Development of Artificial Neural Network Based Metamodels for Inactivation of Anthrax Spores in Ventilated Spaces Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

ABSTRACT

Linear, quadratic, and artificial neural network (ANN)-based metamodels were developed for predicting the extent of anthrax spore inactivation by chlorine dioxide in a ventilated three-dimensional space over time from computational fluid dynamics model (CFD) simulation data. Dimensionless groups were developed to define the design space of the problem scenario. The Hammersley sequence sampling (HSS) method was used to determine the sampling points for the numerical experiments within the design space. A CFD model, comprised of multiple submodels, was applied to conduct the numerical experiments. Large eddy simulation (LES) with the Smagorinsky subgrid-scale model was applied to compute the airflow. Anthrax spores were modeled as a dispersed solid phase using the Lagrangian treatment. The disinfectant transport was calculated by solving a mass transport equation. Kinetic decay constants were included for spontaneous decay of the disinfectant and for the reaction of the disinfectant with the surfaces of the three-dimensional space. To enhance the mixing of the disinfectant with the room air, a momentum source was included in the simulation. An inactivation rate equation accounted for the reaction between the spores and the disinfectant. The ANN-based metamodels were most successful in predicting the number of viable bioaerosols remaining in an arbitrary enclosed space. Sensitivity analysis showed that the mass fraction of the disinfectant, inactivation rate constant, and contact time had the most influence on the inactivation of the spores.

IMPLICATIONS This investigation presents a framework for the development of user-friendly models; metamodels for the prediction of the number of viable spores remaining in an indoor room during disinfection from accurate but time-consuming CFD studies. During any decontamination event, to know when to stop pumping in the disinfectant and to know what level of log reduction of the spores have been achieved before even starting decontamination would provide valuable guidance. The neural network based metamodels can be applied to obtain quick and relatively accurate answers. This would be necessary when immediate information is required during emergencies.     

Temporal variability of groundwater chemistry in shallow and deep aquifers of Araihazar, Bangladesh

Samples were collected every 2-4 weeks from a set of 37 monitoring wells over a period of 2-3 years in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the temporal variability of groundwater composition for As and other constituents. The monitoring wells are grouped in 6 nests and span the 5-91 m depth range. Concentrations of As, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, and S were measured by high-resolution ICPMS with a precision of 5% or better; concentrations of Cl were measured by ion chromatography. In shallow wells <30 m deep, As and P concentrations generally varied by <30%, whereas concentrations of the major ions (Na, K, Mg, Ca and Cl) and the redox-sensitive elements (Fe, Mn, and S) varied over time by up to +/-90%. In wells tapping the deeper aquifers >30 m often below clay layers concentrations of groundwater As were much lower and varied by <10%. The concentrations of major cations also varied by <10% in these deep aquifers. In contrast, the concentration of redox-sensitive constituents Fe, S, and Mn in deep aquifers varied by up to 97% over time. Thus, strong decoupling between variations in As and Fe concentrations is evident in groundwaters from shallow and deep aquifers. Comparison of the time series data with groundwater ages determined by (3)H/(3)He and (14)C dating shows that large seasonal or inter-annual variations in major cation and chloride concentrations are restricted to shallow aquifers and groundwater recharged <5 years ago. There is no corresponding change in As concentrations despite having significant variations of redox sensitive constituents in these very young waters. This is attributed to chemical buffering due to rapid equilibrium between solute and solid As. At two sites where the As content of groundwater in existing shallow wells averages 102 microg/L (range: <5 to 648 microg/L; n=118) and 272 microg/L (range: 10 to 485 microg/L; n=65), respectively, a systematic long-term decline in As concentrations lends support to the notion that flushing may slowly deplete an aquifer of As. Shallow aquifer water with >5 years (3)H/(3)He age show a constant As:P molar ratio of 9.6 over time, suggesting common mechanisms of mobilization.     

Dynamic of inorganic nitrogen and amino sugar to glucosamine addition in forest soils

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Amino sugars (AS) are routinely used as microbial biomarkers to investigate the dynamics of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) under different...     

New remains of the enigmatic cetartiodactyl Bugtitherium grandincisivum Pilgrim, 1908, from the upper Oligocene of the Bugti Hills (Balochistan, Pakistan)

Newly discovered fossil material of the enigmatic cetartiodactyl Bugtitherium grandincisivum from the upper Oligocene of the Bugti Member of the Chitarwata Formation in the Bugti Hills (Balochistan, Pakistan) is reported. These new specimens consist of two fragmentary muzzles (one preserving the first incisors and belonging to a juvenile) and a fragmentary right mandible with m3. The morphologies of the anterior dentition and m3 provided by these new specimens confirm the validity of the genus Bugtitherium and advocate probable anthracotheriid affinity for the genus rather than entelodontid or suoid affinities, but do not definitively close the debate about Bugtitherium’s familial affinities within Cetartiodactyla. Although still poorly documented, this large-sized anthracotheriid-like cetartiodactyl is a possible key form for understanding the early evolution of hippos, and, in turn, the ancestry of whales, because of both its morphological similarities with hippos and primitive Paleogene whales and its Tethysian distribution.     

Air pollution and its economic impacts at household level: willingness to pay for environmental services in Pakistan

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Air pollution has become a major global problem. Thus, the goal of this study was to find out the economic impacts (treatment cost) of air pollution...     

Do risk perceptions and constraints influence the adoption of climate change practices among small livestock herders in Punjab,Pakistan?

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Climate change is severely damaging the agricultural system of many food producing regions worldwide. Small/subsistent livestock herders are the most...     

Landfill site selection by integrating fuzzy logic,AHP, and WLC method based on multi-criteria decision analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Rapid population growth integrated with poor governance and urban planning is highly challenging resulting key for the selection of unsuitable...     

Role of sugarcane industrial byproducts on soil physicochemical properties and metal accumulation in rice

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Sugar industry produces a variety of organic byproducts causing disposal as well as environmental issues. This study investigated the safe use of...     

Spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and oil price volatility to the volatility of stock markets of oil importers and exporters

Economic policy uncertainty generally tends to induce a pessimistic view of future market behaviour. Furthermore, instabilities in global oil prices have serious implications for the economies of oil exporters and importers, due to their over-dependence on crude oil for revenue and production activities, respectively, and thereby on stock market indices. Against limited empirical evidence, this study examines the spillover effects from global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and oil price volatility to the volatility of the stock market indices of oil exporters and importers in both developed and emerging economies. The results show that the spillover effect from GEPU to oil exporters is relatively smaller than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Conversely, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters are relatively larger than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Specifically, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters (importers) in emerging countries are relatively stronger compared to oil exporters (importers) in developed countries. The findings indicate that the volatility of the stock markets of emerging countries is more sensitive to global factors such as GEPU and oil price volatility, and that oil exporters and importers in emerging economies are more sensitive to oil price volatility than oil exporters and importers in developed economies, which is in line with previous studies.

     

Infant and Under-five Mortality in Bangladesh: Discriminant Analysis

Bangladesh is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal 4 relating to infant and under-five mortality because of very rapid reduction in mortality in recent years. But this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may hamper the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4. Therefore,the main objective of this paper is to discuss and compare the different covariates of infant and under-five mortality in the context of overall country, urban and rural levels of Bangladesh using discriminant analysis. For this, the data are taken from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2004. In discriminant analysis,the stepwise procedure has been picked up and only the significant variables are ranked according to the rank of Wilk's Lambda values. The canonical discriminant function coefficients (unstandardized and standardized) for the predictor variables have also been calculated. Both the results show that breastfeeding is the most important variable in discriminating the two groups of mothers,i.e., mothers experiencing to infant mortality or not and mothers experiencing to under-five mortality or not. The related results of discriminant function also indicate that the discriminant function is statistically significant and discriminates well. Therefore, improvements in the health system are essential for promoting the breastfeeding practices (both inclusive and exclusive), which may be the effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information.