Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Regional Environmental Change - This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under...     

A lagrangian dispersion model for calculating concentration distribution within a built-up domain

A Lagrangian model to study the dispersion of pollutants between urban buildings is described. The flow field is supplied by an objective analysis (Rockle (1990) Ph.D. thesis, Vom Fachbereich Mechanik, der Technischen Hochschule Darmstadt, Germany) and is adjusted to satisfy the continuity equation. From the resulting; mass consistent field the Lagrangian diffusion parameters are eliminated. A 3-D Lagrangian diffusion model in a nonhomogeneous field is applied to calculate the pollutant distribution between the buildings. Several examples are studied and compared to wind tunnel measurements.     

Are all chromosome microarrays the same? What clinicians need to know

Microarray testing is the recommended first-tier diagnostic test for women who undergo invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures. It is well-established that microarray analysis provides information regarding copy number for changes (or copy number variants, CNVs) that may be below the resolution level of standard chromosome analysis, and that such CNVs are not related to maternal age. What may not be appreciated by ordering providers, however, are the technical differences among laboratories with respect to the established laboratory cutoff values for reporting, the definition of targeted versus nontargeted regions, and how these differences may affect the interpretation and reporting of findings which, in turn, affects counseling and possible follow-up testing of family members. Here, we provide a detailed explanation of these technical factors and clarify how they practically impact diagnostic results.     

Upward movement of plutonium to surface sediments during an 11-year field study

An 11-year lysimeter study was established to monitor the movement of Pu through vadose zone sediments. Sediment Pu concentrations as a function of depth indicated that some Pu moved upward from the buried source material. Subsequent numerical modeling suggested that the upward movement was largely the result of invading grasses taking up the Pu and translocating it upward. The objective of this study was to determine if the Pu of surface sediments originated from atmosphere fallout or from the buried lysimeter source material (weapons-grade Pu), providing additional evidence that plants were involved in the upward migration of Pu. The ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu and ²⁴²Pu/²³⁹Pu atomic fraction ratios of the lysimeter surface sediments, as determined by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectroscopy (TIMS), were 0.063 and 0.00045, respectively; consistent with the signatures of the weapons-grade Pu. Our numerical simulations indicate that because plants create a large water flux, small concentrations over multiple years may result in a measurable accumulation of Pu on the ground surface. These results may have implications on the conceptual model for calculating risk associated with long-term stewardship and monitored natural attenuation management of Pu contaminated subsurface and surface sediments.     

Environmental performance and practice across sectors: methodology and preliminary results

This paper introduces a new methodology for measuring and modeling manufacturers’ environmental performance and the managerial and technological practices that affect it. Facility level licensing data are used to develop indicators based on sector-specific criteria but capable of being analyzed across sectors, at various levels of aggregation. This addresses the problem that environmental performance and determinants tend to be highly context-specific, while modeling and policy interests are often more general. Using Integrated Pollution Control (IPC) information generated EU-wide, this approach should be capable of cross-country extension. The methodology is tested on a sample of Irish facilities in three sectors during 1996–2004. Preliminary results show its usefulness in exploring the determinants of environmental performance at the sector and cross sector levels. Word count = 10,049.     

Parasitism and a shortage of refuges jointly mediate the strength of density dependence in a reef fish

Various predator-prey, host-pathogen, and competitive interactions can combine to cause density dependence in population growth. Despite this possibility, most empirical tests for density-dependent interactions have focused on single mechanisms. Here we tested the hypothesis that two mechanisms of density dependence, parasitism and a shortage of refuges, jointly influence the strength of density-dependent mortality. We used mark-recapture analysis to estimate mortality of the host species, the bridled goby (Coryphopterus glaucofraenum). Sixty-three marked gobies were infected with a copepod gill parasite (Pharodes tortugensis), and 188 were uninfected. We used the spatial scale at which gobies were clustered naturally (approximately 4 m2) as an ecologically relevant neighborhood and measured goby density and the availability of refuges from predators within each goby's neighborhood. Goby survival generally declined with increasing density, and this decline was steeper for gobies with access to few refuges than for gobies in neighborhoods where refuges were common. The negative effects of high density and refuge shortage were also more severe for parasitized gobies than for gobies free of parasites. This parasite has characteristics typical of emerging diseases and appears to have altered the strength of a preexisting density-dependent interaction.     

Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

IntroductionRecent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act of 2011.MethodThe current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009.ResultsResults show that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because of inattentive and risky driving.