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951.
Asbjørn Aaheim Anton Orlov Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi Priya Joshi Anitha Sagadevan N.H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(4):485-505
There is a range of problems in assessing how protection of a specific forest to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) affect global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper shows how knowledge and information about the biophysical characteristics of forests can be combined with theories of forest management and economic behaviour to derive the impacts on global emissions of REDD+. A modelling experiment from India, where 10% of the forest plantations in eight different regions are protected, shows that the biophysical characteristics of forests are decisive for the global impacts on emissions. In regions with slow-growing forests, agents in the non-protected forests are able to increase their output significantly to fill the demand from the protected forests. This opportunity is strictly limited in regions with fast-growing forests. Therefore, prices increase far more in regions with fast-growing forests than in slow-growing forests. Over time, the markets for Indian forestry products contribute to reduce the resulting price differences across regions. When the carbon uptake from protected forests approaches zero, the leakage of emissions to other Indian forests is between 20 and 40%. Only a small part of this is international leakage. Combining different models also helps to identify knowledge gaps, and to distinguish gaps that potentially may be filled with data and new knowledge, and gaps due to different angling of modelling biophysical processes and modelling of economic behaviour. 相似文献
952.
Žiga Malek Peter H. Verburg 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(6):821-837
Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems. When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water. 相似文献
953.
Elia A Machado Samuel Ratick 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(7):1109-1141
Composite indices are used to assess and prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing the impacts of global environmental change. We evaluate different aggregation tools for creating these indices and their potential effects on mitigation and adaptation efforts. We assess the association of each aggregation tool with different types of trade-offs, risk strategies, and the resulting spatial and statistical distribution of their composite scores. Four aggregation tools are investigated (Weighted Linear Combination, WLC; Ordered Weighted Average, OWA; Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA; Compromise Programming, CP) using an example of vulnerability to flooding in the eastern United States. The choice of aggregation tool affects vulnerability outcomes, decision risk strategies, and the prioritization of vulnerability reduction strategies. DEA produces the highest vulnerability scores, representing a risk averse strategy associated with pessimistic outcomes. WLC implies a neutral and fixed risk strategy. CP produces a range of outcomes from neutral (equivalent to the WLC) to pessimistic, depending on its parameters. OWA offers the highest flexibility to adjust the levels of trade-off and risk strategy, producing a range of vulnerability outcomes, from optimistic to pessimistic. The units of analysis, when prioritized across the different aggregation tools, are more consistent for the top ranked units. However, the differences in rank become substantial as the selection threshold score decreases. To obtain better informed vulnerability reduction strategies, we recommend to (i) address how trade-off and decision risk are embedded in the aggregation tool chosen, and (ii) evaluate their effect in the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation strategies being considered. 相似文献
954.
Walter Q. Betancourt Sherif Abd-Elmaksoud Charles P. Gerba 《Food and environmental virology》2018,10(2):209-211
This study examined the efficacy of reovirus concentration from large volumes of water using two positively charged filters: Zeta Plus 1MDS and NanoCeram. The results indicated that an average of 61 and 81% of input reoviruses were effectively recovered, respectively, from recycled water and tap water using NanoCeram filtration. 相似文献
955.
A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mark A. Finney Isaac C. Grenfell Charles W. McHugh Robert C. Seli Diane Trethewey Richard D. Stratton Stuart Brittain 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2011,16(2):153-167
An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland
fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index,
and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis
is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically
generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from
joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands
of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods
is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and
comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with
observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires
whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated. 相似文献
956.
Armando A. Rodriguez Oguzhan Cifdaloz John Martin Anderies Marco A. Janssen Jeffrey Dickeson 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2011,16(1):15-36
This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which
uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the
traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity
and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability
analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages
of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very
sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer
model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results
in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate
fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the
framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance. 相似文献
957.
Matjaž Hriberšek Niko Samec Jure Ravnik Matej Zadravec 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2011,16(5):479-489
The contribution presents numerical simulation of gypsum particles, lifting from a gypsum landfill. First, particle characteristics
are presented, resulting from different technologies of gypsum depositing. Next, a laboratory experiment parameter validation
tests are described, which served as a means of determination of mass flow of particles from the landfill. The background
of the numerical simulations, used in the assessment of landfill impact on the environment, is also described. Simulations
consist of two parts: simulation of a long term impact of the particles on the surrounding area, performed by implementation
of the Gaussian dispersion model based computer code ISC3, and second, a CFD based simulation for assessing the flow and mass
concentration fields in the vicinity of the landfill for several pre-selected flow cases. The results of both computational
approaches are presented and compared. In the conclusions, a relation of the simulation results with existing environmental
pollution levels is made, and recommendations for landfill management are drawn. 相似文献
958.
A 2D analytical turbulent diffusion model for particle dispersion and deposition at different heights along the pipe flow and circumferential deposition has been developed. This liquid–solid turbulent diffusion model presented in this paper has emanated from an existing gas–liquid turbulent diffusion model. This model can be used as a handy tool for quick estimation one and two-dimensional deposition fluxes of particles in water distribution networks. A comprehensive 3D numerical investigation has been carried out using multiphase mixture model available in “Fluent 6.2” to verify the above analytical model. Different particles sizes and densities were used for 3D numerical investigations. The deposition was studied as a function of particle diameter, density, and fluid velocity. The deposition of particles, along the periphery of the pipe wall and at different depths, was investigated. Both the models findings matched with qualitative phenomena such as deposition of heavier particles at the bottom of the pipe wall were higher at lower velocities and lower at higher velocities. The lighter particles were found mostly suspended with homogeneous distribution. Smaller particles were also suspended with marginal higher concentration near the bottom of the pipe wall. This marginal higher concentration of the smaller particles was found to be slightly pronounced for lower velocity. These analogies of particles are well discussed with the ratio between free-flight velocity and the gravitational settling velocity. Extended analytical model results were compared with the 3D computational fluid dynamics simulation results. Discrepancies in the model results were discussed. 相似文献
959.
Groundwater flow modelling is an important tool in simulating and predicting hydraulic behaviour of groundwater transporting
in the domain consisted of groundwater flow zone (aquifer) and permeable reactive barriers (PRBs). The aquifer regime is modelled
using the Darcy equation, whereas PRBs are simulated by the Brinkman equation. By combining the above equations, the present
paper is devoted to analyse the effect of permeability of aquifer (K
aq
) and reactive media (K
p
), groundwater flow velocity, and barrier size as well as assembled style of barriers on key barrier design parameter, such
as the hydraulic capture zone width. The simulations indicate that the capture zone width generally decreases with a decrease
in K
p
at a given K
aq
; however, there is relatively little decrease in capture zone width when the K
p
of freshly installed reactive media is roughly 10 times higher than the K
aq
. For a given barrier system, the absolute capture zone width increases with an increase in barrier size, whereas the increment
of relative capture zone width decreases dramatically. Although the capture zone width remains relatively unchanged as groundwater
flow velocity increases, it results in a shorter residence time in the reactive media that may require greater barrier thickness
so that contaminant levels can be reduced to regulatory limits. In addition, the effect of parallel barriers interaction on
the capture zone width should be incorporated into the design. The present paper is based on the continuous reactive barrier
and homogeneous barrier system. Similar methods can be used to analyse the hydrodynamics of funnel-and-gate system and heterogeneous
settings by the appropriate modification. 相似文献
960.
Subbiah Seenivasan NarayananNair Muraleedharan 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2011,176(1-4):365-371
Tea is considered as a ‘health beverage’ due its antioxidant properties and resultant beneficial effects on human health. Such a beverage should be free from toxic elements such as pesticide residues and heavy metals. A large scale survey of teas produced in the tea factories of south India had been carried out for a period of three years from 2006 to 2008 and 912 tea samples were analysed for the residues of certain pesticides such as dicofol, ethion, quinalphos, hexaconazole, fenpropathrin, fenvalerate and propargite which are used for pest and disease control in tea in this part of the country. The analytical data proved that only less than 0.5 percentage of tea samples had residues of these pesticides. However, residues of pesticides were below their maximum limits in tea, stipulated by the European Union, Codex Alimentarius Commission of FAO/WHO and Prevention of Food Adulteration Act of Govt. of India. 相似文献