An Integrated Assessment by Models for Energy Systems Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment with a Case Study of Advanced Fossil-Fired Power Plants in China

We developed an integrated assessment (IA) using models for energy systems analysis and life-cycle assessment (LCA). Based on this assessment framework, we developed cost-benefit analysis (CBA) case studies for a hypothetical project designed to introduce advanced fossil-fired power generation technologies in China. Our MARKAL model for Japan confirmed that radical reductions (i.e., 80 % by 2050) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) could be attained from energy systems alone and that credit for emission allowances was required. We evaluated life-cycle costs and emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur oxide, and nitrogen oxide gases for the energy technologies using an LCA model. Further, we applied a power generation planning model for six Chinese grids to provide a power mix structure, potentially producing credit by installing fossil-fired power generation technology and by using baseline grid emission factors with an average cost of electricity. Finally, by using dynamic emission reductions and additional costs from the two models, we conducted case studies of CBA for a hypothetical project to install the technologies in China. This was accomplished by evaluating emission reductions in monetary terms and by applying a life-cycle impact assessment model. A unique feature of our IA is its dynamic (time-varying) assessment of costs and benefits.     

Emission-based static traffic assignment models

Tailpipe emissions in the road transportation system are a major source of air pollution and greenhouse gases. One of the possible approaches is to influence drivers’ routing decisions such that the emissions and fuel consumption is minimized. In order to evaluate such condition, we develop environmental traffic assignment (E-TA) models based on user equilibrium (UE) and system optimal (SO) behavioral principles. Extending the traditional travel time-based UE and SO principles to E-TA is not straightforward because, unlike travel time, the rate of emissions increases with the increase in vehicle speed beyond a certain point. The results of various TA models show a network-wide traffic control strategy in which vehicles are routed according to SO-based E-TA, can reduce system-wide emissions. However, a system in which drivers make routing decisions to minimize their own emissions (E-UE system) results in a paradoxical situation of increased individual as well as system-wide emissions.     

Valuing Flood Risk Reductions

A choice experiment is used to estimate how Vietnamese households value a flood risk reduction. The empirical analysis is conducted on a sample of households located in the Nghe An Province, one of the provinces which is the most affected by floods in Vietnam. The results reveal that there is a high level of heterogeneity in preferences across households. We compute the willingness to pay (WTP) for a flood risk reduction, and we identify how it relates to different attributes of flood management policies (reduction of economic losses, reduction of human losses, political level in charge of implementing the flood management policy). In particular, the marginal WTP for reducing the flood fatality rate, which can be interpreted as the value of statistical life (VSL), varies from 2 517 million VND (approximately 120,818 USD) to 3 590 million VND (approximately 172,323 USD) depending on the model considered. The VSL represents between 77 and 111 times the annual household average income in our sample, a result in line with previous estimates in similar countries.     

Modelling the Balance of Metals in the Amended Soil for the Case of ‘Atmosphere–Plant–Soil’ System

Changing the concepts of economic development and introducing new amendments can hardly decrease the accumulation in the soil of such pollutants as metals, remaining there for a long time. The predictive models for describing the balance of metals in the soil, which are based on the ‘atmosphere–plant–soil’ system and reflect the complicated physical–chemical nature of the metals’ migration, expressed by coefficients obtained in long-term observations in natural conditions, allow for evaluating long-term concentration of metals in the soil. The model BALANS evaluates self-purification of soil, taking into account the uptake of metals of aerogenic origin by the soil together with amendments, their physical–chemical migration and the type of microrelief determining its intensity as well as the absorbed biomass of plants and the removal of metals with crops. In this model, the half-period of metals’ washing out from the soil, found for the microrelief characteristic of low places, exceeds 200 years for Ni, Cr and Pb and makes 90 and 150 years for Zn and Cu, respectively.     

On the Environmental Efficiency of Water Storage: the Case of a Conjunctive use of Ground and Rainwater

Rainwater harvesting, consisting in collecting runoff from precipitation, has been widely developed to stop groundwater declines and even raise water tables. However, this expected environmental effect is not self-evident. We show in a simple setting that the success of this conjunctive use depends on whether the runoff rate is above a threshold value. Moreover, the bigger the storage capacity, the higher the runoff rate must be to obtain an environmentally efficient system. We also extend the model to include other hydrological parameters and ecological damages, which respectively increase and decrease the environmental efficiency of rainwater harvesting.     

The Role of Wind in Modeling of Oil Pollution Transport and Diffusion in the Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf ecosystem is facing a variety of stresses as a result of being located within the richest oil province in the world, which hosts more than 67 % of the world oil reserve. In this paper, the distribution of oil pollution on the surface layer of the Persian Gulf is predicted for the different months after the release, based on the Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological model for Regional Shelf seas (COHERENS). An Eulerian model for the Persian Gulf is set up using the Cartesian coordinate in the horizontal direction, and the sigma coordinate in the vertical direction. Based on this model, our analysis and simulation results indicate that the winds lead to diffusion of the contaminant concentration in the direction of the Arabian coast from the initial position of the spill. The results of this study can be used to provide appropriate solutions for preventing oil from spreading further in the region.     

The use of sensory perception indicators for improving the characterization and modelling of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in soils

This paper proposes a multistep approach for creating a 3D stochastic model of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in potentially polluted soils of a deactivated oil storage site by using chemical analysis results as primary or hard data and classes of sensory perception variables as secondary or soft data. First, the statistical relationship between the sensory perception variables (e.g. colour, odour and oil–water reaction) and TPH grade is analysed, after which the sensory perception variable exhibiting the highest correlation is selected (oil–water reaction in this case study). The probabilities of cells belonging to classes of oil–water reaction are then estimated for the entire soil volume using indicator kriging. Next, local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell are computed, combining the probabilities of belonging to a specific sensory perception indicator class and conditional to the simulated values of TPH grade. Finally, simulated images of TPH grade are generated by using the P-field simulation algorithm, utilising the local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell. The set of simulated TPH values allows several calculations to be performed, such as average values, local uncertainties and the probability of the TPH grade of the soil exceeding a specific threshold value.