Uncertainties in integrated assessment modelling of abatement strategies: illustrations with the ASAM model

Following the signing of the Second Sulphur Protocol in 1994 under the 1979 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, preparations are now underway for a new multi-pollutant multi-effects protocol, under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE). A number of scientific models have been used to provide policy makers involved in these preparations with sound scientific information. These include the Abatement Strategies Assessment Model (ASAM). ASAM has recently been extended to cover abatement strategies for NH₃ and NOx as well as SO₂, in order to address the amelioration of acidification and eutrophication in the ECE region. It is important to be able to demonstrate that the scientific information provided to policy makers is robust to uncertainties, and hence there is a need for a thorough sensitivity analysis. In this study ASAM is used to demonstrate a large degree of robustness of derived abatement strategies to uncertainties in critical loads, meteorological data and cost information. This is based on a comparison of strategies at the same overall abatement cost. Systematic changes in data are shown to influence model results more profoundly than random changes.     

Towards resolving the phosphorus chaos created by food systems

Ambio - The chaotic distribution and dispersal of phosphorus (P) used in food systems (defined here as disorderly disruptions to the P cycle) is harming our environment beyond acceptable limits. An...     

关于欧盟植物保护品对鸟类和哺乳动物的风险评估的反思：过去、现在和未来

植物保护品在农作物上的使用会导致鸟类和哺乳动物接触有毒化学物质。在欧盟,关于此类暴露的风险评估均以当前(2009)欧洲食品安全局(EFSA)颁布的指导性文件为依据,与之前的版本相比,该文件在理论风险评估的可实现性方面有所提高(SANCO/4145/2000)。自从7年前实施2009 EFSA 指导性文件以来,基于此已经对众多植物保护品的毒性进行了成功地评估。然而,在今后的修订版本中仍然存在需要改进的重要方面。这篇焦点文章讨论了目前方案的风险评估经验,包括输入参数的保守水平和监管当局的解释以及如何在不远的将来对指导性文件进行修订提出建议。明确了推进指导文件的几方面建议,例如与生态相关的鸟类和哺乳动物生殖端点的推导和情境风险评估中建模方法的使用。在完善现有数据库方面,本文也有所强调,包括校对全欧洲相关焦点物种和扩大食物残留数据库。为了能够在将来形成一个真实可用的指导性文件,强烈建议在产业、监管和欧洲食品安全局等部门之间进行开放和建设性的沟通和交流。这样的合作也将鼓励会员国之间的融合,从而减轻产业和监管机构工作负荷。
精选自Amy C. Brooks, Mike Fryer, Alan Lawrence, Juan Pascual, Rachel Sharp. Reflections on bird and mammal risk assessment for plant protection products in the European Union: past, present and future. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 565–575, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3719
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3719/full
     

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Regional Environmental Change - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A...     

Sources, sinks, and exposure pathways of lead in urban garden soil

The chemistry of Pb in urban soil must be understood in order to limit human exposure to Pb in soil and produce and to implement remediation schemes. In inner-city gardens where Pb contamination is prevalent and financial resources are limited, it is critical to identify the variables that control Pb bioavailability. Field-portable X-ray fluorescence was used to measure Pb in 103 urban gardens in Roxbury and Dorchester, MA, and 88% were found to contain Pb above the USEPA reportable limit of 400 mug g(-1). Phosphorus, iron, loss on ignition, and pH data were collected, Pb-bearing phases were identified by X-ray diffraction, and Pb isotopes were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Four test crops were grown both in situ and in Roxbury soil in a greenhouse, and plant tissue was analyzed for Pb uptake by polarized energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence. Variation at the neighborhood scale in soil mineralogical and chemical characteristics suggests that the bioavailable fraction of Pb in gardens is site specific. Based on Pb isotope analysis, two historical Pb sources appear to dominate the inventory of Pb in Roxbury gardens: leaded gasoline ((207) Pb/(206) Pb = 0.827) and Pb-based paint ((207)Pb/(206) Pb = 0.867). Nearly 70% of the samples analyzed can be isotopically described by mixing these two end members, with Pb-based paint contributing 40 to 80% of the mass balance. A simplified urban human exposure model suggests that the consumption of produce from urban gardens is equivalent to approximately 10 to 25% of children's daily exposure from tap water. Furthermore, analysis of over 60 samples of plant tissue from the four test species suggests that in these urban gardens unamended phytoremediation is an inadequate tool for decreasing soil Pb.     

Review of unsaturated-zone transport and attenuation of volatile organic compound (VOC) plumes leached from shallow source zones

Reliable prediction of the unsaturated zone transport and attenuation of dissolved-phase VOC (volatile organic compound) plumes leached from shallow source zones is a complex, multi-process, environmental problem. It is an important problem as sources, which include solid-waste landfills, aqueous-phase liquid discharge lagoons and NAPL releases partially penetrating the unsaturated zone, may persist for decades. Natural attenuation processes operating in the unsaturated zone that, uniquely for VOCs includes volatilisation, may, however, serve to protect underlying groundwater and potentially reduce the need for expensive remedial actions. Review of the literature indicates that only a few studies have focused upon the overall leached VOC source and plume scenario as a whole. These are mostly modelling studies that often involve high strength, non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) sources for which density-induced and diffusive vapour transport is significant. Occasional dissolved-phase aromatic hydrocarbon controlled infiltration field studies also exist. Despite this lack of focus on the overall problem, a wide range of process-based unsaturated zone - VOC research has been conducted that may be collated to build good conceptual model understanding of the scenario, particularly for the much studied aromatic hydrocarbons and chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs). In general, the former group is likely to be attenuated in the unsaturated zone due to their ready aerobic biodegradation, albeit with rate variability across the literature, whereas the fate of the latter is far less likely to be dominated by a single mechanism and dependent upon the relative importance of the various attenuation processes within individual site - VOC scenarios. Analytical and numerical modelling tools permit effective process representation of the whole scenario, albeit with potential for inclusion of additional processes - e.g., multi-mechanistic sorption phase partitioning, and provide good opportunity for further sensitivity analysis and development to practitioner use. There remains a significant need to obtain intermediate laboratory-scale and particularly field-scale (actual site and controlled release) datasets that address the scenario as a whole and permit validation of the available models. Integrated assessment of the range of simultaneous processes that combine to influence leached plume generation, transport and attenuation in the unsaturated zone is required. Component process research needs are required across the problem scenario and include: the simultaneous volatilisation and dissolution of source zones; development of appropriate field-scale dispersion estimates for the unsaturated zone; assessment of transient VOC exchanges between aqueous, vapour and sorbed phases and their influence upon plume attenuation; development of improved field methods to recognise and quantify biodegradation of CAHs; establishment of the influence of co-contaminants; and, finally, translation of research findings into more robust practitioner practice.     

Accumulation of platinum group elements by the marine gastropod Littorina littorea

The accumulation and trophic transfer of the platinum group elements (PGE): Rh, Pd and Pt; have been studied in short-term (5 day) exposures conducted in aquaria containing the marine macroalga, Ulva lactuca, and/or the grazing mollusc, Littorina littorea. Metals added to sea water (to concentrations of 20 μg L⁻¹) were taken up by U. lactuca in the order Rh, Pt > Pd and by L. littorea in the order Pd ≥ Pt ≥ Rh, with greatest metal accumulation in the latter generally occurring in the visceral complex and kidney. When fed contaminated alga, accumulation of Rh and Pd by L. littorea, relative to total available metal, increased by an order of magnitude, while accumulation of Pt was not readily detected. We conclude that the diet is the most important vector for accumulation of Rh and Pd, while accumulation of Pt appears to proceed mainly from the aqueous phase.     

Validating a nondestructive optical method for apportioning colored particulate matter into black carbon and additional components

Exposure of black carbon (BC) is associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. A number of optical methods for estimating BC on Teflon filters have been adopted but most assume all light absorption is due to BC while other sources of colored particulate matter exist. Recently, a four-wavelength-optical reflectance measurement for distinguishing second hand cigarette smoke (SHS) from soot-BC was developed (Brook et al., 2010; Lawless et al., 2004). However, the method has not been validated for soot-BC nor SHS and little work has been done to look at the methodological issues of the optical reflectance measurements for samples that could have SHS, BC, and other colored particles. We refined this method using a lab-modified integrating sphere with absorption measured continuously from 350 nm to 1000 nm. Furthermore, we characterized the absorption spectrum of additional components of particulate matter (PM) on PM(2.5) filters including ammonium sulfate, hematite, goethite, and magnetite. Finally, we validate this method for BC by comparison to other standard methods. Use of synthesized data indicates that it is important to optimize the choice of wavelengths to minimize computational errors as additional components (more than 2) are added to the apportionment model of colored components. We found that substantial errors are introduced when using 4 wavelengths suggested by Lawless et al. to quantify four substances, while an optimized choice of wavelengths can reduce model-derived error from over 10% to less than 2%. For environmental samples, the method was sensitive for estimating airborne levels of BC and SHS, but not mass loadings of iron oxides and sulfate. Duplicate samples collected in NYC show high reproducibility (points consistent with a 1:1 line, R(2) = 0.95). BC data measured by this method were consistent with those measured by other optical methods, including Aethalometer and Smoke-stain Reflectometer (SSR); although the SSR looses sensitivity at filter loadings above 90 ng/mm(2). Furthermore, positive correlations (R(2) = 0.7) were observed between EC measured by NIOSH Method 5040 on quartz filters and BC measured in co-located Teflon filter samples collected from both heating and non-heating seasons. Overall, the validation data demonstrates the usefulness of this method to evaluate BC from archived Teflon filters while potentially providing additional component information.     

Evaluation of low wind modeling approaches for two tall-stack databases

The performance of the AERMOD air dispersion model under low wind speed conditions, especially for applications with only one level of meteorological data and no direct turbulence measurements or vertical temperature gradient observations, is the focus of this study. The analysis documented in this paper addresses evaluations for low wind conditions involving tall stack releases for which multiple years of concurrent emissions, meteorological data, and monitoring data are available. AERMOD was tested on two field-study databases involving several SO₂ monitors and hourly emissions data that had sub-hourly meteorological data (e.g., 10-min averages) available using several technical options: default mode, with various low wind speed beta options, and using the available sub-hourly meteorological data. These field study databases included (1) Mercer County, a North Dakota database featuring five SO₂ monitors within 10 km of the Dakota Gasification Company’s plant and the Antelope Valley Station power plant in an area of both flat and elevated terrain, and (2) a flat-terrain setting database with four SO₂ monitors within 6 km of the Gibson Generating Station in southwest Indiana. Both sites featured regionally representative 10-m meteorological databases, with no significant terrain obstacles between the meteorological site and the emission sources. The low wind beta options show improvement in model performance helping to reduce some of the overprediction biases currently present in AERMOD when run with regulatory default options. The overall findings with the low wind speed testing on these tall stack field-study databases indicate that AERMOD low wind speed options have a minor effect for flat terrain locations, but can have a significant effect for elevated terrain locations. The performance of AERMOD using low wind speed options leads to improved consistency of meteorological conditions associated with the highest observed and predicted concentration events. The available sub-hourly modeling results using the Sub-Hourly AERMOD Run Procedure (SHARP) are relatively unbiased and show that this alternative approach should be seriously considered to address situations dominated by low-wind meander conditions.

Implications: AERMOD was evaluated with two tall stack databases (in North Dakota and Indiana) in areas of both flat and elevated terrain. AERMOD cases included the regulatory default mode, low wind speed beta options, and use of the Sub-Hourly AERMOD Run Procedure (SHARP). The low wind beta options show improvement in model performance (especially in higher terrain areas), helping to reduce some of the overprediction biases currently present in regulatory default AERMOD. The SHARP results are relatively unbiased and show that this approach should be seriously considered to address situations dominated by low-wind meander conditions.