicability of this methodology was proved by means of the analysis of environmentally relevant aqueous samples from Buenos Aires. This constitutes a starting point for a rigorous assessment of the incidence of NPnEO surfactants in Argentina, as only very few, qualitative or semi-quantitative data on the occurrence of these compounds in local systems were available up to this time. Enrichment of the analytes was carried out by solid-phase extraction on a C-18 sorbent, followed by elution with ethyl acetate. Normal-phase high performance liquid chromatography on an amino-silica column and fluorescence detection at excitation-emission wavelengths of 230-300 nm were employed for separation and quantification of the analytes. Confirmation of peak assignment in selected real samples was performed by off-line coupling HPLC with GC-MS analysis. A non-polar GC capillary column was used, and a characteristic peak pattern was obtained for the alkyl chain isomers of each ethoxylated homologue and NP. GC-MS analyses yielded in all cases purity levels higher than 80% for the HPLC collected fractions. The elevated concentrations found for the estrogenic metabolites of NPnEO are in accordance with an unrestricted use of this class of non-ionic surfactants in the country. 相似文献
555.
Because of fast urban sprawl, land use competition, and the gap in available funds and needed funds, municipal decision makers
and planners are looking for more cost-effective and sustainable ways to improve their sewer infrastructure systems. The dominant
approaches have turned to planning the sanitary sewer systems within a regional context, while the decentralized and on-site/cluster
wastewater systems have not overcome the application barriers. But regionalization policy confers uncertainties and risks
upon cities while planning for future events. Following the philosophy of smart growth, this paper presents several optimal
expansion schemes for a fast-growing city in the US/Mexico borderlands—the city of Pharr in Texas under uncertainty. The waste
stream generated in Pharr is divided into three distinct sewer sheds within the city limit, including south region, central
region, and north region. The options available include routing the wastewater to a neighboring municipality (i.e., McAllen)
for treatment and reuse, expanding the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the south sewer shed, and constructing
a new WWTP in the north sewer shed. Traditional deterministic least-cost optimization applied in the first stage can provide
a cost-effective and technology-based decision without respect to associated uncertainties system wide. As the model is primarily
driven by the fees charged for wastewater transfer, sensitivity analysis was emphasized by the inclusion of varying flat-rate
fees for adjustable transfer schemes before contracting process that may support the assessment of fiscal benefits to all
parties involved. Yet uncertainties might arise from wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, and cost increase in constructing
and operating the new wastewater treatment plant simultaneously. When dealing with multiple sources of uncertainty, the grey
mixed integer programming (GIP) model, formulated in the second stage, can further allow all sources of uncertainties to propagate
throughout the optimization context, simultaneously leading to determine a wealth of optimal decisions within a reasonable
range. Both models ran for three 5-year periods beginning in 2005 and ending in 2020. The dynamic outputs of this analysis
reflect the systematic concerns about integrative uncertainties within this decision analysis, which enable decision makers
and stakeholders to make all-inclusive decisions for sanitary sewer system expansion in an economically growing region. 相似文献
556.
Matteo Carpentieri Paolo Giambini Andrea Corti 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(3):415-429
Several wind tunnel experiments of tracer dispersion from reduced-scale landfill models are presented in this paper. Different
experimental set-ups, hot-wire anemometry, particle image velocimetry and tracer concentration measurements were used for
the characterisation of flow and dispersion phenomena nearby the models. The main aim of these experiments is to build an
extensive experimental data set useful for model validation purposes. To demonstrate the potentiality of the experimental
data set, a validation exercise on several mathematical models was performed by means of a statistical technique. The experiments
highlighted an increase in pollutant ground level concentrations immediately downwind from the landfill because of induced
turbulence and mean flow deflection. This phenomenon turns out to be predominant for the dispersion process. Tests with a
different set-up showed an important dependence of the dispersion phenomena from the landfill height and highlighted how complex
orographic conditions downwind of the landfill do not affect significantly the dispersion behaviour. Validation exercises
were useful for model calibration, improving code reliability, as well as evaluating performances. The Van Ulden model proved
to give the most encouraging results. 相似文献
557.
558.
We present a new mathematical programming framework that is adaptable to a variety of spatially explicit landscape problems
in environmental investment, conservation, and land-use planning, transport planning, and agriculture. As part of capturing
spatial interdependencies, the framework considers decision variables at two levels, finely spaced grid cells and landholdings.
We applied the framework to an environmental investment problem using objective functions representing biodiversity and carbon
sequestration. We also tested the model to optimize the path of a road through part of the landscape. Using the Nambucca case
study in eastern Australia, we applied a hybrid greedy randomised adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to find solutions to the
model. 相似文献
559.
Felix Deutsch Jean Vankerkom Liliane Janssen Filip Lefebre Clemens Mensink Frans Fierens Gerwin Dumont Edward Roekens 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(3):431-437
The European Operational Smog (EUROS) integrated air quality modelling system has been extended to model fine particulate
matter (PM). From an extended literature study, the Caltech Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics,
Reaction, Ionisation and Dissolution were selected and recently coupled to EUROS. Currently, modelling of mass and chemical
composition of aerosols in two size fractions (PM2.5 and PM10–2.5) is possible. The chemical composition is expressed in terms of seven components: ammonium, nitrate, sulphate, elementary
carbon, primary inorganic compounds, primary organic compounds and secondary organic compounds. Calculated PM10 concentrations and chemical composition are presented for two summer months of the year 2003 (1 July to 31 August). 相似文献
560.
We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model
was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this
formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community,
and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability
is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the
African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced
long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters
influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable
diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus,
given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas
should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived
elephant threats to vegetation. 相似文献