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Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Doñana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods—analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights—that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and even more so under an increased water scarcity scenario.  相似文献   
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Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.  相似文献   
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Abstract

The industrialization of the agricultural sector has significantly increased the use of chemicals such as pesticides. Therefore, exposure to them is unavoidable, which makes it necessary to assess their safety for humans at actual exposure doses. This paper aims to determine toxicity of three types of pesticides toward human immune cells (HL-60 and U-937): glyphosate (GLY), deltamethrin (DEL), and chlorothalonil (CHL). Cell viability, membrane integrity, inflammation induction, and antioxidant activity were evaluated to determine differences in cellular response to the tested plant protection agents. In experimental models, all tested substances caused increased mortality of cells after only 24?h. Cell membrane damage was recorded under DEL and CHL influences. The largest disintegration of the cell membrane was due to the action of 100?μg/mL DEL for U-937 and CHL at 1?μg/mL for HL-60. GLY at a concentration of 3,600?μg/mL caused significant peroxidation of U-937 cells’ lipids. CHL-induced inflammation in both types of cells tested. DEL and GLY also induced antioxidant activity in cells. These results lead to the conclusion that the tested pesticides act cytotoxically to the cells of the human immune system in doses to which both farmers and consumers are exposed.  相似文献   
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A study of the effects of different XAD-resins, bed volume, flow rate, pH and type of eluent on the extraction of organic mutagens from surface water is presented. XAD-4/8 is as effective as XAD-2 in concentrating organic mutagens from surface water and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is as efficient as acetone in eluting the adsorbed organic mutagens. The latter allows direct testing up to 0.5 ml of DMSO concentrate in the Ames test. Variation of the pH of the water after passing the XAD-4/8, followed by readsorption, shows that the majority of the mutagenic activity due to dissolved organics is adsorbed at neutral pH. Only a minor fraction is readsorbed at pH 3. Further a XAD-4/8 concentrate and a similar concentrate prepared by freeze drying gives similar mutagenic activity. This indicates that many of the organic mutagens are recovered in the XAD-4/8 concentrate.It is concluded that adsorption on XAD-4/8, followed by direct testing of the DMSO eluates in the Ames test, presents a rapid and relatively simple way to detect low concentrations of organic mutagens in surface water. The general suitability of the method is shown for different types of surface water.  相似文献   
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